Top 25 Upset Betting Formula

mmarino · 01-17-2008, 05:18 PM

Any of you guys follow this formula over at EOG? I'll post the link and below is the formula. There are a few games tonight which I hope to get a discussion going on.

http://forums.eog.com/college-basket...ing-67921.html

Bet any team not in the top 25 that is favored over a team that is in the top 25. (5 units)

Bet any team in the top 25 that is ranked lower but they are a favorite over a higher ranked team. (3 1/2 units). Example say a #21 team favored over a #8 team.

Bet any team that is in the top 25 and they are a dog to a team ranked higher than them. (2 1/2 units) Example #21 team as a dog to the #8 team

Tonight features Cal for 5 units and Louisville for 2.5 units. I'm not sure yet if I'm going to play louisville, but the stats for Cal tonight look unbelievable.

4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.

I think I may be laying a big play on Cal tonight. What are you guys' thoughts on this game?

mmarino · 01-17-2008, 05:19 PM

Oh yea, and also Vandy is a play tonight against Tennessee. Not sure how I feel about this game at +10.5, but I'm going to put Vandy into a teaser.

astro61200 · 01-17-2008, 05:21 PM

It's not really a formula

It's a system, but yes I've used this awhile

Also its good to bet a team where the majority of the public is on them, and the line moves the wrong way, for instance it opens at Team A -5

74% of the bets are coming in on Team B +5, yet the line moves to Team B +6 or better

mmarino · 01-17-2008, 05:22 PM

Yea, there are a bunch of games tonight where the public is 70%+ on.

astro61200 · 01-17-2008, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mmarino

Yea, there are a bunch of games tonight where the public is 70%+ on.

Right but is the line moving the wrong way? Thats the question... hell the majority of the public was on Missouri State the other day, and they tore up whoever they played, I forgot

mmarino · 01-17-2008, 05:28 PM

I wait until closer to game time to check the line movement.

teazeman · 01-17-2008, 05:31 PM

didn't check the link but this thought process has been around for a long time, you may want to see some of Cannon's post as he follows this rather closely.

mmarino · 01-17-2008, 05:32 PM

Yea I know, what are you guys thoughts on Cal tonight?

Louisvillekid1 · 01-17-2008, 05:33 PM

Louisville will roll tonight!