[tevari]

i had butler -11 as one of my top plays for monday, and i almost never lay that amount of points, what do you like about loyala tonight? semi-tough at home, or is 11 too generous for butler? thanks

[bigdog3580]

If you go by Sagarin rankings, Butler should win by 16 or so. Don't know who would take the points with Loyola-Chicago, but hey!

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0708.htm

[regularguy]

Tough game for me to cap.

Loyola is 0-5 at home ATS. I don't think they are very good. They got beat by 17 at home by Bradley -- that may be the best indicator of what might happen when Butler comes to town.

BUT. I don't like the fact that Butler's last three wins at Loyola have been in overtime. Loyola plays Butler tough at home.

I think I sit this one out though.

[Razz]

First off, it's not a big play for me. But I do feel like this line should be in single digits. As regularguy alluded, this is historically a very competitive series. I really like Loyola's coach Whitesell, and he always saves his best for Butler. Since Whitesell came to Loyola, Butler has been the premier team in the Horizon. Despite that, they haven't even come close to winning by double digits at Loyola. Five of the eleven meetings have gone to OT, and the only double digit win came at Butler.

I'll gladly admit that this isn't the best edition of the Ramblers. But I'm not convinced this is a great Butler team either. I'm not even sure Butler is the best team in the Horizon (Valpo has looked better to me), but they continue to draw these kind of lines. I beat them with Detroit and Wright State, lost a heartbreaker with SIU, and beat them again with Valpo.

And maybe that's the tale of how Butler will fare ATS this season. You don't bet against them when the line is pk, because they generally find a way to win. You bet against them when you're catching an inflated number, because they don't have a knack for blowing teams out.

The Bulldogs are a good team, maybe very good, but they aren't a great offensive team, and it's hard to beat a competent team by 11 points when you don't score a lot.

[tevari]

Works for me, good luck.

[Razz]

Oddsmakers had that one pegged pretty good, it hit right on the total as well. The box score tells me we should have covered, but I can't be too upset with a 3-0 run to get the push at the end. I am upset I didn't get the 11.5 or 12, but that's on me.

[tevari]

read your write up and made a small 2 teamer, still ended up with a profit, cheers Razz

Wager Type: Parlay (2 team)
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: $150.73 / $311.43 (USD) Accepted 1/7/2008 8:45 AM - EST
Amount Paid: 242.07999999999998


Item #1
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: College Football / Game
Line:
LSU 1/7/2008 8:00 PM - (EST)
-165
* Game Notes:
(FOX) BCS Championship Game @ Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA

Item #2
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Cancelled
Sport / Period: NCAA Basketball / Game
Line:
Loyola Chicago 1/7/2008 8:00:01 PM - (EST)
+11 -110