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Baltimore spread @ Indy
How can anyone who has watched either of these teams this year justify this spread? Do people think Baltimore outplaying their opponent every game (yes they out played Pitt and Ten) is a fluke? I think sometimes people get too caught up on assumptions than actually looking at teams, and this matchup seems to be a case of that. The public seems to be reluctant to give up on preseason expectations of these two teams... I will be surprised if the Colts win this game.
Baltimore can run the ball, and Indy can't stop the run.
I like Baltimore here, although right now I am staying away. I missed the boat on the soft early line, and am going to wait it out, or just pass on the game.
I caught the early line but I would still take Baltimore +4/4.5. And I suspect it will rise close to six on Sunday morning.
I jumped on Balt at +6 but this game scares me for the same reason it scares everyone else...it's risky betting against Peyton Manning. On paper clearly the line is wrong but Manning and the Colts can get on track any week here and Balt is starting a rookie QB.
Baltimore is a definite top ten team in my eyes. They have the best defense in the NFL and a very good offensive line, but their special teams and quarterback play are bad. They would be better off using McClain more, IMO.
That's the kind of assumption thinking I mentioned in the original post. We have two teams who have performed opposite of each other and their respective preseason expectations. People are reluctant to accept that this Colts team just isn't the same right now as in years past. Even if their offense suddenly puts it together - a tall task against this defense - what are the chances their defense can follow suit? Even their special teams have been atrocious this year.Originally Posted by roasthawg
If you think Baltimore is a top 10 team, this is a slam dunk. Pound the Ravens.
Personally, I think both are middling teams, maybe I'd rank the Ravens at #16 and Indy around #13 as far as overall team strength for week 6. Either of these teams could go either way this year. This week will go a long way to determining which way each will go.
One thing they keep bringing up during the Colts games is how they've never been this bad this early in the year. Usually the Colts start the season strong, then kinda fade towards the end of the season. This year the fade started week 1. This is a bad sign. Maybe the team is in decline.
Last edited by slacker00; 10-08-08 at 10:04 PM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 10/6/2005
How can you possibly justify ranking Indy AHEAD of Baltimore right now? Have you watched either of these teams? Baltimore has out played every team they've faced, including undefeated Tennessee.
I would agree with that. Baltimore is still starting a rookie qb, and the Colts still have Manning.
I hope so.
I've watched all of the Indy games, including preseason.
I haven't seen much of the Ravens, though. So maybe you're right. Maybe they are a top 10 team. They've always had a great defense, this year seems no different. I'm just not in love with their offense. Is it really that much better with Flaco than the various other QBs over the years?
SBR Founder Join Date: 10/6/2005
QB is one position; yes the most important on the field, but when one team has a dominating unit like Baltimore's defense, I love the points. And I love the fact that I think Baltimore has been much better than Indy this year. I am trying to get a glimpse of why people like Indy more than just assuming the team will start to bounce back.
And Element, it looks to me like the public is on Indy so hopefully they hit that side hard come Saturday and Sunday
Don't get me wrong Flacco hasn't been very good and the passing offense stinks, but the offensive line has been extremely good at run blocking (I would really like McClain to get the majority of the touches as he has been one of the best RBs this year) and pretty good at keeping Flacco upright. Their elite defense and exceptional run game equals top 10 team to me.
Ironically enough, ESPN.com has the Ravens ranked at #15. And they said it best, "The Ravens played well the past two weeks and have nothing to show for it. Can this team keep bouncing back from tough losses?". They have a good, physical defense, but not the best in the NFL. Their offense lulls you to sleep. Good teams find ways to win. This team, as hard and competitive as they have been, finds ways to lose.
I'll be the first one to admit the Ravens have played better thus far this year than the Colts. Yet they both have a 2-2 record. This game should be good, but the Colts have more talent and it's not wise betting against a Manning.
ravens have a good shot to get this one
indy definitely not what they used to be, especially m.harrison
manning sacked alot more than usual
head coach might just be going thru the motions this year
balt has a good running game w mcgahee and mcclain's been doing well instead of ray rice
flacco seems ok and is due to throw a td pass or 2 in the dome
balt is banged up in the secondary tho and their outstanding defense must play well both halves
I'm not playing Indy. I'm not playing either side for this game. I was just playing devil's advocate. But you're making a strong case for the Ravens, you've almost got me sold. I have a feeling that flaco will need to produce in this game and I'm not sure if that is going to happen.
Indy has only played in spurts. They haven't put together a complete game yet. I don't know what it is, if it's the injuries or what, but this team has yet to come together and I'm not sure if they really will. They could easily be 0-4 right now. As a fan, I'm just not sure what to think. But Peyton is still running the show, so you just can't count this team out.
SBR Founder Join Date: 10/6/2005
If you put a gun to my head I would take Balt. and the points! I'm from Indy and a huge Colts fan but I can't see ANYONE lining up to push this spread higher? Not sure what the numbers are but I think the Colts have beaten Balt 6 in a row! The Ravens hear so much about the so-called Baltimore/Indy rivalry from the Balt. fans(Indy fans could care less?) that I think their players get to revved up! Flacco is an improvement over Boller but their still not explosive by any means! I think 3-4 pts is about right...maybe the Ravens win by a fg? I sucked out on the Colts -3 vs Houston...I usually don't bet the Colts and probably won't touch them again this year! Anthony Gonzalez went out w/a head injury last week...Marvin has slowed down and Gonzo is much needed! If you're playing this game you need to see what his status is this weekend!
