[EliteCapper]

WEEK 1: 5-2 (+4.8 Units)
WEEK 2: 4-1 (+2.9 Units)
WEEK 3: 4-3 (-.4 Units)
TOTAL: 13-6 (+7.3 Units)

[BGboothA]

Let's get'em ELITE

[DanOmaha]

I've been on the last 2 weeks - let's keep it going, EC!

[EliteCapper]

Was -5.5

[HawaiiFan]

I'm on it! I hope they romp because I also have them for the game

[Mybologne]

elite where do you get was -5.5?

[EliteCapper]

elite where do you get was -5.5?

All my lines are my local

[HawaiiFan]

5dimes.com for me. Now its up to -6

[EliteCapper]

Nothing on NYG/KC

[Mybologne]

mines at -7

[BGboothA]

alright I took -6.5 WAS

[EliteCapper]

yea just called my guy back and he's at 6.5 now

[EliteCapper]

Ind -3

[ticketgod]

im taken giants -4
tampa plus 6.5
and colts -3

[Mybologne]

im goin INDY 2H under 20 3u
change meant to say under

[DanOmaha]

i grabbed cincy -.5....EC, thoughts on that game?

[EliteCapper]

Tenn -3

[EliteCapper]

Cin/cle = nothin
chi/det = nothin

[EliteCapper]

i grabbed cincy -.5....EC, thoughts on that game?

Cleveland sucks in general but I don't understand why only 1/2..
GL

[Alpinestars7]

Under is good play .....when any team leads by more then 15 you always play the under at half......i think it hits like 60% or more.....

[EliteCapper]

Hou/oak = nothin

[brooks85]

bengals are a 2H team this year, they will smash them

[EliteCapper]

Under is good play .....when any team leads by more then 15 you always play the under at half......i think it hits like 60% or more.....

I've heard of this, how does this do?

[Alpinestars7]

It does good.....i havent tracked it all this whole season but i have played it....and it is positive units.....i need to go back and look them all up to see how many units it is up so far......

[EliteCapper]

Thats it for 1:00
Washington -6
Indianapolis -3
Tennessee -3

[HawaiiFan]

Thanks Elite, let roll!

[Alpinestars7]

The reason being is teams just run the ball and run off clock when they have such a huge lead they dont need to score......

[darkenergy]

I've heard of this, how does this do?

When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.

This trend is even stronger when the road team is ahead. What happens is this -- the winning team gets much more conservative on offense and rushes more than passes. This eats up clock time. The winning team can also bring in 5-6 defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. However, the opponent, which is losing badly and getting embarrassed sometimes will revert to fundamentals ( i.e. "let's get one score first, then worry about playing catch up"). This happens often in games where the starting QB has gone down with an injury in the first half. Furthermore, if the winning team has the ball with under 5 minutes to play, they will often drive down the field and kneel at the opponent's goal line, instead of crashing in for another score. This means that anywhere from 1-5 minutes out of 30 minutes is wiped out so far as scoring chances. Finally -- in blowout games, field goals become less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a 33-yard field goal the losing team will often go for it on 4th down and goal or 4th and long. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. That puts the other team deep in it's own territory to start the next drive. Tick Tick Tick.

Here are the results of this trend over the two years that it was tracked by Mr. Granowski:

1998 -- 21 UNDERS vs. 13 OVERS (61.8 percent)

1997 -- 24 UNDERS vs. 10 OVERS (70.6 percent)


I got this from an early post few years back.

[DanOmaha]

Thanks EC...I grabbed the Indy/Tenn lines...too late on the trigger for Wash.

I also grabbed NE (even) and Cincy (-.5) - Hope I don't blow the winnings away...

GL to all!!!

[EliteCapper]

I did play some unders in the IND and TENN games we'll see how they pan out.
GL fellas

[EliteCapper]

Washington -6 = WINNER!!
Indianapolis -3 = loss
Tennessee -3 = WINNER!!

2-1 (+.9) Damn Colts fumble from what I hear...

[EliteCapper]

I'll be starting a new thread for the 4:00 games

C You there....

[EliteCapper]

WEEK 1: 5-2 (+4.8 Units)
WEEK 2: 4-1 (+2.9 Units)
WEEK 3: 4-3 (-.4 Units)
WEEK 4: 2-1 (+.9 Units & Pending)
TOTAL: 15-7 (+8.2 Units)
4:00 games in a NEW THREAD!
Washington -6 = WINNER!!
Indianapolis -3 = loss
Tennessee -3 = WINNER!!

[spongerat]

good job. whats your method? is it mostly situational plays? or is there more technical mathematical capping?