[bigboydan]

42-41 now... This one is gonna be close bro.

[imgv94]

I can't take this anymore.. Every week the same story..

[primo_skillz]

I feel for you IMG. Maybe it is time for you to take that break as you were talking about before. That will only make you come back stronger than ever!

[primo_skillz]

or you could do that as well, i love seeing these plays from you and share the same confidence as you in the strength of them as well - hopefully dallas will hit for you tonight!!!BOL

[nosuzieno]

got hit on cincy too, what a collapse

[Checkerboard]

you're all right img, just circle the wagons, lower the units
and keep the pilot going.

GL with 'Boys pick!

[primo_skillz]

these games have been crazy, thought that was great 'capping in this game as you knew cincy was going to have an explosion..this was both johnson and palmers game to come out, however they were not able to outmaneuver the high-scoring sd offense. i was on the right side of this game, but felt that this one was over at halftime

[imgv94]

I am ******* sick.. Palmer fumbles on SD's 12yd line LOL!!!! Bengals player drops the TD LOL!!!! Great...

Also I had the Bengals +7.5 and they end up losing by 8

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA.. Wonderful...

FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuckFuck FuckFuckFuckFuckFuck

[BuddyBear]

hang in there bro......it will turn around soon, real soon.

[imgv94]

Thanks man...

[Tricky]

Did I read that wagering is your only source of income??

[imgv94]

Did I read that wagering is your only source of income??

Yes it is.. I believe that might be the problem..

[austintx05]

Yes it is.. I believe that might be the problem..

Nothin wrong with that at all. I am in the transition of doing the same thing. Click on my name and you can go to my homepage. I have a Manifesto that I map out set goals, which makes it much easier to make an income wagering. What books do you use?

[imgv94]

I use Pinny,CRIS,GREEK,Matchbook,Cascade,5 DIMES,BET JM.. How about you?



**** the Bengals..

TODAY: 2-2 -2.20 Units
YTD: 58-52 +1.83 Units

[austintx05]

Pinnacle, Matchbook, Mansion

The reason I asked is because I have found that a lot of bettors use "dog books" like Bowmans, Olympic, but you pay 10-20% on the vig. CRIS has early lines, but so does PInny at a reduced price. Looks like you use some reduced juice books which is good. My view on gambling is to be selective. I have made 24 picks in NCAAF and my record is 20-4. I have learned to really pick my spots. I notice that a lot of gamblers make 100-200 picks per season, but the way I see it is if I make 200 picks over a season I have to win around 110 to break a decent profit.

[austintx05]

My Betting Manifesto

My Goal: Double my bankroll in a season.

1. Establish a bankroll.
2. Flat Bet
3. Reduced juice books/exchanges are a must

Here is how it works. Once a bankroll is established you must be consistent. No doubling up, no chasing 2nd half plays. None of that. This is a business and you are investing, just like the stock market, just like any business does. I don't bet on games because they are on TV, I bet on them because I believe I have greater than a 50% chance of winning. Anytime you have grasp of an edge greater than 50%, then your in business.

Flat betting is key. We all know how it works, the game you put the least on wins and the game you put the most on loses. Your record stands at 1-1, but you are down money. The idea of parlays, teasers to me are sucker bets, just in a different form. There is always one game you teased the wrong way and the last leg of your parlay loses. It has happened to the majority of bettors. Simply put, the average bettor is looking to make X-Dollars today, while I am looking at making X-Dollars over the course of a season. Would you rather make $1k tonight or $10k within a 90 day period? The choice is pretty obvious to me. Here is where Reduced Juice comes into play.

Reduced juice books/exchanges allow even the average bettor to maximize their profits even their losses. Lets compare.

2% -- 10%
Starting bankroll $100k
Record (58%) 58-42 -- 58-42
Win $ at 10k per $580,000 -- $580,000
Loss $ at 10k per $428,000 -- $462,000
Profit $151, 000 -- $118,000


That is the difference right there. If you can go 58% there is a monumental difference in profits when you have reduced juice, so much so that you would have to go 60% at 10% juice just to match it. I realize that this is a very aggressive way to approach this and that if you go 0-10 you are done, but this is the most sound way to go about reaching an aggressive investment goal.

The average bettor who loses their shirt every week will tell you that the "house" has the edge and that you cannot make money sports betting, but I have shown above that with a $100k bankroll, hitting at only a 58% clip you make $151,000 profit. Not bad for doing what you love.

The example above is more for a comparison on juice and to show how much getting the lowest possible vig is crucial. Lets break the system down in its most simple form.

