Big Ten thread 2/11-2/17

diogee · 02-12-2008, 01:58 AM

#9 Michigan St (20-3) @ #23 Purdue (19-5)

On Tuesday the Michigan State Spartans travel to Purdue to play the Purdue Boilermakers. The Boilermakers are 13-1 at home this year with wins over Wisconsin and Louisville. Their only loss at home came to Wofford, a game in which they were favored by 17 points. The Boilermakers are going for their first 10 game winning streak since the 95-96 season. Coincidently their last loss came at Michigan ST 78-75 on January 8th. Purdue is 5-6 ATS at home and 2-0 ATS at home when favored by 3 points or less and has covered in 9 of their last 10 games overall. Purdue is atop the Big Ten standings at 10-1 with the sole loss to Mich St.

Michigan State is currently 2nd in the Big Ten standings at 8-2 and looking to move up with a win at Purdue. The Spartans are 3-2 on the road this year. Their first road loss was at Iowa by 7, a game which they were favored by 10. They shot a season low 30.8% and scored a season low 36 points while turning the ball over 18 times. Their last road game was on Feb 2nd, a game in which they were favored by 9 points and lost to Penn St. by 9 points while allowing Penn St to shoot 48.8%.

The shooters
Purdue has 3 players that average double digit scoring per game led by Etwaun Moore who averages 11.2 ppg. Robbie Hummel is 2nd on the team at 10.9 and Keaton Grant is 3rd at 10.7. They also have players that average 8.9, 7.1, and 7.0 ppg. Michigan State is led in scoring by Raymar Morgan who averages 15.9 ppg. Drew Neitzel is 2nd on the team in scoring with 14 ppg with Kalin Lucus 3rd at 9.8 ppg. Garon Suton averages 8.7 ppg along with 2 other players that average 6 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
Michigan State has the edge in ppg 73.8 compared to 68.8 by Purdue. Michigan State shoots a very good 48.9% as compared to 42.7% by Purdue along with a slight edge at the charity stripe. Purdue is slightly better from downtown 36.3% to 35.1%. Michigan State has put up 70 points or more 16 times this year while Purdue has accomplished it 11 times. Michigan State has turned the ball over 15 times or more 12 times this year with one of those being against Purdue, a game in which they turned the ball over 17 times. Purdue has turned the ball over 15 or more times in just 8 games with a season low 7 turnovers the last time these 2 met.

Defensive Statistics
Purdue allows 61 ppg and 43.1% from the field while Michigan State allows 62.4 ppg and 39% from the field. Michigan State averages 35 rebounds per game while holding opponents to 26.5. Purdue averages 29.5 rebounds per game while allowing 29 rebounds by opposing teams.

Purdue's 4th leading scorer Scott Martin is listed as questionable. Martin averages 8.9ppg

The line currently has Purdue favored by 2. Overall I lean towards Michigan State which should be able to win a close one as long as they take care of the ball. They have already proved that they can beat Purdue while being careless with the ball. This is a huge Big Ten game for both of these teams. Both teams will play a fast paced game with everyone playing all out for the entire game. I will be more interested in the total. I will play the over on anything 142 or less.

It is late and this is my first write-up. Please give suggestion on what I can do to improve my write-ups. Thank you and good luck.

diogee · 02-12-2008, 02:11 AM

I'm toasted for the day and will post a write-up on Illinois at Minn sometime around 2 ET...Leaning heavily towards Minn -4 so far.

WestsidePete · 02-12-2008, 02:38 AM

a little more on Michigan St...I really like them to come thru vs Purdue

The Spartans play road games at Purdue and Indiana, and the mindset is better following a 70-55 win over Northwestern Feb. 9 that raised Michigan State's record to 20-3 overall and 8-2 in the Big Ten. Though the win was against one of the conference's bottom feeders, it came after a horrendous loss at lowly Penn State.

Michigan State called a team meeting once it got home to East Lansing from the debacle in State College. That seemed to clear the air.

"It was a basketball meeting, but it was also more off-the-court stuff because, as you go through a season, there are lot of different things that go on [other than] basketball," Michigan State senior guard Travis Walton said. "Sometimes when you don't talk about it, [those issues] linger on the court.

"We felt we needed that because we're going into a big stretch at arguably some of the toughest places to play in the nation. We need to be tight knit."

Notes, Quotes
• Michigan State has had an assist on an amazing 78.3 percent of its field goals in the last four games. In all, the Spartans have assists on 69 percent of their field goals this season.

• Michigan State secured its ninth winning season in the last 11 years when it beat Northwestern Feb. 9.

Quote To Note: "It's a huge stretch. For us to stay positive and get a good seeding, we need to win these games." -- forward Raymar Morgan on consecutive road games at Purdue and Indiana that could determine Michigan State's Big Ten title hopes.

Strategy And Personnel
F Marquise Gray has regained playing time in recent weeks after seeing his minutes cut in mid-January. Gray has average 12 minutes in the last three games. He leads Michigan State with 22 dunks this season.

Player Rotation: Usual Starters -- F Raymar Morgan, F Goran Suton, C Drew Naymick, G Drew Neitzel, G Travis Walton. Key Subs -- G Kalin Lucas, G Chris Allen, F Marquise Gray.

ROSTER REPORT

• G Drew Neitzel is averaging 31.2 minutes a game, down 4.5 from last season. Neitzel's 35.7 average last season was the most by a Michigan State player since 1990-1991, but the Spartans have more backcourt depth this season with G Kalin Lucas and G Chris Allen, both freshmen.

