The truth about "Traps"

St. Andrew · 03-14-2008, 05:17 PM

When you fade a "trap", you enter a trap. Play the matchup on the court, not the matchup in the books. If you think a matchup line is too good to be true....POUND IT.

OLGC_Slayer · 03-14-2008, 05:18 PM

Your not talking about Per-doo, are you?

diogee · 03-14-2008, 05:19 PM

I like your style

St. Andrew · 03-14-2008, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLGC_Slayer

Your not talking about Per-doo, are you?

I'm not talking about any particular game. Generically speaking, if someone has thoroughly capped a game and still thinks the line is too good to be true -- and then fades themselves on suspicion of a "trap"-- then Vegas has them right where they want them: PAWNS in the game.

OLGC_Slayer · 03-14-2008, 05:22 PM

Yep. How many times have people second guessed their capping only to miss out on a nice cash in because they thought it was a trick?
I think the book sets the line where they really think it will end up.

awhitejackson · 03-14-2008, 05:27 PM

Thank you...This trap nonsense about every good looking game is getting out of hand around here..

armyoflovers · 03-14-2008, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

When you fade a "trap", you enter a trap. Play the matchup on the court, not the matchup in the books. If you think a matchup line is too good to be true....POUND IT.

Youre a smart man, I couldnt agree more. Stop trying to find a method to the madness and just play the line for what it is....

BigOrangeTitans · 03-14-2008, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by armyoflovers

Youre a smart man, I couldnt agree more. Stop trying to find a method to the madness and just play the line for what it is....

You guys do me a favor. Look up the stats on lines that move WITH the public money like this purdue game. Tell me how the record is for those that take the "too good to be true" line and the other side. Go on, look it up, i aint givin you the number, then post it and tell me why i should bet on purdue. Although purdue is a superior team, they are at a coaching disadvantage and already have a spot in the dance sewed up. As for Illinois, this is their only shot. They gotta win out. Kinda reminds me of a certain Syracuse team that got snubbed. Anyways, thats an angle if your on illinois, but fuk angles, follow the numbers.

St. Andrew · 03-14-2008, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans

You guys do me a favor. Look up the stats on lines that move WITH the public money like this purdue game. Tell me how the record is for those that take the "too good to be true" line and the other side. Go on, look it up, i aint givin you the number, then post it and tell me why i should bet on purdue. Although purdue is a superior team, they are at a coaching disadvantage and already have a spot in the dance sewed up. As for Illinois, this is their only shot. They gotta win out. Kinda reminds me of a certain Syracuse team that got snubbed. Anyways, thats an angle if your on illinois, but fuk angles, follow the numbers.

I'm not telling anyone to bet on Purdue. In fact, I have Purdue winning by only 3 points. But I'm not betting the game. My original post pertained to my overall philosophy on "traps." If you think Purdue won't cover, then good! Take Illinois (as I would do if I were betting this game).

Cee · 03-14-2008, 05:44 PM

i would have been outta plays if i pounded em. Like cuse , fl , uconn. Keeps me level thinkin about "traps" but that's just me

Arnold · 03-14-2008, 05:57 PM

I don't believe in traps. There is no reason to believe in them anyway. A line is set not based on some clown tricks, but based on performances of both teams.

billmunny · 03-14-2008, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arnold

I don't believe in traps. There is no reason to believe in them anyway. A line is set not based on some clown tricks, but based on performances of both teams.

I would think that the lines would be set to try to limit risk and lead to profit for the books...

BigOrangeTitans · 03-14-2008, 06:07 PM

Just so you know, let me show you some stuff just from today. I love bein right.
Vandy 73% public
Ark 27%
Opened -1 vandy. Closed -1 Ark.
Vandy being heavily favored by the public is given two points even though theres plenty of action on that side of things. Thus the book coaxes more wagers on Vandy, and then BOOM
Ark wins.
This happened with quite a few games, check it out.
Also, i have yet to see anyone in this thread disprove this with fact/numbers.

regularguy · 03-14-2008, 06:14 PM

I don't really believe in traps either.

But I do tend to agree with BOT's point. I pay attention when the line is moving with, instead of against, a bet made by the vast majority of players (like Purdue today). That suggests to me that the big money is going against the majority of the bettors. I am far more comfortable with a popular bet when the line is moving to discourage it (like Utah State today). That tells me that the big money is following the majority of the bettors, and the books are moving to get some on the other side. (The key thing to notice is that, as far as I can tell, on sites like thespread.com, we get information only on the number of bets, not on the amount of money, going to each side.)

All that said, I bet however I think I might win.

(By the way, for full disclosure, I'm on Purdue today (-4.5) with a small play.)

thegreatdiatchi · 03-14-2008, 06:21 PM

From a gambler's standpoint i think the ability to see through traps is highly related to a gambler's ability to distinguish between statistical/matchup factors and assumed factors. This may not true for all gamblers but I find that I made my worst bets when I relied mostly on assumed factors.

BigOrangeTitans · 03-14-2008, 06:24 PM

Yesterday this trend occurred with
Boise st
USC
Baylor, who many got killed on
Minnesota
Maryland

ALL heavy public plays with ilne movement in the wrong direction did not cash ATS yesterday. 2 5pt+ faves lost SU.

There, NOW TELL ME THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TRAP