[Ganchrow]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Spread	N	Std. Err.	Freq.
0	699	0.00%	0.00%
1	2,213	0.33%	2.44%
2	2,703	0.27%	2.07%
3	2,954	0.54%	9.38%
4	3,019	0.32%	3.28%
5	3,207	0.22%	1.59%
6	2,160	0.39%	3.38%
7	1,918	0.51%	5.16%
8	1,845	0.33%	2.06%
9	1,447	0.27%	1.04%
10	917	0.71%	4.80%
11	793	0.54%	2.40%
12	610	0.33%	0.66%
13	397	0.66%	1.76%
14	311	1.18%	4.50%
15	258	0.77%	1.55%
16	146	1.35%	2.74%
17	84	2.58%	5.95%
18	57	1.74%	1.75%

---

Methodology:

• All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies

[Don Dollars]

That is interesting. Thank you!

[scottyy11]

do you have the nubers for college?

[darkghost]

Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).

I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.

[Ganchrow]

do you have the nubers for college?

See the College Football forum.

[rm18]

Interesting, I always felt 14 pushed more than most people thought, a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17

[Ganchrow]

a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17

Just remember tha the sample size for 17-spread games is only 46.

[ivyconniver]

Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.

[Ganchrow]

Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.

I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?

[ivyconniver]

I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?

Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.

[Ganchrow]

Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.

|MOV|	Games	%
0	8	0.142%
1	232	4.108%
2	204	3.613%
3	878	15.548%
4	303	5.366%
5	177	3.134%
6	315	5.578%
7	478	8.465%
8	152	2.692%
9	99	1.753%
10	336	5.950%
11	187	3.311%
12	90	1.594%
13	176	3.117%
14	280	4.958%
15	94	1.665%
16	114	2.019%
17	222	3.931%
18	116	2.054%
19	70	1.240%
20	140	2.479%
21	145	2.568%
22	53	0.939%
23	64	1.133%
24	116	2.054%
25	56	0.992%
26	35	0.620%
27	94	1.665%
28	86	1.523%
29	18	0.319%
30	29	0.514%
31	65	1.151%
32	30	0.531%
33	14	0.248%
34	38	0.673%
35	32	0.567%
36	9	0.159%
37	14	0.248%
38	26	0.460%
39	6	0.106%
40	2	0.035%
41	12	0.213%
42	11	0.195%
43	3	0.053%
44	3	0.053%
45	4	0.071%
46	3	0.053%
48	3	0.053%
49	2	0.035%
51	1	0.018%
54	1	0.018%
55	1	0.018%
Total	5647	100.000%

1985 - 2007 seasons, not including playoff games.

[Justin7]

Ganchrow-

The push frequencies change depending on the spread and total. I.E. a "3" will land about 10% of the time if the home team is a 3-point favorite; but if it is a 14 point favorite, it drops to under 7%.

do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?

[Ganchrow]

do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?

As you and I just discussed, the above table corresponds to games within 2 points of the given spread.

[patswin]

Thanks for posting, I was looking for updated info recently.

[Ganchrow]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Total	N	Std. Err.	Freq.
29	22	0.00%	0.00%
30	64	3.03%	6.25%
31	145	0.97%	1.38%
32	334	0.52%	0.90%
33	565	0.80%	3.72%
34	860	0.57%	2.91%
35	1,327	0.37%	1.88%
36	1,766	0.33%	1.93%
37	1,921	0.48%	4.58%
38	2,113	0.35%	2.70%
39	2,190	0.26%	1.51%
40	2,046	0.33%	2.35%
41	1,978	0.43%	3.89%
42	1,957	0.27%	1.43%
43	1,814	0.38%	2.65%
44	1,532	0.45%	3.13%
45	1,312	0.51%	3.58%
46	1,086	0.42%	1.93%
47	757	0.73%	4.23%
48	548	0.67%	2.55%
49	366	0.61%	1.37%
50	223	1.25%	3.59%
51	137	1.44%	2.92%

---

Methodology:

• All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (data from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for the frequncy of various totals.
• The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with a closing over/under within 2 points of the over/under in question ending with a total equal to that over/unders. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 42 was determined from all games with a closing over/under between 40 and 44.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

[Ganchrow]

