[Trivial]

Here are my thoughts today (not yet locked):

Atlanta +3
Atlanta UNDER 48 (Bodog)
Denver OVER 33.5

Thoughts are welcome.

[burchfield]

First time tailing and I hope today is alot better

[Redscot]

There are just way too many variables to account for in football. I dont know how anyone beats the nfl, especially totals. Very strange unpredictable things happen all the time. That is why i have so much respect for LTA, dexter and others who can do it. Dexter's unit total is unreal. He knows which plays to pump hard and which are 1x plays . Incredible. LTA prepares better than anyone, just a touch of a struggle. I think it a bit of a misnomer to say the lines are the sharpest. That total flew over. Not like vegas pegged it. They got killed last night on saints and over, you can believe it. Love atlanta today by the way red. That is another team that has it all on offense and enough on defense.

Agreed DB. The totals in the NFL are so combustible. Defensive scores, pass interference penalties and special teams to a lesser extent are just so tough to account for. I take my hat off to LTA as well, although I wonder sometimes if he focused more on sides in the NFL he would have an easier go at it. I'd be interested in his opinion on that actually. I have Atlanta/Pitt teased to +9,-2 respectively. GL today.

[Trivial]

I have Under 48 and have a live bet of over 36 in the Atlanta game. Wish me luck.

Also have Atlanta +3.

Thinking of Over 34 for Denver.

[Redscot]

Good luck on your plays. I am passing on the early NFL game all the way around. Might play the late game, but we'll see.

I concentrate more on the totals markets for the sports markets in which I invest because they generally provide for softer opening numbers and more +ev opportunities. In addition, you generally have less volume and more sharp action in the totals markets. Consequently, if you can stay one step ahead of the sharp action and sharp steam, you can give yourself a larger edge on totals than on sides.

In general with the NFL, just like my other investment markets, I can give myself more of an edge -- and thus more +ev per play -- by concentrating on the totals markets. As you know, the line rarely moves against my o/u plays once I have locked them in. That is because I have worked very hard to both develop my model and refine my natural instincts in order to predict (1) the direction the line will move and (2) when the steam will hit. Staying one step ahead of the market is what gives me my edge and is why I concentrate my investements in totals.

In the side markets, you have way more volume and much less volatile line movement compared to totals. Everything revolves around key numbers in the NFL. Therefore, you will see a bigger adjustment in price (juice going up to -115 or more) than actually moves when an opening number is set at a key number like 3, 7, etc. The margins are razor sharp on NFL sides because that is where the books direct most of the attention. In general, NFL lines are sharper in the NFL than any other sport. That applies to both sides and totals. However, the books know more people will plays sides rather than totals so they put more work and attention to sides.

My model detects less "value" on sides because my numbers and Vegas numbers on sides are often very close. That is why I do not play as many sides -- I just can't find an edge. However, I very often detect value on totals and that value is most often where the line will end up moving. As you know, I am, for the most part, a value player first and foremost. Consequently, I don't play as many sides because the "value" just isn't there, whereas we might find a FG or more of value on a handful of totals each week.

This was just an unusual season with a lot of bad beats. Hypothetically, I should get a lot of breaks next season and have one of my better NFL seasons next year. I guess only time will tell. Either way, however, I don't mind giving a little money back on football because that keeps me from getting limited or cut off from NBA and MLB action. As you know, those are my two priorities. NFL and NCAAF are more about a bridge between those two seasons than anything else.

Thanks for the response bro, makes a lot of sense.

[brucethebear]

Hey LTA,
Cheers for the great response. Based on the above, have you given any thought to player props?

All th best for the rest of the season.

[brucethebear]

No, I have no interest in player props. There are just way too many variables...

Fair enough mate.

[Redscot]

What are you playing in the 2nd game?

Well Atlanta ****** my teaser with Pitt. Being the action junkie I am, went with Pitt/Over teaser.......need a Pitt. victory and 27 points , 27 points!

[Redscot]

I like Denver's game plan so far...just throw it deep and hope for the best. They have nothing to lose.

I also have to be fair. Despite my conclusions that Tebow will not find long term success as a starting qb -- and I still firmly believe that -- he throws a great deep ball. He is inaccurate on the short to mid level stuff, but he does have a pretty accurate deep ball.

Wow! Just Wow! Agreed on Denver's game plan. Where was it the last 3 weeks though? I ain't a believer. They are certainly in great position for this game atm though.

[Trivial]

My 0.5x on Denver winning the superbowl... Still alive.

[Redscot]

My 0.5x on Denver winning the superbowl... Still alive.

Right on Triv!

[guil0000]

LTA, any toughts on Saints/49er O/U 47.5 next week. I like one side but figured I'd ask you since totals us your strength

[TomatoFace]

Any bets made for the weekend yet? Some of these spreads are head scratchers..

[Redscot]

I think N.E. obliterates Denver personally. I have a small play on the S.F under and another small Tease S.F./under. Love to hear what you are thinking

[frostie]

N.o - 3.5 not touching the under/over in this If anything I like the under but after last week I can't take an under on a new Orleans game lol

[absolutkaos]

Tebow time has run out. NE by two TD's, and I'm feeling a bit like this one might go over.

I agree with Red that the SF game goes under, not by much, but that Niners run D is stiff and should take Sproles out of the game, and I think the Niners win.

[hey buddy]

Liking the Pats a lot. I see slight value in SF but NO scares me too much.