$100k bankroll
1 unit = 10%
10% = $10k
The Goal = +10 units
+10 units = 100% profit

This is why you flat bet. Wager the same amount on every play and once you have reached the goal you have doubled your bankroll. You now have the option to set a new goal or just cash out for the season. This is entirely up to the individual bettor based on his confidence level.

...I posted this if you would like a different point of view, if not disregard.

[Tricky]

Chaz, I like how you've stuck closely with a system. My problem has always been I get cocky when on a winning streak and blow a large chunk of my balance on 1 or 2 bets. I do prefer betting different units though. If I find my "2 unit" bets lose more often than my regular bets I would reconsider but I've been pretty consistent.

One thing you said stands out though; ..."hitting at only a 58% clip...". only? You do realize that's awfully good, right?

[austintx05]

Yeah I realize thats awefully good, and some struggle to hit at a 54% range, but I do not play 200+ game per season. Like I stated before, we are 11 weeks into the NCAAF season and I have made 25 bets, losing 5 of them equating to a +15 unit season. I understand why some vary the unit amount, this just works best for me. I feel confident in all of my plays and I cannot tell you which one is a "better bet" than the others, this is why I flat bet. I bet aggressively in my %:unit ratio. Just wanted to offer a different opinion.

[Mudcat]

Just to be clear, I don't believe in rubbing in losses on posted picks. Completely classless move. I would never do it except that imgv apparently believes in it so I assume that's what he would like done unto him.

I can't take this anymore.. Every week the same story..

You need to man up. Be glad you're just posting pretend picks in posting forums and not placing real bets.

TODAY: 2-2 -2.20 Units

Your unit management and choice of bets is rookie stuff.

teasers




(Again, I only do this because it's something imgv believes in.)

[primo_skillz]

Austin the quality of that post is spectacular. I have become to understand your system in a matter of minutes. We need more posts of this nature in this forum, rather than ones flaming others.

EDIT: Since, Mudcat was able to post before me, I have something to respond. Mudcat why dont you take your own advice and be a man? If you do not believe it a classy move, then why do it at all? We all hit rough spots during the season...no need for you to chastise him.

[imgv94]

Just to be clear, I don't believe in rubbing in losses on posted picks. Completely classless move. I would never do it except that imgv apparently believes in it so I assume that's what he would like done unto him.

You sir are a drug addict... If Cincy holds on to their 28-7 lead I go 4-0 +10.12 Units.. Everytime you post it makes you look even more stupid...

You need to man up. Be glad you're just posting pretend picks in posting forums and not placing real bets.

Bullshit, I have never posted a play that I didn't wager on myself.. C'mon how stupid are you?

Your unit management and choice of bets is rookie stuff.

You are one to talk? Someone who never posts plays or opinions should never go into anyones thread and talk shit.. That is a bitch move and you know it..

Mudcat you know nothing and why anyone would ever take what you say serious is beyond me..

[austintx05]

Austin the quality of that post is spectacular. I have become to understand your system in a matter of minutes. We need more posts of this nature in this forum, rather than ones flaming others.

EDIT: Since, Mudcat was able to post before me, I have something to respond. Mudcat why dont you take your own advice and be a man? If you do not believe it a classy move, then why do it at all? We all hit rough spots during the season...no need for you to chastise him.

Thanks. I realize that betting 10% of your bankroll is a big NO-NO for soem. I think 2-3% is more of a comfortable amount, but I bet aggressively. And my "bankroll" is an amount that I am willing ot lose in a season. Its not lunch money, its not an amount I need to win so I can pay this months rent. Its an amount I am willing to risk to turn a 100% profit. Picking a book(s) is crucial too. No reason to pay -110 when you can get it for -102 or better.

[primo_skillz]

Most of the money management places tell you to never wage more than 5% on a game. I think their is a difference when you're 'capping the game or when you are on a considerable run. Most of the sites out there, always caution people because it seems as though bettors get out of control when they are trying to get back to even at least(double down.) This is when we know it goes down hill from there.

However, if you limit your plays by a considerable amount for that year and are betting with money that is set aside for gambling purposes (other than rent/income) then I feel like you're on top of the game. This is what I decided to do a couple of years ago. I put aside a good amount of money away for gambling. I will not dip into my paycheck if I lose the rest of this money. The NHL has been treating me well, so I don't feel like there is a need to worry. I just keep telling myself, "Next week there is always going to be more games. No need to lay money on the line here so that I can be up for the week or I got nothing better to do. Wait for a better spot and then cash the ticket!"

[austintx05]

Very well said.