[jesron1269]

I am leaning Philly -14 and over 39 in a parlay. Tell why I should not do this. The two reasons I am leaning this way is that in Phillys wins they have won by an average of over 17 points and in their wins the total game score average was over 40 points. Hence if you go with the trends it would be Philly and over... that is if you believe Philly is going to win.

Plus add to the fact that it is a Monday Night Football and the over trend. Add to that the fact that Philly plays much better at home and Dorsey is Cleveland's QB. I see a 31-14 time of game. What do you think?

[jesron1269]

Play:

Philly -14 (I got this number from my local). This is the only play on the side. My angles are as follows:

17.7 - Philly's margin of victory (MOV) on all wins this season
14.8 - MOV on wins if take biggest MOV out
16.6 - MOV on wins if take out biggest and smalls MOV ot
21.3 - Philly's MOV on all home wins this season
16.7 - MOV on home wins if take biggest home MOV out
20.5 - MOV on home wins if take biggest and smalles home MOV out
29.3 - Philly's points per game at home (including wins and losses)
17.0 - Philly's points per game allowed at home (including wins and losses)
6, 6 and 9 - Cleveland's last three games point totals (the first two at home and the last on the road)

What does all this mean? A blow out on MNF with Philly winning by at least 20. I am getting off the over but I am not playing the total either way because my original lean is over and unless there is a monsoon I probably will not be playing the under.

Good teaser would be (9 point football/6 point basketball):

Philly -5
Philly Over 30
Syracuse -6.5

What are your thoughts? BOL.

Thanks,



Jesse

[Robust]

very nice breakdowns.. i look at the exact same numbers on my spreadsheet..

and with those numbers, should't you lean on the over? I know if Cle scores 7 only, it might be hard to go over, but i am guessing they score 10-13..

good luck!

Robust

[jesron1269]

Robust:

I like the over too... that was my initial lean. But it is not a play at this point since I cannot guarantee that Cleveland scores anything more than 6-9 like they have so far the last three weeks. I like the side better than the total. Plus I got a little burnt last night with the NYG and Dallas total. That was my favorite play... I played it straight, parlayed it and teased it (12 point tease). I lost the straight bet, it killed my five team parlay and my four team teaser. I cannot believe the teaser did not even come in. The point I am trying to make was that I was certain Dallas would cover last night as I am today with Philly. I like the side better than the total. That being said I am certain I will also play the same teaser listed above with the total over 30.

Thanks,


Jesse

[whatdafuxup]

Let's hope you're right Jesse. Lost huge with tenn -3 yesterday. Need this one bad

[jtnguyen79]

thinking philly and under

[jesron1269]

whatdafuxup... I think you will be fine. I teased Tennessee and turned out okay but I thought they were going to pull it out there at the end. There was just so many good cappers on Houston that I could not play it straight. I can see why you did though as I also leaned Tennessee.

BOL!

[cruzanbeast]

My local guy has the game at Phil -14 o/u at 38.5 and the 1st half at Phil -7 o/u at 19.5. Any thoughts...I was leaning on a 4 teamer with Philly covering both and the overs.

[jesron1269]

thinking philly and under

I could see the under coming in too... the thing I hate though about playing such a high spread for the side and the under though is it does not give you much room if Cleveland actually plays and scores a couple of TDs. By playing the over it is not the end of the world of Cleveland scores a couple of times (of course would be happy with a 21-0 shut out but you get my point).

BOL!

[MTek]

I'm from Philly, Big Eagles fan...staying clear tonight

I think Eagles win easlily, double digits..16... might be too much.

Remember just a few short weeks ago the eagle TIED the Bengals.

Also just re-discovered their ground game, lots of eating up the clock, gring it out type of game...if anything I'd lean towards the under...just my opinion

GL to all

[jesron1269]

My local guy has the game at Phil -14 o/u at 38.5 and the 1st half at Phil -7 o/u at 19.5. Any thoughts...I was leaning on a 4 teamer with Philly covering both and the overs.

Again love Philly -14... I did not look at 1H trends. As it relates to the O/U I would lean over 38.5, but I am not playing any totals.

Thanks,


Jesse

[jesron1269]

Play:

Philly -14 (I got this number from my local). This is the only play on the side. My angles are as follows:

17.7 - Philly's margin of victory (MOV) on all wins this season
14.8 - MOV on wins if take biggest MOV out
16.6 - MOV on wins if take out biggest and smalls MOV ot
21.3 - Philly's MOV on all home wins this season
16.7 - MOV on home wins if take biggest home MOV out
20.5 - MOV on home wins if take biggest and smalles home MOV out
29.3 - Philly's points per game at home (including wins and losses)
17.0 - Philly's points per game allowed at home (including wins and losses)
6, 6 and 9 - Cleveland's last three games point totals (the first two at home and the last on the road)

What does all this mean? A blow out on MNF with Philly winning by at least 20. I am getting off the over but I am not playing the total either way because my original lean is over and unless there is a monsoon I probably will not be playing the under.

Good teaser would be (9 point football/6 point basketball):

Philly -5
Philly Over 30
Syracuse -6.5

What are your thoughts? BOL.

Thanks,



Jesse

Philly wins by exactly 20 ... over would have came in for me (I had with with my local at 39) but again not a no brainer so I decided to pass as the side looked a lot better.

If it was not for the Kolb (what a knob) pick six this would not even be close but I will be happy to win my bet by six.

Thank God I decided not to play the above teaser as Cuse lost tonight... I like Cleveland State too but dang being Cuse at home is impressive.

Best of luck the rest of the week boys!!!