[picantel]

Last night it was:
Carolina -1.5

at around 10:30 e.s.t. this morning it was:
Carolina pk

Now at 11:26 e.s.t. it is:
Carolina +1

I will assume it takes big money to move it that much?

[BuddyBear]

Sharps are on TB. They are moving the line easily today. Go with TB in this one.

[picantel]

I would love to but I already had too much on carolina. bleh

[mad]

Moving like mad?
Moving like me?
Must be a smooth mover then!
LMAO.

[picantel]

24-7 carolina now. long ways to go but I am feeling okie dokie now lol.

[slacker00]

24-7 carolina now. long ways to go but I am feeling okie dokie now lol.

Crap, I shoulda woke up before kickoff. lmao. I'd have jumped on Carolina +1. I really loved Carolina today. I still stuck for 4 units on it on Carolina-1. I'm still learning.

[kdmfox]

Sharps are on TB. They are moving the line easily today. Go with TB in this one.

Ummmmmm ... ok, sure ... uh huh ... Stuff like this makes me chuckle ... More often than not, when you are influenced and go with the changing line, you lose ... If you go to the racetrack and the 3 people in front of you all bet on the same pony you like, get out of line and look for a new pick FAST!!!!!

[BuddyBear]

Ummmmmm ... ok, sure ... uh huh ... Stuff like this makes me chuckle ... More often than not, when you are influenced and go with the changing line, you lose ... If you go to the racetrack and the 3 people in front of you all bet on the same pony you like, get out of line and look for a new pick FAST!!!!!

ummmmm.....yeah it doesn't hit 100% of the time dude. Check out all the games that had sharp line movements on them yesterday and see if you reach the same conclusion. Your horse racing concept is examing different concepts...its pretty much worthless in the context you've presented it in.

Over the long haul, it's a very successful system. You just have to be patient and grind it out.

[BuddyBear]

Pretty easy to come when the score is 24-7 and make comments...you didn't have anything to say beforehand either....that's how the haters work. Once the score comes out and they feel safe and they begin to talk. Talk before and not after the fact.

[picantel]

the rout is on go carolina. 34-7

[BuddyBear]

congrats picantel...it's nice to have a win like that! No sweat just figure out what your next bet is going to be and good luck wth that one!

[kdmfox]

Pretty easy to come when the score is 24-7 and make comments...you didn't have anything to say beforehand either....that's how the haters work. Once the score comes out and they feel safe and they begin to talk. Talk before and not after the fact.

I was referring to the concept and not that particular game ... I'm one of the few on here with others that offers picks and reasons why ... This is gambling and a very inexact science ... To suggest that it anything but is hilarious.

[maritime]

This is a question that I have been pondering fow a while that has to do with this type of line movement. I think it is safe to say that all books ideally would like to have an equal amount of action of both sides of a line. I am curious to get feedback from other bettors regarding the following theory:

Lets say a book is getting more action on 1 side (for example let's say Carolina in this case). Would they ever move a line close to game time in the opposite direction (as in this case, Carolina went from the favorite at -1.5 to a dog at +1) in order to make bettors think that there is something they don't know and that now the "smart/wise" play is on the very same team that they have been getting less action on.

The end result here could be the stimulation of more action on Tampa Bay close to game time in an effort to give them closer to an equal amount on both sides.

[BuddyBear]

I was referring to the concept and not that particular game ... I'm one of the few on here with others that offers picks and reasons why ... This is gambling and a very inexact science ... To suggest that it anything but is hilarious.

Okay KDM...fair enough I must have misinterpreted. You have to understand, I consider myself a line movement theorist. I truly believe that the answers lie in the lines if you study them carefully enough, the direction, the key numbers, public percetion, the factors that drive a line one way or another, unnatural line movement, etc...

Remember, you don't have to be right everytime...you just have to be right slightly more than you lose. I am still trying to work on a system that can do that.....i've been working with a range of variables and theories to try to develop this formula but so far it's still in its formative stages. I'll keep everyone updated on it though.

Keep up the good posts here KDM!

[slacker00]

Sharps are on TB. They are moving the line easily today. Go with TB in this one.

BuddyBear, why did you think sharps were playing TB? Time of day the line moved or magnitude of movement? I've never seen a line move of two points overnight right before kickoff. This one's got me scratching my head. But, how do you know it wasn't some wacko contingent or something moving the line. They've got money too.

[maritime]

Obviously there is no way to know for sure what moved the line, but as I mentioned above, it seems plausible that a book, a large book, might benefit by moving the line on their own intentionally shortly before gametime in order to get the reaction I'm sure it got today with this game - more action on Tampa Bay because "somebody knows something we don't." Perhaps this is a strategy to help them obtain more balanced action on both sides of a bet, that up until that point had mostly been one-sided. In a way, it's like the chicken or the egg...did the action make the book move the line or did the line movement make the action change?....I don't know. Food for thought.

[slacker00]

Obviously there is no way to know for sure what moved the line, but as I mentioned above, it seems plausible that a book, a large book, might benefit by moving the line on their own intentionally shortly before gametime in order to get the reaction I'm sure it got today with this game - more action on Tampa Bay because "somebody knows something we don't." Perhaps this is a strategy to help them obtain more balanced action on both sides of a bet, that up until that point had mostly been one-sided. In a way, it's like the chicken or the egg...did the action make the book move the line or did the line movement make the action change?....I don't know. Food for thought.

Oh, I thought you were joking around when you said that. Hard to believe this trick would ever work. Maybe this is what happened with the MNF Pittsburgh-Baltimore game a week ago. Seems like easy money if they do this very often. Just look for a queer looking line move, and use the info.

[BuddyBear]

BuddyBear, why did you think sharps were playing TB? Time of day the line moved or magnitude of movement? I've never seen a line move of two points overnight right before kickoff. This one's got me scratching my head. But, how do you know it wasn't some wacko contingent or something moving the line. They've got money too.

Good question Slacker...I could literally write a term paper on this or even a short essay but here are some reasons. Here are some reasons:

1) Sharps generally play underdogs

2) Sharps generally play home underdogs

3) Sharsps generally bet against the public

4) Sharps play big on public (mis)perception from week to week.

The prior week, Carolina destroyed Minn and TB lost to a really bad team in SF. Hence you have a situation where the public is going to be on CAR based on their most recent performance. You have what's known as a saliency effect or in the acadmia it's known as priming.

Of course public reaction is factored into the line so sharps know that there is more value wiht .


5) Factor in TB's defense at home getting points, it's only natural sharps would be on Tampa. Plus there were a lot of strong trends that indicated TB as well.

However...it doesn't always work out like that. But you only have to be right slightly more than you are wrong in this business!

They'll be other games.

[darkghost]

Nice points you bring up BuddyBear. I too believe in following line movements and betting against the "public" pick. And over the long haul betting w/ the line movement against the team the public loves will bring home the money. Unfortunately it didn't happen in this instance.

[BuddyBear]

Nice points you bring up BuddyBear. I too believe in following line movements and betting against the "public" pick. And over the long haul betting w/ the line movement against the team the public loves will bring home the money. Unfortunately it didn't happen in this instance.

Really tough day for bet against the public players all around yesterday!