[Robust]

It is a short capping week for this game so i thought i should post early to get some opinions.

My numbers for the season say Denver is the pick, but within the last four weeks, Cleveland is the easy choice outscoring Denver by almost 10 pts avg and winning by 3.5 pts avg.

Plus they have home field. Plus the public is on Denver and the side remains at -3.

I see this game as 27-17 Cleveland.

So Picks are Cle -3 and Under 46.

Your thoughts?

Robust

[Robust]

Also, within the last four games, Cleveland Scores 31 avg pts at home to Denvers 7 away (Only away game in the last four against NE)

Robust

[Godzilla]

Cleveland is starting a new QB, so who knows how he will play or how the offense will look. Which is why I like Denver.

[hakrjak]

Brady Quinn is the big question mark.... Will he come in like a savior, or will he stink it up worse than the guy he is replacing? Denver doesn't have much D, and has a depleted secondary -- So it's a good game to start Quinn and get him some confidence. I kinda like Cleveand here too...

If only Braylon Edwards would stop dropping sure TD passes!

- Hakrjak

[Robust]

Bradys College career was outstanding. Still trying to find the stats for his debut against Sf (forgot).. But I am leaning towards this being a good thing for the browns..

Denver won't know much about how he reacts on the field, so they might not get reads of what he is about to do with the ball.

Robust

[Robust]

1 drive.. 3 of 8 for 45 yards.. not great, but not bad..

Robust

[kroyrunner89]

my systems aren't showing much value for this game, but they're leaning Denver -3 and over 46.

[BigD]

Denver can't stop anyone. Jay Cutler needs glasses

[l7ustin]

I like Cleveland. Den cant stop the run, Jamal Lewis baby. And if the Broncos struggled to throw against Miami's defense...I believe Clevelands is better against the pass.

Not to mention Andre Hall and Pittman are out for the season. I think Tauron is good but come on.

Cutler is still hurt I dont think he is healed from the injury he doesnt look like himself

[Robust]

Originally Posted by kroyrunner89

my systems aren't showing much value for this game, but they're leaning Denver -3 and over 46.

yeah.. prolly just looking for some action (not good ).. a 2- picker pays nicely though..

btw.. Den +3

Robust

[Robust]

Originally Posted by kroyrunner89

my systems aren't showing much value for this game, but they're leaning Denver -3 and over 46.

oh.. forgot to ask.. Why over? you see denver scoring alot of points?

On the cleveland side, with Quinn in, i would think it would be lower scoring as he is gonna barely get his feet wet..

Robust

[kroyrunner89]

Originally Posted by Robust

oh.. forgot to ask.. Why over? you see denver scoring alot of points?

On the cleveland side, with Quinn in, i would think it would be lower scoring as he is gonna barely get his feet wet..

Robust

sorry i had a brain cramp when i wrote it, my system leans towards the under and denver +3. so yes, i agree with you on the under, but the system isn't showing much value in that pick so i'll probably stay away. a denver +9 under 52 teaser doesn't look too bad though...

[Always Somethin']

Originally Posted by Robust

oh.. forgot to ask.. Why over? you see denver scoring alot of points?

On the cleveland side, with Quinn in, i would think it would be lower scoring as he is gonna barely get his feet wet..

Robust

When Quinn came in during a game last season, they let him throw it all over. A drop by Braylon(BIG SURPRISE) and a dropped TD by Winslow. Don't be shocked if they drop some points on a BAD Den D.

[kroyrunner89]

Originally Posted by Always Somethin'

When Quinn came in during a game last season, they let him throw it all over. A drop by Braylon(BIG SURPRISE) and a dropped TD by Winslow. Don't be shocked if they drop some points on a BAD Den D.

yeah, on second though the safer teaser might be Den. +9 and over 40. last year excluding thanksgiving games all the thursday night games had totals of over 40, aside from the redskins bears game which totaled 40 exactly.

[Legend4Aday]

Definitely Cleveland, GL Robust

[l7ustin]

Which way is the line going to move? If we are going to bet Cle maybe we should wait?

[DaChosen1FoSho]

Originally Posted by l7ustin

Which way is the line going to move? If we are going to bet Cle maybe we should wait?

