[dwaechte]

Last week turned out to be a very good one as I went 3-1-1 with a gain of over 2.5 units. It could've been a perfect week save for a 4th quarter safety by Montreal that pushed their lead from 15 to 13 and across the line of 14.

I'm once again feeling really good about the week ahead. As I've mentioned, this portion of the season is my favourite and with 4 full games in, there's practically nothing to be gained by analyzing preseason predictions or last years results. Every team has had plenty of opportunity to show exactly what they're capable of. The only problem from here on out is deciphering which teams have the ability to improve or decline.

Season to Date: 8-4-1, +3.9925 units.

Montreal at Edmonton

There's simply not much to say aout this Montreal squad other than the obvious that they're really, really good. Expect the undefeated season talk to start heating up a little bit more in the TSN panel talks and in casual conversations. Although the odds are truly against them performing the feat, they're still going to be the overwhelming favourite in every game they play. Last weeks performance against the TiCats showed their consistency yet again. After a sluggish start which made you wonder about how they'd "get up" for what looked like such an easy win, they started to clamp down and play the way we've come to expect. Calvillo started lighting it up after the first quarter and the defense looked solid. One concern is that as the lead stretched out, the defense began to lay back, allowing "backup" Kevin Glenn to complete easy pass after easy pass and manage 191 yards in his second half. On the bright side, they did contain the Hamilton run game very well. In fact, it was Montreals best run defense all year, and against a team that runs the ball fairly well(Despite not doing it to the extent they have in the past).

Edmonton played in an extremely interesting game on Saturday. After falling behind by a ridiculous 22-0 margin, they stormed back to win 38-33 and even up their record for the year. They had been an unimpressive squad all 3 weeks prior, but their 2nd half in Saskatchewan showed some strength. Ray has actually been remarkably consistent all year, as their passing attack has netted between 7.4 and 7.6 yards/play every single week. The difference has come in the run game, where Arkee Whitlock has done a better job of taking care of the ball and not goofing up, while Cavin McCarty has been used more each week to stabilize the run game and the short passing attack.(As well as providing an excellent blocker). Two straight solid performances by the line and the 2 backs mean this team is much better off going ahead. Ray and the line also did a better job in keeping the sack total to 1, something they havent been able to do much. Ray is a fantastic CFL QB, as he has great vision and a great arm, but he does sometime let plays take too long to develop, and also has trouble escaping a rush if someone on the line misses a block early.

Edmonton is in tough this week, even at home. Montreal has jst shown no signs of weakness, and Calvillo versus the Eskimo secondary is going to be a COMPLETE mismatch, as it was when Edmonton visited the Als earlier in the year. The week 2 match between these two teams was probably the biggest stomping in the CFL this season, but you wonder if seeing the Montreal attack alreay might actually be pretty good help for this defense. In the end though, the talent you put on the field determines the outcome in most cases, and the Montreal offense has more talent. A big determinant of the spread outcome will be how Ray and the receivers play; Edmonton has turned the ball over far too much so far, and its buried them on numerous occasions. Ray needs to take care of the ball and still be able to strike deep. That's actually one thing Edmonton has going for them in this, the fact that Montreal has been bitten by the deep ball and Ray throws it so well.

Whitlock and the Eskimos will try their best to avenge their performance in week 2, but going against the Als when theyre playing like they are is a dangerous proposition.

1.5* Montreal -6.5 -105
1* Over 54.5 +100


BC at Hamilton

Another rematch from week 2 pits the Lions vs the Cats. A few weeks ago Hamilton marched into Vancouver and shocked the Lions, dropping them to 0-2 in the process. It was the beginning of things to come, as although both teams have gone 1-1 since, Hamilton has looked better doing so.

British Columbia last week was pretty bad, losing 48-10 to the Stamps. But the margin probably shouldn't have been that bad. Although the Lions offense was abysmal, their defense didn't play bad enough that they shouldve given up 48 points. Put the blame for that in the hands of the offense which gave up 4 turnovers, as well as Sandro DeAngelis for having a great game kicking the ball. The Lions defense held Burris in check very well, allowing just 163 yards on 29 attempts to the MOP QB. The Stamps rushing game did perform very well on the back of Reynolds among others, but run defense is always a bit less of a concern than pass defense, so let's not kill BC too much for that. (Although it is made more troubling by the fact that Calgarys run game had been very ineffective before last week.)

