Take Titans +7 vs. Ravens
Game Time: 11/12/2006 1:00:00 PM
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.10starpicks.com
Steve McNair's return to Tennessee as the Baltimore QB is getting a lot of attention. But pregame ink never guarantees a win, much less a cover. And the right play Sunday at LP Field in Nashville is the home Titans plus the seven points against the Ravens.
Obviously the big story here is the return of Steve McNair to Tennessee. While he is certain to be fired up facing his old team, he isn’t going to be able to carry the Ravens on his shoulders to pick up the win and, more importantly, get the big road cover.
Baltimore is looking very good in the AFC North with a two-game lead over Cincinnati. But it has been winning recently in pretty unconventionalfashion. The Ravens were outgained by 110 yards in a win over New Orleans and almost blew a big lead last week against the Bengals.
Tennessee had a two-game winning streak snapped last week at Jacksonville, but a return home should help the Titans. They are 1-2 in Nashville with the only real bad loss coming against Dallas. The numbers are against Tennessee, but that is the case with the Titans every week and what needs to be looked at are other factors. Tennessee has lost by at least 31 points twice this season but the following game after those defeats resulted in 1- and 3-point losses, so it has recovered very well.
One big thing Tennessee has in its favor is that it is a seasoned team already having faced the 4th-ranked schedule in the league. Vince Young, the rookie quarterback of the future, is coming off a dreadful game last week against the Jaguars, but that is to be expected given his inexperience. Prior to that Young had two straight solid efforts with quarterback ratings of 87.4 and 85.6. So while the season has been a long one already, there are some positives. Facing the Ravens defense will be a challenge, but Young should be up for it.
After starting the season with two blowout wins over Tampa Bay and Oakland, the Ravens have slipped. They outgained those two teams by a combined 231 yards, but since then Baltimore is -124 in total yards margin, So while going 4-2, it hasn’t been a dominating 4-2. Let’s not forget that Tennessee went 4-12 last season with one of those wins being a 15-point victory over Baltimore at home. The Ravens are better but not that much to be laying a touchdown on the road.
The Ravens have been very successful in creating turnovers but that can’t be counted on every week and it actually sets up Tennessee very well. Play against favorites of 3½-10 points with a defense that is forcing 2.75 or more turnovers per game, after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The average line in those 32 games was 6.3 while the average point differential was just -0.3 ppg.
Play: Titans +7
Matt Fargo: Take Titans +7 vs. Ravens