I'm taking my trip south of the border tomorrow, so this is something I'd like to know as well.

I'm leaning towards CLE -3. Its dropped a half point from 3.5 to 3 in 24 hours. Id be super stoked to get it at -2.5 in less then 18 hours. But I doub it will happen.

[Robust]

Originally Posted by l7ustin

Which way is the line going to move? If we are going to bet Cle maybe we should wait?

The money is comming in back on Cleveland. The side is still at 3 in most places except Pinny which has it at -3.5 +110 as i type this. Most books do not want to offer 3.5 because of teasers, so look for it to stay at 3 unless so much money comes in, they jump to 4. If you want cleveland with as little points laid down, get them now!

unfortunately, the public will bet the cheap home favorite, so it's now or never on cleveland.. or a last sec bet on Denver at around +4 or +5.

good luck all!

Robust

[keystonekid]

Thursday: Denver @ Cleveland current line Cleveland -3 total 46

My further research is showing Cleveland winning by 4-5 pts and the total at 46-51 pts.

Therefore at this point my pick would be: Cleveland -3 Over 46

NOTES:
Cleveland has benched their starting QB and will start rookie Brady Quinn who has little experience as a Pro.
The Denver Broncos have placed running backs Michael Pittman and Andre Hall on injured reserve, depleting an already thin backfield.


________________________________________ ___________

[frostno98]

This is one of those bets you get every year where people over analyze and worry about what's a public line or not and end up losing because your trying to be too smart. The Bet here is simple, You take Denver!

You should always take a struggling team with a proven QB, against a struggling team with a rookie QB in Brady. Yeah, Brady still a rookie because he hasn't started any regular season game.

[manofmyth]

What value does Denver have?? They have a banged up QB, he obviously isn't healed from the hit he took on his hand against NE on MNF. They have no backfield, that leaves double coverage on Marshall. Denver's TE is banged up, so that takes the confindence away from Cutler to throw it at the checkdown/outlet receiver, and Denver's LB's and DB's are injured and depleted by injuries.

Jamal Lewis should have a decent ground attack against Denver's shady run D, thus giving Quinn a chance for play-action rollouts, bootlegs, etc...Cleveland has a decent pass rush, evident against NYG on MNF, they pressured Eli all game and made him make bad throws, so Clevelands pass rush should get to Cutler early and often.

Both teams should be able to score, unless the weather changes drastically. But, I do see Cleveland forcing more 3-and-outs, wearing out Denver's injured D all game long.

Cleveland -3
Over 46

*********for those of you who don't have NFL Network, you can catch the game on-line at channelsurfing.net*****************

[just me]

Denver+3 and under 46

[CaneDawg]

small play on the home team

cleveland 27
denver 17

[toadstyle]

Cleveland ML and under 46......fo sho

[keystonekid]

I am going to give the edge to Cleveland tonight even though they are starting a rookie QB. Denver has been struggling on Offense on the road and short of RB's. If Cleveland steps it up on D they should be able to hold Denver to few points. Quinn may engergize the Offense with a fresh look and youth, if they can get a running game going. A lot of field goals tonight with Cleveland getting 1-more than Denver.

Cleveland 20
Denver 17

Good Luck

NFL Predictions '08
Cleveland 24
Denver 20



________________________________________ _________

[BigD]

Denver lost to Kansas City yes Kansas City by 14. That KC only wins of the year and Denver was 100% healthy.

Denver got lit up by Matt Cassel for three TD with Champ Bailey who will not play
tonight. Quinn is a better than Cassel

The Defense is the worst in the league. Cutler has thrown 6int in the last three games

I know anything can happen but tell how Denver comes close to winning this game

[teaserpleaser]

Browns have no pass rush... If Cutler is ever going to make the right reads it would be tonight.