As said, on offense they were abysmal, as Pierce had very little going, and Jackson was even worse replacing him. Pierce is undoubtedly the better QB and lets hope that in the future Buono sticks with him. The running numbers were very, very good on the whole in the game, but dont be fooled... they had few attempts and they were certainly aided by a useless 37 yard run on the last play of the game.

For Hamilton, although they lost last week and never really had a chance to win past the 2nd quarter, they still impressed me. Rodriguez is a beast and the passing game, be it with either Porter or Glenn, has looked pretty damn good the last 3 games. They're still completing a good percentage(66% on the year) and are connecting on a good number of mid-range passes that weren't a part of their arsenal last year. They also managed to take care of the football and put up a solid showing on special teams. Any time you face Montreal in Montreal its going to be very hard to win, and you cant fault them for their effort.

Overall, BC has been a pretty lousy team. I still think they're potentially overrated, however any game where you lose by 38 points should do plenty to mitigate or even reverse that trend. Hamilton on the otherhand may be a little underrated right now, as people might look at a 21-8 loss and think it's a bad thing. Their weak schedule is troubling, but atleast theyve knocked out the teams they should have. This is a tough game to gauge, but I like this Hamilton team better and being at home with a crowd that has reason for their first optimism in years is a big boost.

2* Hamilton +2.5 -105
1* Over 50.5 -105

[dwaechte]

Winnipeg at Toronto

If this game were just removed from the schedule, would anyone really care? The display these two teams put on last week was horrific. One of the worst games I can remember. Neither offense could do anything to move the ball down the field. Winnipeg managed a paltry 2.9 yards/play, and its safe to say the Stefan Lefors experiment may be over. The team is expected to practice Mike Bishop today, but does it really matter? The guy has always been overrated and cant connect on a high enough percentage on a good team let alone with this mess of an offense. No matter who they throw out at QB, they simply dont have the talent to surround him with. Theres no way they cant manage more than 2.9 yards a play in this rematch, but expecting anything resembling a good performance is expecting too much. On defense, atleast they held the Argos down pretty well, as Joseph continued his trend of a low completion percentage and turnovers to boot.

As much as I slag on Toronto, theyve been a really good team overall so far. The ability is there; they just need to eliminate all of the mistakes. You have to wonder whether it comes back to coaching, and whether or not theyll be able to erase them or not. I believe they will, but its a gamble. Either way, after beating down the Bombers in Winnipeg, I expect the Argos to be able to do the same. Any time you play a team in back to back weeks the importance of coaching comes up, and although I have little faith in Andrus, I have less in Berry. The line of Winnipeg -4 or -4.5 was way, way off last week, and it still hasn’t adjusted enough this week after taking HFA into consideration.

2* Toronto -5.5 -105

Saskatchewan vs Calgary

The final game of the week sends the Riders to McMahon to face the Stamps, winners of two in a row. After a slow start, Calgary has rebounded nicely. However, as mentioned earlier, the 48-10 win wasnt really a 48-10 win, and Im still not in love with this team. Their offense hasnt been nearly as explosive as it was last season, and its instead been the defense carrying the load the last two weeks. In fact, the defense has been pretty good almost every week, with their week 1 performance vs Montreal now looking better in hindsight, but their week 2 performance against looking a little worse. Either way, the defense has been solid, and the last two weeks theyve made big plays and gotten turnovers. Saskatchewan however has limited their turnovers, and if they can do the same this week dont expect another Calgary blowout.

Durant is evolving nicely as a QB, as hes limiting mistakes while still being able to move the chains. Hell never be an MOP type player, but theres nothing wrong with having him at the helm when youve got him surrounded with decent players as the Riders do. Saskatchewans offense has been weak, but acceptable. The defense hasnt been what it was last year(and now they dont even have the injuries), but once again, its been acceptable. Overall, its been a slow start, but theyve faced a pretty decent schedule. Its really a team Im having a tough time evaluating, and one of the few which I feel like I dont have enough to go on. However, any time a team fails to really impress through 4 games, thats probably not a good sign.

Calgary is heavily favoured in this one, and rightfully so. But, I just dont trust them with this type of spread yet. To cover this many, a strong explosive offense goes a long way, and as I said, they just haven't had that so far. I'm putting my trust in the fact that Saskatchewan will take care of the ball, eat the clock, and hold the Stamps from any big plays.

Will hold off on the +9.5 for now, but will most likely be added later in the week. The main play for now is the under.

