[frostno98]

This is my 1st lock pick post this year. This bet is about as easy as they come. Chargers are a horrible team. They've only won two road games this years, one against the (3-11 raiders) and the other being the (2-12 Chiefs). This team will struggle against a bunch of pissst off Buccaneers players who got their hearts ripped out in the waning moments in that Atlanta game.

This is a must win for both teams but given San Diego's noticeable struggles on the road against far inferior opponents, makes Tampa Bay an Easy Pick here. Plus Gruden prepares his player better than Norv and their will be no let down from the Bucs D this time.

[haserfauld]

I like this too. with the current line positions i dont see anything better, for sure. I like indy at -6.5, but nothing else looks strong to me without having to buy points or tease.

any word about garcia/griese?

edit: my book doesn't haven't it yet though.

[MJFtheGenius]

if that's the line it seems fishy

[frostno98]

Won't matter who's the QB. The Chargers will be the chokers here. They beat the Chiefs on the Road thanks to a lucky onside kick at the end. When they beat the Raiders on the Road, the Raiders were up 15-3 in the 3rd quarter before becoming the raiders again and losing 28-18. You get the picture, even their road wins against two teams who are a combined 5-23 weren't impressive.

Some might say, well they took the best AFC team Steeler to the wire and only lost by 1. The Steeler had many Redzone opportunities in that game to blow it wide open but settle for 3 short field goals. I just don't see the Charger somehow just flipping a switch after all those games and beating a good Bucs team that is 6-0 at home. A lost here can potentially knock the Bucs out of the playoff picture too! The common sense knowledge here is when you have two desperate teams, is it wise to go with the team that has struggled all season as a visitor or go with a team that has yet to lose at home all year?

The answer is simple, hammer the Bucs.

[guru-t]

I like the Bucs as well but seriously take a look at the Pats-Cards game.That is my game of the year.This is the strongest play on the board by far!!!!!Pats will bloodgeon the Card!

[frostno98]

if that's the line it seems fishy

Lines is right because you got two desperate teams in a must win situation. Charger is still a public favorite and will get hammer in the moneyline. Griese playing will probably tilt it more toward the Chargers.

[VegasDave]

San Diego will be one of my top plays next week.

Good luck though sir

[guru-t]

San Diego will be one of my top plays next week.

Good luck though sir

Hey Dave.I'm a missing something?The Pats are the strongest play of the Year IMO.-7.5 vs the Cards at home?Damn I wish they would play this now!!!

[Dark Horse]

TB is having problems defending against the run (LT), and a long injury list. Too early to bet for me until the starting QB is known.

No denying SD is having a nightmare of a season, but don't think of this as a 6-8 team. This is only the third time they're underdogs this season. They won the previous two times ATS (lost both games by 1 pt).

[BigMoney]

STEELERS (even) now, will go up soon



PATRIOTS-7.5 buy hook to -7

[slacker00]

This is another one of those noted West to East road trips this year. The West-Coasters are having a heck of a time so far. San Diego has failed to impress all year.

[pimike]

San Diego will be one of my top plays next week.

Good luck though sir

Denver loss chargers win, YEA then it will conme down to the final gameof the year.


Denver has been known to choke

[guru-t]

STEELERS (even) now, will go up soon



PATRIOTS-7.5 buy hook to -7

Like the Steelers as well.The pats are my game of the year.I've been waiting for everything to come together so I could make a huge play.This is it.Zona is in the playoffs by default.Play each team in the worst division in football twice.The Pats at home in December fighting for their playoff lives.Welcome to the big time Zona.Zona IMO isn't even a playoff team.This will be a complete shalacking.Collection time midway through the 3rd quarter.Maybe earlier!

[frostno98]

Denver loss chargers win, YEA then it will conme down to the final gameof the year.


