[imgv94]

RAVENS +6 WTF?

Why did the books move this line up so much? Are they gambling here? They obviously are begging for people to bet the Ravens. Now let's try to get into the bookies mind and figure out this recent line movement...

Thanks in advance..

[Checkerboard]

Is it just me or is it true that MNF lays itself open more to middles. I'm taking the middle (I have DEN - 3 1/2 from
earlier and now I'll take BALt +5 1/2 or 6 if I can get it nearer
game time) and then hoping DEN wins by 4 (or 5) to win both
bets while my I'm covered (-juice) on any result outside the bracket. Here's the kicker, I have a feeling DEN's going to win
by 4 tonight . . .

imgv94 . . . re: line movement, I think all the DEN $ coming in forcing the book to tease BALT is because BALT
is publicly perceived as not having been road-tested. Their 4-0 record . . . Game 1: road blowout @ TB, game 2: Home blowout hosting OAK, game 3 @ CLEV tight road win vs perceived easier team and game 4 home tight over SD 16-13.

I think Denver's perceived as a strong home team that's found
it's footing after a slow start (they started on the wrong foot
last year in week 1 too) with a 17-7 road win over NE. Plus
the mystique of Mile High, the home team in general on MNF
(this week 4-2 with the added WSH/MIN game) plus the
perception that well-coached teams do very well after byes.

imgv94 . . . how do you feel about the total? (Good call
on BUF TT Sunday - way to go).

[imgv94]

I like the Under in here.. Den or Balt are nothing special on offense and superb on defense.. I see the score 13-10..

[Checkerboard]

13-10 is the score I entered in my pool tie-breaker (14-10
is my middle wishful thinking) . . .

[imgv94]

I am worried about this game..

It looks like the books are giving free money away with this teaser

Balt +12.5
Under 40.5

I am afraid some bogus shit might happen... I hope you win you're middle bro... I really do!!!

[ivyconniver]

I'm very anti-teaser/parlay, but that balt and under one does look very enticing.

[r2d2]

I am worried about this game..

It looks like the books are giving free money away with this teaser

Balt +12.5
Under 40.5

I am afraid some bogus shit might happen... I hope you win you're middle bro... I really do!!!

that does look like a solid teaser imgv94. Funny thing is i just hung up the phone with my buddy who lives in denver, he said it is raining and cold. they expect snow by halftime, and freezing ice after the sun sets. plus, denver is terrible agaisnt the ravens the last 4 years. Anyone remember the mnf debacle agaisnt den vs ravens a few years back? they always play us tuff. i think that teaser looks sweet. i can see this being a 17-14 for sure.

[Dark Horse]

Most of the money seems to be on BAL (64% at sportsbook.com), so the probable reason to move the line in favor of BAL is that sharp money is on DEN.

Line is 5.5 everywhere, from 4.5, which means little or nothing.

[Seattle Slew]

Denver coming off a bye week, and the Ravens coming in after 2 straight hard-fought games that they could have lost might be the reason the line is jumping.

I don't think anyone is convinced Baltimore is a top-tier team yet. A win or even a close loss tonight would help.

[Jay Edgar]

Line is 5.5 everywhere, from 4.5, which means little or nothing.

On the other hand, 5.5. to 6 is significant, especially in a low scoring FG-fest.

Like most other folks I constantly wonder/worry about what the moves mean, and who thinks they know something I that don't. But they are all guessing, too. I think your only real option is to pick a side based on what you see in the two teams, with any perceptions about line movement serving as no more than a minor factor in the amount and the timing of your play.

[MPMEYER1982]

It's obvious that the books want you to bet Baltimore tonight. They have covered the last 6 times against Denver with 4 of those games going under. If Baltimore covers tonight than the books will lose a lot of money on this game. Denver, coming off of a bye week, will find a way to cover tonight IMO. Everything points towards Baltimore covering but I just don't see it happening.

[Jay Edgar]

For me, I'm gonna bet the Ravens because my numbers suggest they are the better team. They are also getting one-sixth of the projected total. And they are turnover-positive to a fare-thee-well.

I'm gonna to bet them moderately because they are a Monday night road team, they are traveling off what may end up being their most impressive win of the year, and Denver has had the bye week.

What the books "want" me to do is outside of my thinking, except as it helps me get that +6 at the lowest possible vig.

[imgv94]

Baltimore line is dropping get +5.5 ASAP as it will probably not be available for too much longer..

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks, bro.
I'm in at +6 via Skybook, which in these days of games-landing-on-the-number has proven to be a pretty handy book to have (after being damn near useless during baseball season)

[imgv94]

5.5 is only available at a handful of books right now gentleman get it while you can if you like em.. No Problem Jay Edgar you will pay me back when the NBA comes around cause we know your solid in that department..

GL with the Ravens bud..

-4.5 avail @ pinny and bodog

HURRY

[bigboydan]

I don't put much faith into that Bodog line at 4.5 though IMG. The dual line they do is the reason why. However, that line is moving down fast. So if your a Baltimore backer tonight make sure you take IMG's advice and move fast on this line before it does drop like a rock.

[Jay Edgar]

when the NBA comes around cause we know your solid in that department..

I didn't have a stretch like yours in March though, bro. That was scary good.

[primo_skillz]

Sounds like we got some good NBA bettors in the house. Can't wait til the season starts....

[MPMEYER1982]

I knew that line was to good to be true. The books were begging you to bet Baltimore and for those who knew that and took Denver got rewarded nicely. Sometimes you just have to think outside the box.

[Jay Edgar]

I knew that line was to good to be true. The books were begging you to bet Baltimore and for those who knew that and took Denver got rewarded nicely. Sometimes you just have to think outside the box.

Early in the fourth qtr the in-game price on Denver -5.5 was +400/-500 (allowing those feeling skittish about a Ravens +6 pick to hedge out very cheaply with a legitimate shot at a side)

Denver backers were rewarded because a 9-2 shot came in.
It happens.

My view remains: do your own handicapping and play your convictions within your means, and all will be fine.

[r2d2]

imgv, good to see both our teasers worked last night!

As a broncos fan, i ended up teasing this:

broncos +.5
under 39

I see you ravens +12.5 worked as well.

[Doc JS]

r2d2 and IMGV,

I thought both of the teasers were great plays. So, I played them both! Great night last night!

Although, I gotta tell you, i was really afraid that Denver was going to take that last pick to the house and cause me to lose the imgv teaser!

Doc JS