[Dexter]

a few plays were booked last night....

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...ml#post2332486

(2x) under panthers 37.5 - with carolina 0-3 and off their bye week, i fully expect them to lean on their strength - the running game with D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The skins remain one of the weaker offenses in the league with a pretty decent defense.

(3x) giants -13 (A2 - Autobet) fade any team that plays on the east coast at 1pm when their is a 3 hour time difference from their home state for a minimum of 2x.

(2x) over ravens 42 - the ravens defense has not been as lights out as expected. they've given up 20+ points in 3 of their 4 games. in comes a very dangerous bengals offense led by carson palmer. baltimore is not the same grind it out/boring run offense that they've been in past years. cam cameron has gotten very creative with ray rice and the rocket arm of joe flacco. both teams have played to the high in 3 of 4 games this year.

(3x) lions +11 (A4 - Autobet) play any home dog getting 7-13 points off a game in which they scored 6-27 points, and are facing a team that is coming off a home win as a favorite for 2x min. (A5 - Autobet) fade any team who just won a nationally televised game for a min of 1x.

(2x) 49ers -2.5 - ive had the niners in all 4 covers so far - not stopping now especially vs a team they have dominated at home recently (4-1 su/ats)

(2x) under 49ers 41 - a nice combo of 2 running teams with pretty good defenses. a lot of value on a total of 40+ in this spot. opened at 42.5, and the wiseguys have already sent it down to 40.5 in a few spots. 4 straight in sf have gone under when these 2 met.

(5x) over cards 48 - no reason to overthink this one. the cards are coming off a bye week and should have all the engines ready to go with this underperforming world class offense. strolling into the dessert comes the defensively challenged texans who also have quite the array of offensive weapons.

(2x) jets -2 - the jets are 4-1 su/5-0 ats their last 5 in mia.

(2x) under jets 37

[Sweatyguido]

giants -16.5 at my book, with a hindered manning, g-men might have to rely on running game to win this one. which should not be a problem but i expect a more conservative, grind em out Coughlin game plan. Seems like a spot where giants play down to the level of their competitor and be happy with controlling the clock. with that said, consider the under 40.5. I'm feeling a final of 24-13.

[waggle]

Nice work last week Dex, thank you

[artist]

Hahhah dude you should like a ****en robot hahhaha a autobet x2 time zone 3 hrs autobet x3 LOL

[gilbert91016]

got to love that raven over. Good work last week

[handimann]

Dexter, would you still go with the Giants -16 and a questionable Eli? I am going to wait until Saturday or Sunday morning for this one because of Eli.

[cgars1]

DEX have you given up on the Titans? Tough spot Sunday night against Indy...Manning is money on prime time...I can't believe this team can go 0-5!!!! or can this be a prime place to grab some money back, dog at home Sunday night prime time ML play +160...we have time to stew on this one...eventually the Titans need to pay me back!!!

[Robust]

Originally Posted by cgars1

DEX have you given up on the Titans? Tough spot Sunday night against Indy...Manning is money on prime time...I can't believe this team can go 0-5!!!! or can this be a prime place to grab some money back, dog at home Sunday night prime time ML play +160...we have time to stew on this one...eventually the Titans need to pay me back!!!

i've held firm through 4 weeks.. the idiot i am.. now I am afraid.. they play very well, but manage to lose and not cover.. so this must be the week they do it cuz i am avoiding the game.. and will miss out on the payback.. lol

good luck!

Robust

[woody78]

Like the CAR/Skins under. Skins will be lucky to get 10-13 points.

[twentyonekid]

good luck dexter...lets keep rolling buddy

[Dexter]

16.5 is tough.....i would play it just perhaps weight it less.

rule # ? in sports gambling - dont ever let the book scare you off a game. if you like the game, play it. if you LOVE an under after capping the game, and the book puts out a total of 27.5, PLAY IT.

[Dexter]

(1x) rams +10 (A5)

[rezkoness69]

rams +10?? Its around +15 at every book

[alukk]

dexter just curious, whats ur record?

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by alukk

dexter just curious, whats ur record?

wow....putting me on the spot huh

im around 55% in the nfl an am +5 units ytd.

that week 3 killed me. but i bounced back for +10x last week.