2* Under 61 -105


Power Rankings

1. Montreal
2. Calgary
3. Toronto
4. Hamilton
5. Edmonton
6. Saskatchewan
7. BC
8. Winnipeg

The two through four spots are really just a guessing game for me, as I think they’re all close, and there are just a couple reasons why I don’t feel right putting a certain team above another. I’m very confident on the 5th-8th rankings. The East has risen.

[waco66]

good luck! i like Toronto and Montreal aswell

[stats13]

with ya on over 54.5 weds night

[Winnipeg Jets]

kelly coaches the bombers. either way it doesn't matter

[dwaechte]

Originally Posted by Winnipeg Jets

kelly coaches the bombers. either way it doesn't matter

Ahh my bad. Honestly, I knew that and was picturing/had Kelly in mind when I wrote that, but I always seem to mix their names up. Probably wont be the last time I make that mistake.

[CRAPTORS101]

i didnt watch the edm game, but i am guessing the offense is clicking now..
the over should be the play in this weeks edm/mon game..

is everyone on toronto ? looks easy..

[Metalhead]

I'm going to just do a 6 point teaser for this week. With the single points in CFL games the spreads sometimes comeback to bite me when they shouldn't.

Montreal -7 to -1

Toronto -5 to +1

[rick_213]

i would lean with the over in the montreal/edmonton game. Montreal has not put up many points the last two games. I am assuming they went under last two games, and for montreal, they didn't go under 3 games in a row all of last season.

As for Edmonton, there offense is also very potent. I like to see both teams going for a few early bombs and hopefully a turnover or two will get us close to the total by halftime..wouldn't that be nice! lets just hope it doesn't rain...

My first half prediction score is 24-20 montreal. Final score prediction: Montreal Wins 37-34 in a close game.

[The General]

Good stuff, guys.

Best of luck.

[mathdotcom]

Will not rain, I am outside commonwealth stadium now and clear skies

ALso know a groundskeeper there and he says grass is in perfect condition. He is also on the over.

[rick_213]

mathdotcom..thanks for the update. i am in calgary right now and it went from blazing hot clear skies to overcast and cloudy..it looks like a huge storm is a brewing..lets hope it doesn't reach edmonton till after the game is over, or until they have scored enough points for us to get a winner...i like how you got that inside source on the grounds condition...can you post one more message on the weather just before kick-off???? thanks!!

[mathdotcom]

rick, the winds move from west to east. not south to north. There was a storm passing over and it rained a bit this afternoon, but now the sun is shining. It will be perfect conditions. Hammer the over. Tempted to take the points with Edmonton, but if they lose it is too likely they'll just get blown out.

[mathdotcom]

I cannot afford iPhone so cannot post before game time while I am there.

will have camera in case of random Gizmo Williams siting

[Marigold HD]

yes.... thanks for the update

[mathdotcom]

Might take Edmonton ML

[BlackJack]

I got Edmonton ML +255 earlier and am kicking myself for not locking in +7 -105 when I had the chance yesterday and day before.

[mathdotcom]

Boys

I would now reconsider taking over. It is getting very windy and I'd say still a 25% chance of rain. Without a throwing game, Edmonton will score 0 points.

[gummo]

Montreal -6

[stats13]

wow took that one square in the ass, cant bet cfl worth a lick (talking about myself)

[beaneaters]

Dwaetche

I've enjoyed your CFL writeups in the past. Keep up the good work. I tend to struggle with the Canadian game myself.
I have Saskatochewan +10 this weekend, as it seems most people do. But I'm on the under with B.C. and Hamilton. The Ticats held the Montreal offence in check last week, and B.C.'s offence has been putrid. And I don't know if the Hamilton offence is good enough to make up the difference. Just my two cents.
Take it easy,
Bean

[Wilforth]

I see BC getting the win in a low-scoring game. BC and Under.

[jjgold]

I just took under

I have no clue how these teams are.

Good info men.

[HighVoltage]

Hamilton!

[waco66]

unbelievable. BC gets all the way to the Ticats 1 yard line and gets STUFFED!. FUMBLE! Oh my god. Then the ticats come all the way back and get a touchdown and two field goals.

This was going to be BC's game from the second quarter on. Well...thank god i hit the under or last night would've sucked lol

[HighVoltage]

Yeah, too bad BC didn't get that TD because then we would have won both HAM & the over!!! No answer for Cobb.