View New Posts
12
  1. 12-22-11 11:39 PM #36
    warriorfan707
    SBR Poster of the Milennium
    warriorfan707's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-29-08
    Posts: 14,557
    SBR Points: 12
    Message Me

    Default

    [QUOTE=mebaran;12892731

    I say a team has a 56% chance to win an event. This is based on a framework I have deemed statistically significant. Step 1 complete.

    [/QUOTE]

    This is the only problem. How do you come up with 56%? Its just a guess.

    From an alternative perspective though I can see how theoretically it could possibly work long run but you would have to make sure you stay consistent with your formula. Any variation on your estimates could be disastrous using Kelly.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 12-22-11 11:51 PM #37
    mebaran
    Los Bulls
    mebaran's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-16-09
    Posts: 1,446
    SBR Points: 1294
    Message Me

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post

    This is the only problem. How do you come up with 56%? Its just a guess.

    From an alternative perspective though I can see how theoretically it could possibly work long run but you would have to make sure you stay consistent with your formula. Any variation on your estimates could be disastrous using Kelly.
    !!! This is exactly why many proponents of Kelly recommend using fractional Kelly so that any errors in calculation don't cost you growth.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 12-23-11 03:42 AM #38
    FourLengthsClear
    King of the Idiots
    FourLengthsClear's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-29-10
    Posts: 3,829
    SBR Points: 657
    Message Me

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    The main issue is the variables in the equation are purely speculatory.
    The variables in the Kelly equations are well proven and not just in sports betting. The only sensible criticism of Kelly is what was discussed earlier, the inability to accurately determine edge per wager.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
    1500pts

    SBR WORLD
    POKER CUP     2nd Place 2012

    CHARITY DONOR
    11/30/2011 $25 donation

  4. 12-23-11 03:46 AM #39
    FourLengthsClear
    King of the Idiots
    FourLengthsClear's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-29-10
    Posts: 3,829
    SBR Points: 657
    Message Me

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    How do you "compare your prediction of the game with the markets"????
    The closing line is the markets' prediction.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
    1500pts

    SBR WORLD
    POKER CUP     2nd Place 2012

    CHARITY DONOR
    11/30/2011 $25 donation

  5. 01-02-12 12:43 AM #40
    JimHadley
    JimHadley's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-11
    Posts: 18
    SBR Points: 42
    Message Me

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by roasthawg View Post
    Simultaneous kelly is done by taking the product of 1-kelly for all simultaneous wagers and then multiplying each kelly amount by that product. So if I have two simultaneous bets, one calling for a full kelly wager of 2.5% and another calling for a 2% wager then I would bet (1-.025)*(1-.02)*2.5% = 2.387% on the first wager and (1-.025)*(1-.02)*2% = 1.91% on the second wager.
    What if you had already placed the first wager at 2.5% of bankroll?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-02-12 12:46 AM #41
    JimHadley
    JimHadley's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-11
    Posts: 18
    SBR Points: 42
    Message Me

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    Kelly betting is horrible.
    What do you recommend?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-14-12 05:47 PM #42
    maxvalue1
    maxvalue1's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 275
    SBR Points: 24
    Message Me

    Default

    if using Kelly.and i believe I have a 55% probability of winning bet..that would be 5.5 % of my bankroll.
    Now my question is ...if i want to use half kelly...do i simply divide 5.5 % by two? ..2.75%
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-14-12 06:31 PM #43
    mebaran
    Los Bulls
    mebaran's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-16-09
    Posts: 1,446
    SBR Points: 1294
    Message Me

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by maxvalue1 View Post
    if using Kelly.and i believe I have a 55% probability of winning bet..that would be 5.5 % of my bankroll.
    Now my question is ...if i want to use half kelly...do i simply divide 5.5 % by two? ..2.75%
    For simplicity's sake, yes. (Kelly calculator says 2.7553%)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
First 12
Top
« Previous Thread | Newbie Forum | Next Thread »