• F Raymar Morgan is one of 30 finalists for the John R. Wooden, presented annually since 1976 to the nation's best player by the Los Angeles Athletic Club.

• C Drew Naymick had a career-high six blocked shots in the Feb. 9 win over Northwestern, extending his school career record to 115.

Alry45 · 02-12-2008, 04:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diogee

I'm toasted for the day and will post a write-up on Illinois at Minn sometime around 2 ET...Leaning heavily towards Minn -4 so far.

You and me both. I like Minnesota alot also, lookin forward to your write up.

mofome · 02-12-2008, 04:15 AM

good lord, nice thread so far.

Iwinyourmoney · 02-12-2008, 05:05 AM

Good stuff!

Louisvillekid1 · 02-12-2008, 11:53 AM

Great write up, now these threads are starting to catch on!!! Im really liking Mich St. to win this game.

WestsidePete · 02-12-2008, 12:19 PM

Mich St +1.5

Louisvillekid1 · 02-12-2008, 12:34 PM

Im on Mich St +100 ML

diogee · 02-12-2008, 01:31 PM

Illinois (10-14) @ Minnesota (15-7)

The other Big Ten match-up today has the Illinois Fighting Illini traveling to Minnesota to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers a match-up in with the Illini have won 10 straight. The Golden Gophers are currently 9-3 at home this year. Their 3 loses have come to: Indiana 65-60, Mich St 78-73, and Wisconsin 63-47. They bounced back from the Wisconsin loss by beating Iowa 63-50, a game in which they were favored by 9. The Fighting Illini are 1-6 on the road this year with their lone win coming at Hawaii 79-77 in their 2nd game of the year. Since then they have lost by an average of 7.5 ppg. Minnesota is 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Illini are 2-8. The Golden Gophers are 7-1 ATS and 8-0 straight up this year when they are favored. The Illini are 4-5 ATS and 1-8 straight up when they are the underdog.

Minnesota is 5-5 and Illinois is 2-9 in conference play. Minnesota has shot below 40% 6 times this season with 2 coming at home with. Illinois has also shot below 40% 6 times this year with 3 coming on the road included 30% in their last game at Michigan St.

The Shooters
The Golden Gophers have 3 players that average double digit scoring per game led by Dan Coleman with 13.5 ppg. Lawrence McKenzie is 2nd with 11.2 ppg and Spencer Tollackson rounds out the top 3 with 10.9 ppg. Blake Hoffarber is just outside of the double digit mark at 9.2 ppg. They also have players that average 7.5 and 7.3 ppg. The Illini also have 3 players who average double digit scoring per game led by Shaun Pruitt at 12.7 ppg. Brian Randle and Trent Meacham both average 10.2 ppg. The Illini also have 2 players that average 7.6 ppg.

Offensive Statistics
Minnesota has the edge in ppg 72.9 compared to the 65.7 ppg by Illinois. Minn averages 46.2% from the field and 37.7% from beyond the arc while Illinois hits 43.3% from the field and a mere 30.4% from long range. Minnesota is also the better team from the line even though they average 67.2%. Illinois is terrible from the line at 59.5%. Minnesota has put up at least 70 points 13 times this year with 8 of them coming at home. Illinois accomplishing the same feat 9 times with the only time on the road being their 2nd game of the year at Hawaii. Minnesota has turned the ball of 15 or more times in 10 games while Illinois has done it 8 times.

Defensive Statistics
Both teams allow 62 and change ppg. Minnesota Allows 60 ppg at home while Illinois allows 65.4 ppg on the road. So far this year the opposition averages 42.8% from the field and 33.7% from downtown when facing Minnesota. The opposition averages 39.9% from the field and 31.8% from downtown when facing Illinois. Illinois has the slight edge in rebounding while averages 34.2 rpg and holding their opponents to 29.3 rpg. The Illini are led in rebounds by Shaun Pruitt 7.6 rpg and Brian Randle 5.8 rpg. Minnesota averages 30.9 rpg while their opponents average 29.1 rpg. The Golden Gophers are led in rebounds by Dan Coleman at 6.5 rpg and Damian Johnson 4.4 rpg.

The current line has Minnesota favored by 4.5 and a total of 128. Illinois has won the last 10 meetings between these two teams, a streak that I am sure the Gophers want to break. The Illini will have their hands full trying to guard this Golden Gophers team that can get hot from beyond the arc.

My pick: Minn -4.5 as well as in a ML parlay. I am also leaning towards the over but probably won't end up playing it.

Jonathan Williams is questionable with the flu...he averages 11.9 minutes, 3.1 points, and 1.8 rebounds per game.

Had to hurry through this one...running late for physical therapy.

diogee · 02-12-2008, 01:32 PM

Thanks for the responses.

Louisvillekid1 · 02-12-2008, 01:55 PM

Another Great Write up!

McRich · 02-12-2008, 05:25 PM

I am on Purdue even though I am a Spartan fan. Michigan State has not been a good Big Ten road team in recent years. They have already lost straight up against Iowa and Penn State on the road. Purdue is much better than both of these teams. MSU continues to have turnover trouble and they can't stop the three. Neitzel and Morgan are having up and down games.

Purdue is one of the hottest teams in the land right now. This is one of the biggest home games in years for the Boilermakers. This looks like a four point victory by Purdue to me.

My 2008 Big Ten basketball ATS record in 2008 is 22-10.