I would by Indy to 3 points and take that, Indy knows they cant keep fkning around if they want to make the playoffs and I say the home crowd noise gets to the young rookie.
This game is more about the rookie than it is about Manning. Colts cover!
Who has a better defense than Baltimore and why? More fuel for the Baltimore fire: while both teams have been above average at pass protection, Baltimore has been good at getting to the passer while Indy has been pretty bad.
If we focus on the running game, Baltimore has been extremely good on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they are excellent up the middle and through the guards but only average outside the tackles. Indy, on the other hand, get absolutely gashed every which way the opposing team chooses to run. On offense, Baltimore runs best up the middle and to the left side. Indianapolis is most successful running up the middle and around the tackles, and while outside the tackles is where Baltimore struggles most, it is where Indy runs the least (despite their great success). Right tackle runs in particular, where Indy has done its best, are probably subject to a sample size problem as they make up only 4% of the total rushes. Will focus on the passing games in a bit; the injuries for Baltimore make it a little harder.
Don't forget Freeney and Gonzalez, two very important players, are both questionable.
took a quick look at mannings splits vs balt and at home and they seem a bit better than his avg
but again this isnt the same indy team it used to be
After looking over Baltimore's passing defense splits I think Gonzalez's status in this game will have a lot to do with any offensive success the Colts might have. McAllister, Rolle, and Washington were the top trio against opposing number one and two wide receivers. I say trio because Rolle started the first two games and Washington the latter two.
But Ravens cornerbacks were among the worst against other wide receivers. Now the cornerbacks who struggled against wide receivers not good enough to be the number one or two option (see: Frank Walker, Corey Ivy, and Derrick Martin) will be asked to step up their game. Rolle versus Wayne will be a great matchup and while Gonzalez isn't having the year I expected I suspect he would eat Walker alive.
Gonzalez left the game versus Houston with a concussion so I don't expect him to play because Indianapolis usually holds players out at least one week before letting them play. As for tight end, Clark had a great game versus Houston but they are very weak against tight ends; Baltimore (see: Ray Lewis) excels at defending tight ends. And while the Ravens have been a bit below average against running backs, Addai has been a non-factor in the passing game.
PLAYOFFS?! PlAyOfFs?! Are you kidding me? Playoffs?!
I think the Colts need to think about simply winning a single home game here. They are 0-2 in this new stadium, think about that trend. They are 2 1/2 games behind the Titans already. The Colts haven't even really gotten into the meat of their schedule yet. As a Colts fan, I'm just hoping to be respectable this year. I've already conceded that this year the playoffs might simply not happen. The AFC is way too brutal, the AFC South is way too brutal, 10-6 will not make it this year. The Colts need to start winning games before they even dream of the playoffs this year. Stealing one against the Vikings, then getting a gift wrapped win against the Texans are not real wins as far as handicapping the Colts, IMHO. Maybe I'm being too hard on my team.
Regarding Gonzalez, that might push me over the top to taking the Ravens. Sheesh. I promised myself I'd lay off this game. I probably still will in the end, but if the news about Gonzalez is bad, the writing is on the wall to take the Ravens. I think I'm staying away no matter what, though. My gut seems to be telling me that the Ravens will outplay the Colts up and down the field, but the Colts will steal yet another one similar to their other two wins this year.
SBR Founder Join Date: 10/6/2005
Yea, injury wise, things don't look too good for Indy. Gonzalez, Freeney, Hayden (their starting CB), Sanders and Marlin Jackson (their other CB) are all probably not going to play Sunday! Which really blows because I'm actually leaving tomorrow to travel to Indy to see this game and would like to see Indy win. But this news is not very encouraging!
I take back what I said about Gonzalez being important. He would be, but it's looking more and more like he won't play from what I'm reading; the Colts are strict about concussion injuries. So it will be up to Marvin Harrison, who has really struggled this year, to take advantage of the CB matchup he gets. If Harrison forces the Ravens to pay more attention to him than just a DB then that will help the Colts out immensely on offense.
I'm not big on Harrison. He just hasn't shown his old HOF self this year. Age catches everyone eventually. He is symbolic of what seems to be happening to the team so far this year. The big stars are getting nicked and old, the young guys just don't seem to be stepping up enough.
I'm almost ready to lock in on the Ravens with the points. Even if Indy can pull out another miracle win after getting dominated all game, it'll probably be a late FG in overtime or something. The Ravens D always plays Indy tough & tight, so it'll be low scoring, something like 24-21 with Viniateri kicking 8 FGs. Haha.
SBR Founder Join Date: 10/6/2005
Since this game is at Indianapolis, I can see Indy -3 not -4and will probably see the line move to 2-. If that happens, I might consider Indy.
First score not a TD looks like a good proposition for this game. Baltimore's offense has struggled to produce yards and touchdowns. Indianapolis' offense has done well moving the ball and taking advantage of red zone opportunities. Baltimore's defense, however, has been the best at limiting yards and touchdowns and great at forcing punts. The Colts' defense has been the epitome of 'bend don't break,' struggling to limit yards and force punts but successful in holding opposing offenses to field goals
Definitely buy Indy at -2'.
I wish the line hadn't shot down to Ravens +4, I was almost ready to buy Ravens +4 1/2, then poof the line moved. Slippery devil. I guess Ravens were at +6 1/2 to open, I wish I'd have seen that, I'd have snapped that off instantly.
SBR Founder Join Date: 10/6/2005
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