[Totolover1409]

dont have any access to look at public trends, but does anyone see RLM's this week?

[rezkoness69]

go to google, type in bet tracker, click the first link

[JGILL50]

im on my mobile but detroit is one

[Totolover1409]

I heard a lot of these free sites don't give you accurate public trends. You have to pay for em to get accurate trends.

[jon13009]

Potential RLMs - but most are not usable.
from: http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...-betting-chart

STL (v. MIN at STL) 11% (10348 bets) +10 (open) to +9.5: RLM 0.5 - problem - RLM not >1.0 points
WAS (v. CAR at CAR) 23% (10386 bets) +4.5 (open) to +3.5: RLM 1.0 - problem - WAS is away
DET (v. PIT at DET) 20% (10396 bets) +11.5 (open) to +10.5: RLM 1.0 - good possibility - need to monitor
DEN (v. NE at DEN) 19% (13601 bets) +3.5 (open) to +3: RLM 0.5 - problem - RLM not > 1.0 points

The Detroit game has potential, but -as with all RLMs- you need to monitor the spreads (RLMs > 1.0) and % bet (< 30% bet is best).
I am wary of taking RLMs on a visiting team (WAS) for obvious reasons, and, as always, do your handicapping homework (why is a RLM being served up by Vegas?).

[Totolover1409]

Great info. thanks man

[Robust]

washington is a great candidate now.. not sure why the above poster says no good because they are not home..??

anyway.. good luck!

Robust

[Robust]

and here is DET RLM for ya to consider.. the % of bets (over 60%), the movement of 1 pt, the bet amounts over 10,000 ALL suggest these are great plays if you follow RLM..

Robust

[jon13009]

Originally Posted by Robust

washington is a great candidate now.. not sure why the above poster says no good because they are not home..??

anyway.. good luck!

Robust

Sorry, WAS is a RLM....

I am just a bit wary of using this criteria for an away team. (I need to handicap further to determine if WAS is a viable bet overall).

My criteria for a good RLM is a home team with less than 30% bet (if the bet % is >40% then it is not a RLM) on that team (over 5000 bets made) and a RLM of 1.0 points or more (unless the spread is greater than +/- 16 points then the RLM should be >=1.5 points). If these criteria are met, then I will consider it to be a good RLM to consider.

If the home team is the underdog, this is the classic - Fade the public, take the home dog - philosophy. The kicker being you are taking Vegas' side against the public since they are steering the public to take the overwheliming favorite - versus trying to even out the betting percentages.

This criteria is based on personal experience.
If the criteria is not met, then I need to handicap the game further before making a bet.

[Robust]

Originally Posted by jon13009

Sorry, WAS is a RLM....

I am just a bit wary of using this criteria for an away team. (I need to handicap further to determine if WAS is a viable bet overall).

My criteria for a good RLM is a home team with less than 30% bet (if the bet % is >40% then it is not a RLM) on that team (over 5000 bets made) and a RLM of 1.0 points or more (unless the spread is greater than +/- 16 points then the RLM should be >=1.5 points). If these criteria are met, then I will consider it to be a good RLM to consider.

If the home team is the underdog, this is the classic - Fade the public, take the home dog - philosophy. The kicker being you are taking Vegas' side against the public since they are steering the public to take the overwheliming favorite - versus trying to even out the betting percentages.

This criteria is based on personal experience.
If the criteria is not met, then I need to handicap the game further before making a bet.

very nice!

you have a plan, you have a strategy, and you are keeping in your comfort level.. that is ACES in my book!!



now to the stats a bit..

WAS loses by -1.5 scoring margin.. adjusted scoring margin (toss the biggest win and biggest loser) is ALSO -1.5.. Car has a scoring margin of -16.67 and adjusted (only 3 games, so the number is off) is STILL -14..

these numbers mean carolina CAN'T cover in a win and WAS CAN cover in a loss..

A field goal +.5 is the way to play this for me.. then there is RLM.. and you can tease WAS to 7.5 in a 2-picker with DEN or Hou..

I like that you have a plan for all this.. stick to your guns and win some $$!!

good luck!!

Robust

[Totolover1409]

Thanks a lot guys. So according to your requirements, jon, Pitt with 80% of the public betting on em and over 26427 bets and a line movement from -11.5 to -10.5 (1 point) is ideal. But bodog has the line back at -11 now, making it only a .5 point movement, so thats a no-go right?

[D. Brackets]

gl

[Robust]

Originally Posted by Totolover1409

Thanks a lot guys. So according to your requirements, jon, Pitt with 80% of the public betting on em and over 26427 bets and a line movement from -11.5 to -10.5 (1 point) is ideal. But bodog has the line back at -11 now, making it only a .5 point movement, so thats a no-go right?

yup.. i wouldn't play it.. been burned on half point rlms before..

but some people do bet them..

good luck!

Robust

[KingKing]

as of now looking at sbrodds all these game have RLM right?

wash
cle
det
atl
den

thanks and BEST of luck!!!

[Robust]

Originally Posted by KingKing

as of now looking at sbrodds all these game have RLM right?

wash
cle
det
atl
den

thanks and BEST of luck!!!

