Jets/Dolphins on MNF
What a great game lined up tonight for Monday Night Football. Division rivals who always play hard especially on monday night. The Jets are coming in 3-1, while the Dolphins are a disapointing 1-3 after taking the AFC east division last year. The linesmakers put the Dolphins at 1 point home dogs, with money coming in on the Jets, the line has properly moved to -3 in favor of NY.
We all know the Dolphins love to run, they have outrushed every opponent they have faced this year. Ronnie Brown has effectively run the wildcat this season, the Dolphins are averaging 183 yards per game with a 5 yard per carry average. The Jets are giving up about 100 yards per game on the ground, while playing against some pretty decent backs. I would expect the Dolphins to try to run a lot tonight with their 1-2 punch of Brown and Williams. There is no way they run on Rex Ryans defense, not the way they ran on Buffalo. They will learn quickly that Chad Henne has no chance passing against the Jets. The Jets are giving up and average of 170 yards per game through the air, pretty impressive considering they've played Hou, NE, Ten, and NO. Last week the Dolphins ran (44 attempts) twice as many times as they passed (22 attempts). If they are forced into that this game they are doomed, the Jets will be able to key in on the run with the speed the have on defense. Pennington was dangerous in the air, Henne is just there to manage the game.
Something interesting about the Dolphins is their ability to shut down the run. They have not allowed over 70 yards rushing in any game this season. They should be able to stop the Jets from running. The Jets don't live and die by the run though, and the Dolphins give up almost 250 yards per game in the air. If the Jets are not able to run north and south with Thomas Jones, I can see outside swings and screens to Leon Washington, a Felix Jones type playmaker. Mark Sanchez has played well this season, he made some rookie mistakes last week against an exceptional defense. The Dolphins should bring the pressure, I just don't see it being effective. I believe Rex Ryan and his staff worked all week with Sanchez, learning to avoid making those mistakes again.
New York also have a new addition to the offense. A Pro-Bowl player just 2 years ago, who has had a history of dropped passes. Personally I think Edwards needed a change of scenery and Jets coaches have been impressed with his ability to quickly catch on to the offense. Which will be huge tonight if Jerrico Cotchery is unable to play, considering he didn't practice friday.
The weather should be nice in Miami tonight, around 89 degrees and 10 mph winds. Miami advantages: rushing, rushing defense, time of possesion, points scored. Jets advantages: passing, overall defense, coaching, special teams. I'd have to give the Jets the edge overall tonight, they might not score a ton of points, but they remind me of the Ravens of 2008. Rookie QB, killer defense that keeps them in the game, and a conservative game plan to protect the young QB. I don't think the Dolphins are in the same league as the Jets, if the Dolphin rushing game is stopped, they will be exposed as a 1 dimensional team. Miami lost by 10 or more in the two games where they were held between 100 and 150 yards on the ground. I see the same situation tonight.
I would have loved the get this game at -1, of course I waited too late and got it at -2. I still feel -3 is a good bet in this situation. The Jets are coming off a loss to a good team and the Dolphins are coming off a win against a bad team. Defense will be the difference tonight.
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Originally Posted by 2daBank
This was postedahead of time