Denver has been known to choke

Nice try Mike, but the laughs going to be on you and them overrated Chargers. Got lucky against a 2 win Chiefs team, and nows you guys are on top of the world. I can't wait to see what Tampa Bay is going to do on this miserable Chargers offense. They have yet to do anything well on the road all season and they're going to suddenly turn it on and beat a playoff aspiring team that is undefeated at home this year

Let me re-emphasis these two fact for you feeble minded folks that don't pay attention, that why you guys always lose.

Chargers only 2 road wins, against Raiders and Chiefs combined (5-32) record. They also struggled mightily in both of those wins against them two horrible teams.

Bucs a flawless 6-0 record at home regardless who's at QB, enough said.

[slacker00]

Something else to consider is that the Chargers still have a shot at the playoffs if they win and Denver loses. If this scenerio happens the Chargers play Denver in SD the final game of the season. BUCS/Chargers play at 1 PM and Denver doesnt play until 4 PM on Sunday. SS Phillips is also out for the BUCS.

Good point. I was thinking the Chargers were already eliminated. Albeit, I don't see the Broncos choking at home to the hapless Bills. Nevertheless, it might be a motivator for the Chargers, them thinking they've still got a playoff shot.

I still don't like the west to east road team, but I also hate Griese starting at QB. Maybe I'll just leave this one alone.

[ohdear]

I love the Chargers here. Most people get blinded by their crummy record but they can still be explosive. They "out-talent" Tampa by a lot.

Also, the Denver game being at 4 is key for me here. Denver will be 8-6 no matter what by time the Chargers game finishes. If the game times were flipped and Denver played first, I'd be hesitant to bet on the Chargers because they would probably have nothing to play for by game time.

P.S. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a pick 6 against Griese. He loves to chuck it up there and Cromartie and the rest of the secondary will be ready.

[slacker00]

Here's a neat angle to play regarding the Chargers playing early & the Broncos playing late: parlay both teams ML. Because if the Chargers win, then Denver will have that much extra motivation to win and not have to play an effective playoff game next week. Also parlay the Bucs & Bills ML, because if the Chargers lose the early game, then the Broncos might let up knowing they've clinched anyway. Just some thoughts.

[frostno98]

What people are missing is this is a Must Win for Tampa too! If they lose, then Atlanta, Dallas, or Philly will gain substantial ground in the playoff race, they need this win just as bad as the Chargers. From my years in watching football, teams don't just suddenly flip a switch and become good when they want to. It's usually takes weeks of consistent good winnings to get that swagger going and the Chargers has yet to do it. They barely escape a Must Win in KC. This Chargers team is just not that good, but people will take them based on what they did last year, that's why they'll be a public favorite.

Griese is not that bad as you guy might think. This guy is a smart passer and will manage the game well. His completion ratings are usually high because he doesn't throw deep often because of his weak arm. This also eliminate his chance of being intercepted. The Chargers has yet to show me this season they can do anything right on the road and I just don't see them beating a good Bucs team that's undefeated at home.

[NardVa]

The Chargers will go to Tampa and win the Bills will go to Denver and win. Why? Because this is the NFL and for some weird reason I think it's destined for the Chargers and Broncos to meet in the last game of the season with a playoff spot on the line with the Chargers winning. The Chargers have fate on their side. That's why they won in KC last week.

[guru-t]

The Chargers will go to Tampa and win the Bills will go to Denver and win. Why? Because this is the NFL and for some weird reason I think it's destined for the Chargers and Broncos to meet in the last game of the season with a playoff spot on the line with the Chargers winning. The Chargers have fate on their side. That's why they won in KC last week.

Not a bad point actually!!

[pinnacle212]

The line in the Tampa game moved from 3 to 3.5. Line moves towards Tampa but your losing a bit of value taking them at -3.5. Tampa is notorious for losing or winning by 3 points.
16-13 L Denver
30-27 W KC
23-20 W NO
13-10 L Atlanta
28.5 percent of games played 3 or less points. QB questions. Defense? I bet San Diego at 3.5 or leave it alone.