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by rezkoness69

rams +10?? Its around +15 at every book

your thinking of oak

[yorksdicks]

any tennesee backers??

[EastsidaProduct]

Oakland (+15.5)
Cincy (+8.5)
Detroit (+10.5)
Miami (+1.5)
_____________________ <---u'll cee

[Dexter]

cant argue playing all dogs in the nfl.

[Dexter]

wow - someone dropped a few bricks at the window today on my over cards 5xer! (up 2 pts from 48 to 50)

[handimann]

Wow, I definitely loved that Cardinals over 48 bet, but maybe I'll weigh it less.

Eli looks like he's gonna play but I'm worried that the Raiders will make it less than 16 during garbage time like the Chiefs did last week.

[stocker08]

Minnesota will cover that 10 point spread against the rams. Undefeated team against one of the worst teams in the league.....

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by stocker08

Minnesota will cover that 10 point spread against the rams. Undefeated team against one of the worst teams in the league.....

if only sports betting were that simple

[rezkoness69]

yea, my bad you're right i was thinkin of the buccs actually. If there was ever a week in the history of NFL betting to bet all underdogs, this would be the week. Some of these lines are just so inflated with the books really getting pissed about how many tickets they're cashing out, but the hard part is trying to figure out which ones are off. I think the Vikes cover and Eagles cover. I think the Giants and Cowboys don't. Not bettin any of those doublie figure or close to double figure games though, execpt maybe minnesota if I can find it at 9.5. I was seriosly considering waiting until 10 minutes before kick-off of the noon games, afternoon games, and night game and just blindly betting the dog and under this upcoming sunday. Might still do it actually...

[solobass]

nice picks dex. last week was my roughest so far. i have also made a lot of hay with the 49ers but not all 4 games, nice calls! right now my only booked play is bengals +9. your comments about the ravens defense are spot on, they give up an average of 20 a game right now.

[solobass]

rezko, the limitations are on the oddsmakers not us on the other side of the window. for example if a game (talking just nfl here) turns out to be 38-10 there are very few instances in which the line would have been as high as -28. still, the highest spread on the board is -15, but the actual difference in the game with the largest point differential will be much higher than 15 points. i do believe dogs, especially select road dogs are good plays this week but do not get carried away with it. best of luck!

[solobass]

if/when the redskins go to +4 i will bet that. 3.5 is a tad too close for my comfort, but i like this game more than a lot of the 1:00 games. the redskins have a good shot at winning SU. they are a terrible bet as a favorite but have value as a dog with their defense only allowing 15.5 a game.

[Mendozaaaa]

just curious dex. What's the record of your A5 bets this year?

[RoagBettor]

Dex, these picks look really solid. I'm going to tease a few of them tomorrow.

Thanks for the analysis.

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by Mendozaaaa

just curious dex. What's the record of your A5 bets this year?

5-3

[shoebox]

Chiefs +10 may not need to buy it up.... 6 u play of the day right here people! will wait till tomorrow
panthers -4 3 u booked
patriots -3 3 u booked
titans +4 3 u booked

[Sweatyguido]

i play alot of teasers, what u think of a 7 pt teaser: dallas -0.5 over kc, san fran +4.5 over atl, jax +8.5 over sea? 100 to win 140

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by shoebox

Chiefs +10 may not need to buy it up.... 6 u play of the day right here people! will wait till tomorrow
panthers -4 3 u booked
patriots -3 3 u booked
titans +4 3 u booked

there is no way in hell that line goes up to 10. i like the pick though. kc is due to get going now with cassell having played a few games.

like the panthers off a bye week (fox is a good coach and car is in a must win spot. skins dont need the game as bad). i may add this tomorrow the more i think about it.

like the pats play

like the titans play as well...

[shoebox]

Im looking for it to hit 8.5 or 9 and buy it up to 10, with the cowboys being a very public team I think the line has a chance to get there. Pats play is the only one I had to think twice about, Mcdaniels knows that offense, figure its gonna be master vs student lesson. Watch the gameplan tomorrow to be somewhat unorthodox. This will be crucial due to the fact that Mcdaniels knows the teams strengths and weakness....

[kotzwell88]

any ML pics?