[TheSkeptic]

16-9-1 on the season so far - Ive been making money in the NFL for the first time!

This week's picks:
Oakland +15.5 @ NYG:
Eli is banged up, they will try to control the clock with the run - Oakland's game plan will be to not get embarrassed...think they keep it within the spread. Hard to beat any NFL team by over 2 TDs and I believe the Giants are overvalued here. Giants by 10.

Carolina -4:
Carolina comes off a bye after a tough game against the Cowboys who they played close most of the game. Washington's 2 wins come against winless teams...and they should have lost to TB last week. I don't believe their 3rd win will come against another winless team! Steve Smith has started to heat up but the key to Carolina's success will be to get back to the run. Carolina wins by more than a TD.

Bengals +8.5:
Its always tough when you have a divisional game just to win, let alone win by more than a touchdown! The Bengals stunk up the joint at Cleveland last week and were lucky to come away with a win after giving up a 14 pt lead. The Ravens are probably still bitter over the "bad calls" they got in New England last week. I think Baltimore squeaks out a late win but does not cover.

Pats -3:
The Broncos are the strangest 4-0 team I think ive ever seen. Their first win came off of a bizarre deflection. Their next 2 wins came against the hapless Browns and Raiders. You could give the defense the win last week but New England is going to put points on the board this week and comes out battle tested against a potential playoff opponent in Baltimore. The cold weather should not be a factor as the Northeast is getting ready for the cold weather itself. New England embarrasses Denver's #2 ranked D.

Indy -4:
This is a gimmee. Indianapolis is the best team in the league right now. Peyton Manning looks unstoppable...I've been playing the Titans for the last 3 weeks and they are responsible for 1/3 of my losses! This season is not last season and I don't know whether its the loss of Haynesworth or the lack of offensive production at QB but they stink this year! This may look like Vegas is begging you to take Indy, but I'm begging you - take Indy! Tennessee's game plan will be to extend drives and leave Manning on the bench. Ask Miami how that worked out for them...if David Garrard can victimize this defense imagine what the best QB in the league is going to do. Take it to the bank - Indy wins by 2 scores.


GL everyone!

[TheSkeptic]

Not so great last week - let's hope for better this week! No write ups as posting from my BlackBerry
Saints -3
Ravens +3
Cincy -3.5
Chiefs +7 buying half
Panthers -3
Pats/titans under 37
Gl all!

[TheSkeptic]

Good day today - went 4-2...who could have seen me being on the wrong side of history again with the pats 59-0 drubbing of the titans!? Squeaked by with a close one with Baltimore...KC and Carolina also both came down to the final plays of the game. Still, a win is a win!

Stayed away from sunday night, so here are the plays for Monday:

Denver +3.5 - to win 2 units
Denver ML (+160) - 2 units
OVER 44 - to win 2 units

NFL saving my bacon this year so here's to some more $$$!

[TheSkeptic]

MNF write-up

Denver come into Monday Night a perfect 5-0 and 5-0 ATS. They also come in going under 5/5 times. They find themselves 3.5 point dogs at San Diego. San Diego come off a bye and look to get a little healthier, but you name a player on defense and they're probably carrying an injury. Denver on the other hand is almost at 100% and bring the stingiest D in the league to town giving up an astonishing 8PPG.

Denver has advantages in total yards, rushing yards, time of possession and allowed just 28% of 3rd downs to be converted against them. I believe these divisional games are won in the trenches and Denver's offensive line is arguably the best in the league while San Diego's D line is banged up and has allowed 150 rushing YPG. Moreno/Buckhalter should be able to find large gaps in the SD D and open up the play action pass for Orton who has been nothing short of a revelation so far for Denver this season.

I have Denver as 6 point FAVORITES in this game and so have put 2 units on the spread and ML. I think this total (44) is pretty close to the number but will give the nod to the over, given the bright lights of MNF. I'll also fade the 5 consecutive unders that Denver has posted.

[TheSkeptic]

CASH IT BABY! 3-0 on MNF a very nice end to weekend! Congrats to all those who were with me.

[100Dimes]

Nice picks man

[TheSkeptic]

Upset Alerts Galore in the NFL this Weekend!

I think there's some really good value in this week's NFL lines. I have 3 complete upsets scheduled in my picks this week, although to be safe, I will take the points.

SD @ KC (+5)
Seen a lot pick this on the board this week and I agree - Kansas City has improved enough to pull off the upset. San Diego is eroding by the week and this is a divisional game AT Arrowhead with the home team GETTING 5. At worst, KC loses by a field goal. This has upset written all over it though: KC 21 - SD 17

Indianapolis (-14) @ St. Louis
Peyton Manning is playing at a different level to everyone else in the league right now. He appears to be carrying this team all the way to the Super Bowl at this rate. St. Louis is one of the worst teams I've seen in a long time. The dome will make Manning feel as if he was at his old home, the RCA dome, and he will tear up St. Louis's secondary. I predict 5 TD passes. Indy 38 - 10 St. Louis.

