[Dark Horse]

A little twist on the FLAT spotting. This one goes back to last week. I posted a loser (sorry), with Grossman having the worst performance of his life, but the same system identified two winners in TB (14-13 over Cincy) and NO (27-24 over PHI). According to this angle both winners played flat teams!

The public remembers the last game, so now we have TB overrated and PHI underrated. Good fortune has it that these two teams meet in week 7. Fade the overrated team and take the underrated team: PHI -5.


A team that qualifies as the play against team is KC. PIT exposed them, and SD should take care of business as well: SD -4 (-115).


----------------------
Football season record: 72-48 ATS
NFL: 36-26
NCAAF: 36-22
Game of week picks: 2-1

[imgv94]

Wow 2 road favs over 3.5 spreads..

I disagree with Phi being underrated and TB being overrated.. What makes PHI so good? Their defense is shit..

[Dark Horse]

According to this angle, PHI was caught in a flat spot last week. And they still almost beat NO...

This week PHI has an overlay of 7 pts, which suggests they'll win the game by about 12 pts.

Not too concerned about their defense, because not too concerned about TB offense. I trust PHI offense to take it to the bank in a pretty high scoring affair.


I have more riding on the SD game, though.

[imgv94]

Road Favs of above -3.5 are getting creamed this year.. Losing at a 67% rate I believe..

I like SD as much as anyone but I realize how hostile it is over there at Arrowhead.. I would love to see SD win big but I just don't see it.. Bad spot for SD IMO... Good Luck though bro..

[Razz]

If I were to play a road fave, it would be Philly. Against SD though. Good luck.

[Dark Horse]

Road Favs of above -3.5 are getting creamed this year.. Losing at a 67% rate I believe..

Interesting. I would be more inclined to fade (some) road faves with spreads 3 or lower. Between 3 and 7 they've done pretty well for me.

But if you know the reason behind the trend, and the sample size, I'm all ears.

[Dark Horse]

One thing. I'm slightly superstitious. If the SD game doesn't cover, I will not post another NFL game.

[Jay Edgar]

Interesting . . .

Although my lean is the other way in both games, DH's case for Philly makes sense. Philly was beaten by the Saints and their superstar-to-be (IMO) of a head coach because the Eagle D could not get off the field in the last 8 mins, largely due to one bad/suspicious break -- a 3rd down def holding call having nothing to do with the play that saved NO from punting with 3-4 minutes left. That hanky doesn't drop and things are probably very different. (No sour grapes here, I had the Saints.)

Also the PHI play fits the formula of "play the team with something to prove against the team that just proved something." But that's a lot of wood to chop on the road -- and it's head north toward 6 now, it looks like.

KC on the other hand is the team with something to prove. Didn't see enough of the KC-PIT game to know if KC was truly "exposed," or was more the victim of an early knockout before they knew what hit them. Either way it's hard for me to discount them at home.

Are we gonna get yardage rankings this week, DH?

[Dark Horse]

I'm not really getting anything extra from the yardage rankings so far. Most of the time they're in the same ballpark as the overlays.
At this point I can't say it's a strong angle. Let me build a little larger database first.

[Dark Horse]

Anyway, may as well give 'm to you. Yardage Efficiency (YE):

 1) CHI +13.2
2) JAX +12.3
3) BAL +10.8
4) PHI +10.7
5) SD +10.4
6) DEN +10.1
7) NE +9.7
8) STL +5.3
9) CIN +3.9
10) DAL +3.3
10) TB +3.3
12) NO +2.2
13) CAR +1.4
14) IND +1.2
14) ARI +1.2
16) KC +0.8
17) MIA -0.7
17) WAS -0.7
19) PIT -1.2
20) NYG -4.2
21) ATL -4.3
22) HOU -4.5
23) MIN -4.6
24) CLE -4.7
25) GB -5.8
26) SEA -6.6
27) BUF -7.0
28) TEN -8.5
29) DET -8.6
30) NYJ -9.8
31) SF -12.8
32) OAK -15.6


Numbers reflect positive or negative yardage efficiency against league average. Formula based on ratings in offense (x1) plus rating in defense (x1.5) plus ratings in red zone (x2).

[Dark Horse]

IMG, about those road faves. Using overlays, I have them at 4-5 ATS for overlays over 7, and at 4-7 for overlays over 3. About 64% to the fade, but very small sample size.

The worst performers have been the road dogs for overlays under 7: 1-12 ATS!


GL

[Augustus]

Message deleted.

[Augustus]

Kansas City is a solid 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS (87.5 percent) in their last 8 home games.

[Augustus]

Message deleted.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks. Good info!

I halved my wager on SD, sort of, by teasing KC +11 and IND -2.5.

[Jay Edgar]

Anyway, may as well give 'm to you. Yardage Efficiency (YE):

I'm shocked MIA is as high as the middle of the pack. Must be their D propping them up -- plus a very small offensive sample size in the red zone!

[Dark Horse]

Well, don't read too much into it. It does show a bit of a difference between 1 and 5 Arizona and winless OAK.

[imgv94]

DarK Horse go fuk yourself asshole... Good Luck!!!

[josebla89]

I agree with IMG on the san diego game KC is very good at home. I know they havent played well lately but you will see a solid effort on their part this sunday against sd. Some teams are a whole differnt animal at home. kc, browns, and the bills are pretty damn good at home. At least when it comes to covering at home when underdogs

[McBa1n]

BALLSY picks, man.
Gut says you are right on both - but KC and points at Arrowhead? Yeesh. That's one place I won't ever play a road favorite EVER... I think I'm 0 for 5 trying that over the years heh.

A banged up Philly O at Tampa? I dunno what to make of Tampa. They've been killers their past 2 games. You're probably good, Philly was soft last week and they're a damn fine football team. I don't like the spread, though. It's too many points. I think it's a slam-dunk teaser play, though.

[nosuzieno]

I'm shocked MIA is as high as the middle of the pack. Must be their D propping them up -- plus a very small offensive sample size in the red zone!

look at who they've played...