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  1. 09-29-09 11:45 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    Default NFL Favorites of 6.5 or more are 31-6 ATS going into a bye

    Just something to keep in mind this time of the year.

    Makes sense too, since teams don't want to lose their last game before a bye and then think about that loss for two weeks, and bigger favorites are in a better position to avoid this.
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  2. 09-29-09 12:00 PM #2
    Irish Lumberjack
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    good info! I will keep an eye on this and might test it with my BTP money.
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  3. 09-29-09 12:02 PM #3
    G's pks
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    wow....interesting
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  4. 09-29-09 12:12 PM #4
    TobiasFunke
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    wow, pretty good stat thanks LT!
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  5. 09-29-09 12:13 PM #5
    ZBOIZ
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    And you guys can start it with my SAINTS this weekend!!!!!!

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  6. 09-29-09 12:18 PM #6
    G's pks
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    Z will this be a penis slap your bookie play???
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  7. 09-29-09 12:50 PM #7
    jjgold
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    That is some stat

    now it will lose
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  8. 09-29-09 12:53 PM #8
    Reload
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    Thanks for sharing, LT. Bye weeks can provide some good situational betting edges for sure - both going in and coming off.
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  9. 09-29-09 01:46 PM #9
    ZBOIZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by G's pks View Post
    Z will this be a penis slap your bookie play???

    nope
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  10. 09-29-09 01:56 PM #10
    bypp
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    great stat. thanks lt
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  11. 09-29-09 01:57 PM #11
    ZBOIZ
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    The Saints have a bye next week!!

    So pound the -6.5!!!!!!!
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  12. 09-29-09 03:25 PM #12
    kroyrunner89
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    Saints are only -6 now. Guess they don't qualify. What kind of time period is this trend over? 10 or 15 years? What about all the years before that? Track this trend all season and I betcha it hits about .500
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  13. 09-29-09 04:07 PM #13
    KingKing
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    very nice
    thanks for the stat and best of luck
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  14. 09-29-09 04:18 PM #14
    gizmo2431
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    That is indeed a nice stat.
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  15. 09-29-09 04:21 PM #15
    gizmo2431
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Just something to keep in mind this time of the year.

    Makes sense too, since teams don't want to lose their last game before a bye and then think about that loss for two weeks, and bigger favorites are in a better position to avoid this.
    Can you further break that stat down into HOME teams -6.5 VS ROAD teams -6.5 going into a BYE week ?
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  16. 09-29-09 05:43 PM #16
    goldseeker
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    Useful stats,thanks!
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  17. 09-29-09 06:00 PM #17
    accuscoresucks
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    That is some stat

    now it will lose

    more like a trend
    means nothing
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  18. 09-29-09 06:17 PM #18
    SexyMit
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    Well to bad it took a loss last night with Carolina! And yes I knew about this stat and still took Dallas last night!
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  19. 09-29-09 06:23 PM #19
    Sidetracked
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    it didnt take a loss with carolina....carolina was an underdog
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  20. 09-29-09 06:23 PM #20
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by SexyMit View Post
    Well to bad it took a loss last night with Carolina! And yes I knew about this stat and still took Dallas last night!
    No, Carolina was a dog.
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  21. 09-29-09 06:28 PM #21
    SexyMit
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    I saw a stat at another site that said dogs of 6.5 or more going into a bye week off a loss was like 32-3. Didn't even see it said fave sorry!
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  22. 09-29-09 06:29 PM #22
    Nicky Santoro
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    that's an incredible stat..
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  23. 09-29-09 06:32 PM #23
    gizmo2431
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    That stat would make NO fit in... as ZBOIZ pointed out
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  24. 09-29-09 08:51 PM #24
    louisvillekid
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    Quote Originally Posted by gizmo2431 View Post
    Can you further break that stat down into HOME teams -6.5 VS ROAD teams -6.5 going into a BYE week ?
    i'm curious as well for Home teams at -6.5 going into a bye and road favs of 6.5 going into a bye, plus how often it falls into that spread and timeframe, like how many years is that record spread over.
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  25. 09-29-09 08:57 PM #25
    daneblazer
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    Da Bears
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  26. 09-29-09 11:14 PM #26
    rm18
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    whatever we are taking jets +7.5 on a buy
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  27. 09-29-09 11:32 PM #27
    gizmo2431
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    Da Bears
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  28. 09-30-09 05:20 AM #28
    LT Profits
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    Since 2002:

    HOME Faves -6.5 or more entering Bye Week are 25-3 ATS!

    Road Faves -6.5 or more entering Bye Week are 6-3 ATS
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  29. 09-30-09 05:35 AM #29
    johncrud
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    When you are doing your backtracking on this, are you using covers.com as your source? They only got closing lines.

    Saints open at -6 and now -7. Are we supposed to look at the opening or closing line?
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  30. 09-30-09 05:42 AM #30
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by johncrud View Post
    When you are doing your backtracking on this, are you using covers.com as your source? They only got closing lines.

    Saints open at -6 and now -7. Are we supposed to look at the opening or closing line?
    WinPicks software, which I believe uses Pinny closers just like Covers does.
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  31. 10-04-09 07:02 PM #31
    LT Profits
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    33-6

    27-3 if at home
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  32. 10-04-09 07:21 PM #32
    fearless
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    33-6

    27-3 if at home
    Did you bet on those two LT?
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  33. 10-04-09 07:23 PM #33
    fearless
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    33-6

    27-3 if at home
    Could we make the Twins/Tigers playoff game the first game of the MLB postseason contest? It's officially part of the regular season but it would be awfully fun to include it in the contest, what do you think?
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  34. 10-04-09 10:17 PM #34
    TPowell
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    would any team entering a bye week be a good play? I mean the motivation should be similar right?
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  35. 10-04-09 11:41 PM #35
    LT Profits
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    Situation would be similar, but the bigger favorites are the better teams, so they are better equipped to get it done.

    I did not have either winner today, but I "won" in the sense that I layed off the Jets, who probably would have been a play.

    Yes, the Twins game will be part of contest.
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