new to the forum, my apologies if you ve had tons of questions like this. here goes: i will win $948 if kentucky beats ohio st in final. i will win $395 if ohio st beats kentucky in final. all other outcomes are meaningless. i want to guarantee myself some money but also try to exploit chance for middle. i am going to bet $200 on kansas +2.5 and hope ohio st. wins but does not cover. what i am not sure about is if i should bet ohio st. plus point against kentucky if kansas does not cover against ohio st. because if kentucky then covers i would cost myself $440.....forgot to mention, only betting kansas if kentucky beats ohio st., if louisville wins, i'm doing nothing. this involves the chances of kentucky beating ohio st but not covering. assuming a spread of say 5 what % of the time kentucky win but not cover? which is the better course to take: bet ohio st plus points vs kentucky only if ohio st beats kansas without a cover.....or: bet ohio st. plus points against kentucky even if i lose first bet? hitting both middles would result in a return of $1348. losing both middles would result in return of $508. which is the better play? sorry if i'm confusing, but i don't know which is best? any help would be much appreciated.