I have noticed that sbrodds misleads some opening numbers.. like jax/sea.. they have it at +-3.. but i was LOOKING at the lines when they were opened at 5pm CST yesterday. it opened at +-1..

google bet tracker to get a better list..

Robust

[Robust]

these are RLM for this week:

%Bets Team Total bets Opener Current
23% WAS 38359 +4.5 +4
20% DET 34604 +11.5 +10.5
25% DEN 49093 +3.5 +3

there are no other RLMs for football this week that I saw.

good luck!

Robust

[KingKing]

Originally Posted by Robust

these are RLM for this week:

%Bets Team Total bets Opener Current
23% WAS 38359 +4.5 +4
20% DET 34604 +11.5 +10.5
25% DEN 49093 +3.5 +3

there are no other RLMs for football this week that I saw.

good luck!

Robust

Thanks very much Robust this info is much appreciated!
looking forward to seeing how this plays out...
thanks again for providing this info this week and in the weeks to come
best of luck!!

[Timmay]

Originally Posted by Robust

I have noticed that sbrodds misleads some opening numbers.. like jax/sea.. they have it at +-3.. but i was LOOKING at the lines when they were opened at 5pm CST yesterday. it opened at +-1..

google bet tracker to get a better list..

Robust

Yea, I saw that it was closed and then on sportsbook it's at -1.5 and on bodog it's
2. But I don't know the opening line. I'm passing on that game. My dad likes Jack.
It's too much of a coin flip for me, I would take Jack ML if there was one.

[jon13009]

Originally Posted by Robust

these are RLM for this week:

%Bets Team Total bets Opener Current
23% WAS 38359 +4.5 +4
20% DET 34604 +11.5 +10.5
25% DEN 49093 +3.5 +3

there are no other RLMs for football this week that I saw.

good luck!

Robust

Good job this week so far....Vegas is doing its job and throwing money our way...

WAS - W (+4) WAS 17 - CAR 20
DET - W (+10.5) DET 20 - PIT 28

[jon13009]

RLM NFL Week 5 2009
100% (3-0)

WAS - W (+4) WAS 17 - CAR 20
DET - W (+10.5) DET 20 - PIT 28
DEN - W (+3) DEN 20 - NE 17

If only it were really this easy every week....

[Totolover1409]

Great calls guys. Hopefully its this easy next weekend.

[SportsTerminator]

Wow if only I would have seen this before...

[Totolover1409]

next weekend is another weekend to make money.

[Zou_fan]

Hope next weekend works out as well.

[Totolover1409]

10/19/2009
08:35 PM 235 - Denver Broncos

236 - San Diego Chargers
9090 +3.5 -104
-3.5 -104 +4 -110
-4 102

[Totolover1409]

Sorry guys, ^ looks likes a mess. So from what I've learned from kingking, jon, and robust, this one could be a potential RLM. 64% of the public is betting on the Denver broncos and the line has moved from +3.5 to +4.

The only problem with this one is that the line movement is only by .5 and it should be 1 point and im waiting for the the 36% to go lower.



Is that right?

[Robust]

Originally Posted by Totolover1409

Sorry guys, ^ looks likes a mess. So from what I've learned from kingking, jon, and robust, this one could be a potential RLM. 64% of the public is betting on the Denver broncos and the line has moved from +3.5 to +4.

The only problem with this one is that the line movement is only by .5 and it should be 1 point and im waiting for the the 36% to go lower.



Is that right?

yup! saw that yesterday.. half point moves do not meet my criteria.. but I keep looking every few hours

Criteria:
1 pt move or more
over 60% of bets on one side
over 10,000 bets placed

Robust

[Robust]

over 10,000 bets now.. but not 1 pt.. btw.. if you're looking at this line, the play could be SD, NOT Den..

also CHI and ATL is 1/2 pt rlm.. the play could be CHI..

keep looking at the lines and posting.. but some never go to 1 pt..

Robust

[Robust]

look at GB also.. capable of massive RLM.. but the percentages are not there (52% on the wrong side) but it could move the percentages the other way with a +13.5 dog as bettors post up... just fyi... but NOT RLM yet!

Robust

[Totolover1409]

Good look. I'll keep this thread updated if I see the movement from .5 to 1

[DeluxeLiner]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/222368-nfl-rlm-reverse-line-movement-2009-a.html

This will help those that are interested.

[Robust]

Originally Posted by Robust

over 10,000 bets now.. but not 1 pt.. btw.. if you're looking at this line, the play could be SD, NOT Den..

line just reversed itself.. no play!

Originally Posted by Robust

also CHI and ATL is 1/2 pt rlm.. the play could be CHI..

at -3 -121, line is gonna reverse itself soon to -3.5.. no play!

Originally Posted by Robust

keep looking at the lines and posting.. but some never go to 1 pt..

Robust

keep looking.. but those two seem like no plays now

Robust

[KingKing]

lets stay on this guys!
thanks very much robust, your insight is much apprecaited..
very best of luck wished!

[Sidetracked]

there is going to be RLM on the ravens game, its @ 3 now but will move down to 2 within the next few days, get ravens at 3 while you can!

[daneblazer]

I don't know if I'd take Baltimore at less than +3. Minnesota is a tough home team and Baltimore usually plays like junk in domes and on turf.