[manofmyth]

Cleveland has no pass rush?? Didn't they get Eli scrambling and big ole Rogers pancaking Eli to the grass on MNF? Wasn't that the worst game Eli had all year? Wasn't that at Cleveland, and the only NFL game that night? Did the NYG O-line have a hard time picking up the stunts and blizters Cleveland sent the whole game? Who is healthy on Denver's O-line? Who's healthy for Denver as far as a running back to keep in the backfield to max-protect? If Denver couldn't take advantage of Miami's poor pass D, how can they attack Cleveland's secondary when they can pin their ears back and pick off Cutler. If you notice, Cutler's numbers and play has dropped as the RB's and O-line keep getting hurt. There isn't anyone to hand the ball of consistently to alleviate the pressure off the O-line. Cutler used to be affective rolling out of the pocket to make throws, but with his hand sore, and confidence levels are low right now. Also when he rolls out, Marshall is always double teamed, and Royal is just what he is, a second option without that much of a threat. Denvers TE Schefller has been banged up, he's questionable with a groin injury. Even if he plays how effective can he be? So, let's see what surrounds Cutler.....no effective RB behind him, 1 real WR threat that'll be double-teamed all night long. His best receiver hurt with a groin injury, and a sore hand as well. Defensively Denver has lost too many people in key areas. LB Boss Bailey and his brother CB Champ Bailey are out for this game, CB Dre Bly has an injured leg, that'll slow him down (if he plays, look for a pump-fake from Quinn and a long ball down the field early to get his rhythm going, and to get the crowd involved). How can Denver know what to do with a QB who they have no film on, and who's been waiting for this moment since he got drafted. Denver is horrible on the road, and Cleveland seems to play well on big national TV stages.

Cleveland half -2 2 units
Cleveland game -3 2 units
Over 46 1 unit

[toadstyle]

IM CALLING THIS ONE OUT!

BROWNS -3
UNDER 46

AND FOR THE MONEY PICK- DENVER scores first with a field goal!

[frostno98]

I don't what to say, but good luck sucka's. Denver going whoop the brownies @SSES.

[Chi_archie]

gotta love HOMERS in a wagering forum.....

[EDFED]

a little parlay

DEN +145 and the UNDER 47

$20 pays $74 sportsbook.com

CLE is the better team, no question - I bet only b/c I like the payout and crazier things have happened, i'm just hoping quinn takes time to ramp up and that Cutler finds Marshall or Royal early...

[teaserpleaser]

Originally Posted by manofmyth

Cleveland has no pass rush?? Didn't they get Eli scrambling and big ole Rogers pancaking Eli to the grass on MNF? Wasn't that the worst game Eli had all year? Wasn't that at Cleveland, and the only NFL game that night? Did the NYG O-line have a hard time picking up the stunts and blizters Cleveland sent the whole game? Who is healthy on Denver's O-line? Who's healthy for Denver as far as a running back to keep in the backfield to max-protect? If Denver couldn't take advantage of Miami's poor pass D, how can they attack Cleveland's secondary when they can pin their ears back and pick off Cutler. If you notice, Cutler's numbers and play has dropped as the RB's and O-line keep getting hurt. There isn't anyone to hand the ball of consistently to alleviate the pressure off the O-line. Cutler used to be affective rolling out of the pocket to make throws, but with his hand sore, and confidence levels are low right now. Also when he rolls out, Marshall is always double teamed, and Royal is just what he is, a second option without that much of a threat. Denvers TE Schefller has been banged up, he's questionable with a groin injury. Even if he plays how effective can he be? So, let's see what surrounds Cutler.....no effective RB behind him, 1 real WR threat that'll be double-teamed all night long. His best receiver hurt with a groin injury, and a sore hand as well. Defensively Denver has lost too many people in key areas. LB Boss Bailey and his brother CB Champ Bailey are out for this game, CB Dre Bly has an injured leg, that'll slow him down (if he plays, look for a pump-fake from Quinn and a long ball down the field early to get his rhythm going, and to get the crowd involved). How can Denver know what to do with a QB who they have no film on, and who's been waiting for this moment since he got drafted. Denver is horrible on the road, and Cleveland seems to play well on big national TV stages.

Cleveland half -2 2 units
Cleveland game -3 2 units
Over 46 1 unit

You must be going with the lack of pass rush from Clevland huh... I didnt need to write this big paragraph to collect my $$$. 34 points wouldnt be allowed with a pass rush.

[just me]

I TOLD YOu
I only play denver +3 since I'm never play over or under,not the big fan of o/u