Bills (+7) @ Panthers
Don't look now, but here come the Buffalo Bills! A nice win over NYJ last week and they are right back in the fight for the AFC East (kinda). Carolina has not been very good this year - needing last minute drives to beat both Washington and Tampa Bay. The Bills are better than both these teams and although they do bring in the worst Rushing D in the league, I look for them to improve against a 1 dimensional Carolina team. They are also big favorites in the turnover battle and I look for them to squeeze out a 19-17 win.

Falcons (+4.5) @ Cowboys
Sometimes you just wonder about these lines. I am always a big fan of taking lines where they are "begging" you. This number is wrong and Atlanta can beat Dallas outright. I don't know if Cowboys homers are keeping this line at 4.5 but you should take this at anything greater than 3. Matt Ryan is for real and Tony Romo is not. Falcons 31-28 Cowboys.

Honorable Mention: 49ers (+3) at Houston. - not betting this game, but if you need another pick, I like this one

[joeygats]

hmm looks really good. with u on atl and bills. lets cash these in..gl man

[TheSkeptic]

Wow, very accurate on 2 picks...very inaccurate on 2! Finished 2-2 for Sunday Day games but actually made a profit after I played SD 2nd half line (didn't post, so no credit). I'm on the wrong side of the public with tonight's pick, but that's not always a bad thing.

Arizona have the stingiest rush defense in the league so far, after having allowed just 55 yards rushing in their previous game at Seattle. They are 2-0 on the road and 2-0 ATS on the road. In fact, whereas last year, they were unbeatable at home, they have arguably played their best football this year away from home.

The Giants come off their first loss of the season at New Orleans where they were quite frankly embarrassed. Drew Brees was able to pick apart the Giants secondary and I expect Warner to be able to do the same with Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston to throw to. I expect the Cards to pay only lip service to the run and light up the board with the passing game. This is another game the dog can definitely win outright, yet is getting OVER A TOUCHDOWN!

I will take Arizona +8 and Over 46.5 for 2 units a piece. I have this game as Giants by an FG.

ps: did you know that favorites are a scary 9-1-1 today??? Gotta be some love for the dog, right??

[100Dimes]

dont know what scores your lookin at but only looks like 1 of them hit to me... lookin like Cards are gonna hit sooo 2-4?? ouch

[TheSkeptic]

Uhh, Indy -14 and Buffalo +7 both winners...

Went 1-1 again tonight so just paid juice today. Giants should have gone for it on 4 and goal at 2 but Coughlin too conservative, otherwise would have probably got the over!

[joeygats]

u should follow picks instead of makin them. cause spliting is never good.especially cause of the juice u pay out.

[TheSkeptic]

dude, im 29-18 on the season. Splitting a day is better than losing outright! Today was a day where favorites went 9-2 ATS...that doesn't happen very often. Oh, and the 2 dogs that won - i called both of them!

[TheSkeptic]

Monday Night Football:
Went 3-0 last week on MNF, so look to cap this juice-giving weekend off with a 2-0 finish!

Eagles:
Come in off a putrid loss to Oakland where their only wins have been against putrid Tampa Bay (0-7), abysmal Carolina (2-4), and terrible Kansas City (1-6). They've definitely got fat off of these awful teams, beating them by an average of 23 points. They bring in an excellent pass D and a middling rush D.

Redskins:
Similar to the Eagles, the Redskins have played some awful teams this year (Carolina, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, KC). Unlike the Eagles, they have a paltry 2-4 record. Their franchise is in disarray after having their head coach banned from play calling (like that'll solve it). All of Washington's games have been decided by 8 points or less, including their opener against the much hyped NYG. They can't score much, but they also have a pretty good defense (their one bright spot) which is ranked #7 overall, #3 against the pass.

It seems like this should be a bounce back game for Philly, but Monday Night Football always seems to have a surprise in store for us. I look for a low scoring game with Washington covering the 7.5.

Eagles 20 - 14 Redskins

So I'll be placing 2 unit parlay on the Redskins +7.5 and UNDER 37.

GL!

[TheSkeptic]

I have ZERO chance of hitting my parlay! Ehh, maybe 2% chance.

[TheSkeptic]

Ive downgraded the 2% chance to a ZERO chance

[joeygats]

Ive downgraded the 2% chance to a ZERO chance

sry man.like i said tho just follow plays.cause i cant pick winners either. but i am on philly for a measly 25.

[TheSkeptic]

Philly pk (-110) 2nd half - 4 units

[TheSkeptic]

^ Bad move. Everytime I bet a second half line, team is shut out...you can take that to the bank! Oh well, NFL over - onto College!

[TheSkeptic]

Alright let's get NFL back on track with a little "close call parlay."

Indy -12
Dallas -9.5
Chargers -16.5

5 units wins 17.5 units if 3/3
5 units wins 2.5 units if 2/3
ties lose (which would only come into play on indy -12)

GL!