At Even Odds: Spread Prob. ML 0 EV 50.00% ±100.0 0½ EV 50.05% ±100.2 1 EV 51.08% ±104.4 1½ EV 52.08% ±108.7 2 EV 53.02% ±112.9 2½ EV 53.86% ±116.7 3 EV 58.78% ±142.6 3½ EV 62.22% ±164.7 4 EV 63.84% ±176.5 4½ EV 64.75% ±183.7 5 EV 65.94% ±193.6 5½ EV 66.56% ±199.0 6 EV 68.53% ±217.8 6½ EV 69.44% ±227.2 7 EV 73.20% ±273.1 7½ EV 74.58% ±293.3 8 EV 75.86% ±314.3 8½ EV 76.27% ±321.4 9 EV 77.05% ±335.7 9½ EV 77.28% ±340.1 10 EV 80.64% ±416.6 10½ EV 81.45% ±439.0 11 EV 83.28% ±498.2 11½ EV 83.65% ±511.7 12 EV 84.64% ±551.1 12½ EV 84.82% ±558.8 13 EV 86.83% ±659.1 13½ EV 87.13% ±677.1 14 EV 90.34% ±934.9 14½ EV 90.68% ±972.9 15 EV 91.86% ±1128.0 15½ EV 91.96% ±1144.0 16 EV 93.63% ±1468.9 16½ EV 93.74% ±1497.3 17 EV 96.61% ±2850.2 17½ EV 96.71% ±2940.5

At -110: Spread Prob. Fave ML Dog ML PK -110 50.00% -110.0 -110.0 0½ -110 50.05% -110.2 -109.8 1 -110 51.08% -115.1 -105.1 1½ -110 52.08% -120.1 -100.8 2 -110 53.02% -125.0 +103.2 2½ -110 53.86% -129.5 +106.9 3 -110 58.78% -160.2 +131.5 3½ -110 62.22% -187.2 +152.7 4 -110 63.84% -201.9 +163.9 4½ -110 64.75% -210.9 +170.8 5 -110 65.94% -223.4 +180.3 5½ -110 66.56% -230.3 +185.4 6 -110 68.53% -254.5 +203.3 6½ -110 69.44% -266.9 +212.3 7 -110 73.20% -311.0 +260.9 7½ -110 74.58% -357.2 +275.4 8 -110 75.86% -387.2 +295.4 8½ -110 76.27% -397.5 +302.2 9 -110 77.05% -418.5 +315.9 9½ -110 77.28% -425.2 +320.1 10 -110 80.64% -544.4 +393.1 10½ -110 81.45% -581.5 +414.5 11 -110 83.28% -684.2 +471.0 11½ -110 83.65% -708.7 +483.9 12 -110 84.64% -782.8 +521.5 12½ -110 84.82% -797.7 +528.9 13 -110 86.83% -1006.4 +624.6 13½ -110 87.13% -1046.9 +641.8 14 -110 90.34% -1765.2 +887.8 14½ -110 90.68% -1899.1 +924.2 15 -110 91.86% -2553.3 +1072.2 15½ -110 91.96% -2632.6 +1087.4 16 -110 93.63% -5121.0 +1397.6 16½ -110 93.74% -5466.1 +1424.7 17 -110 96.61% 17½ -110 96.71%

[brewer]

this stuff is impressive. glad i joined the site.

[Don Dollars]

Thank you for posting this. Excellent information.

[Scorpion]

The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.

why??

wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??

[Ganchrow]

why??

wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??

No. Because sample sizes are so small, we look at a larger radius in order to effectively increase the data set. This is a standard technique for this sort of analysis.

See Wong, Chapters 13-14.

[swifty]

WOW didn't know that info. Thank you for posting this. Excellent information

[Skidcom]

Agreed.thanx for the info and the sleepless nights trying to figure out what to do with it

[madsiz]

great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?

[Ganchrow]

great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?

Thanks.

You might want to check out my Half-Point Calculator.

[sharktank1]

Outstanding info. Thanx!

[Skidcom]

That 17 frequency is very interesting considering the Pats game. Ordinarily I wouldn't recommend teasers at such a high number...maybe it is worth it

[Ganchrow]

The 17 figure of 8.70% is for N=46. That's a very sample size, corresponding to a standard error of about 4.20%. I'd personally not embark on major changes in my own strategy based on so small a dataset.

The updated data in my Half-Point Calculator gives a figure of 4.55% (with a standard error of 2.60%), a much more realistic figure.

[babytyger]

Monday Night Football: Baltimore and the under

[CrapsMyWay]

Thanks for the info...Good Luck!

[babytyger]

Play money line for Jacksonville!!!!!!! They will win easily!!!!!!!!!

[Poker_Beast]

Thanks for the post!

GO GIANTS in the SB!!!

[INVEGA MAN]

Very interesting

[TodaysAction]

Others have already said this but never-the-less, thank you for posting this information and looking forward to seeing it updated week-by-week.