[dwest718]

I'm kind of a noob at capping NCAA basketball. But I love watching the game and I love betting on sports so it seems like it might work out

My bankroll is very small. Therefore... my units are very small. However, no matter the size of my roll, my plays will be the same. In general, all my plays will be single picks. I've been burned by parlays and teasers enough to know that they are really not worth it. If I like several lines a lot, I may add them into a small teaser that pays out better.

Would really appreciate any feedback on my picks.

So, on that note ... picks tonight.


1.5 units Wisc-GB -1
1 unit Ill-Chic. -5 (-120)
1 unit Tenn Tech +1
1 unit Jax St. +11
0.5 unit Butler -11.5

ADDED:
1 unit Rider +5 (-125)
0.5 unit Towson St. +13

Still leaning on Bowling Green and waiting to see if I can get a better line. Most likely 1 unit on Bowling Green +2.

And I thought I wasn't going to but I made a little teaser as well. Couldn't resist teasing some totals tonight:
1.5 units (Butler -1.5 + UConn -5.5 + Wisc-GB U145 + Towson St. U150)

0-0 YTD.
+0.00 units

[babytyger]

Wis GB +2 **
Tenn Tech +1 *

[dwest718]

Bought 1/2 pt and Added:

0.5 unit Northeastern +16

Line dropping all day means books want money on UConn. Northeastern coming off a bad game against James Madison means value here against a still young UConn team.

[dwest718]

Leaving for dinner so went ahead and Added:

1 unit Bowling Green +2

Rider was looking great and then Niagara shot the lights out to finish the 1st half. Insane game of runs so far.

Very close to betting HT lines on the Jax. St. game but decided not to. Would've bet Jax. St. +6.5 and O65 (even).


Bets not looking great so far tonight but plenty of time left so just going to have to wait and see...

[dwest718]

So... after an interesting day during which I questioned how good the MAAC is and how bad the OVC is, my bets today ended up alright...

1.5 units Wisc-GB -1
1.5 units [Teaser]

1 unit Ill-Chic. -5 (-120)
1 unit Tenn Tech +1
1 unit Jax St. +11
1 unit Bowling Green +2
1 unit Rider +5 (-125)

0.5 unit Towson St. +13
0.5 unit Butler -11.5
0.5 unit Northeastern +16


6-4-0 YTD
+2.68 units

2.0 unit plays: 0-0
1.5 unit plays: 2-0
1.0 unit plays: 3-2
0.5 unit plays: 1-2

[dwest718]

Tiny card for tomorrow but leans abound.

UC Davis, Mahattan, Loyola (MD), and Siena.

Probably will only bet Loyola (MD) and Siena though. Two experienced teams on the road who like to cover on the road versus two teams that have done nothing all season. Like Manhattan but too much money on them to make them a bet I want to make... Oregon State vs. UC Davis just makes me

Will research more and post my picks later on in the day.

[Cougar Bait]

All over Siena -2.5. Loyola MD falls into some good trends (20-5 in road games over the past 3 yrs. and 14-2 after a non-conference game in the past 3 years). Also since 1997, 10-1 in December and 10-3 after scoring 60 points or less. Iona on the other hand in the past 3 years is 6-19 after a non-conference game and 1-6 when playing after 5 or 6 days rest. Iona has also been averaging 24 turnovers a game the last 3 games (against sub-par opponents). But Loyola is coming off a terrible loss where the team shot 36.4% from the floor. Trends point to Loyola MD in this one, despite last Saturday's poor showing.

[dwest718]

Originally Posted by Bet The House

All over Siena -2.5. Loyola MD falls into some good trends (20-5 in road games over the past 3 yrs. and 14-2 after a non-conference game in the past 3 years). Also since 1997, 10-1 in December and 10-3 after scoring 60 points or less. Iona on the other hand in the past 3 years is 6-19 after a non-conference game and 1-6 when playing after 5 or 6 days rest. Iona has also been averaging 24 turnovers a game the last 3 games (against sub-par opponents). But Loyola is coming off a terrible loss where the team shot 36.4% from the floor. Trends point to Loyola MD in this one, despite last Saturday's poor showing.

Thanks for the input Bet the House.

A little worried about the line moving a bunch for the Siena game...

The trends point to Loyola (MD) and both teams matchup fairly evenly but Iona's 2nd leading rebounder is out for the game and Loyola (MD) has a much more experienced team.

[Cougar Bait]

I'd like to hear why you like Manhattan.

[dwest718]

Originally Posted by Bet The House

I'd like to hear why you like Manhattan.

... To tell you the truth, I'm not sure what I saw.

No size advantage. No real experience advantage.

Manhattan losses vs. Hofstra, E. Michigan, and Fordham not bad losses but not good either.

2 reasons I would bet St. Peter's:
1) Definitely the better shooting team... actually shoot better on the road. Mahattan bad at FTs meaning hard for them to cover at the end of the game if it's close.
2) St. Peter's has a forward (Sowell) who is bigger (6'7, 250)than anyone Manhattan plays more than 10 minutes a game. He has 5 double doubles in 7 games and has played better against better teams.

However, I don't like St. Peter's for 2 big reasons:
1) Very bad on the road (0-3 SU, 1-0 ATS) w/ cover against a Seton Hall team that dominated them most of the game.
2) Lost to Manhattan by 7 points at home last year with a similar matchup and Sowell having an average to above average game.

If I was forced to make a pick... I'd actually take St. Peter's +6.5 but I won't even touch the game until it moves more.

I love betting on the dog when more than 85% of the money is on the favorite. As I said... might actually make St. Peter's a 0.5 unit play later today. Thanks for making me look a bit more at the game

Plays will probably be:
1.5 units Siena -2.5
1 unit Loyola (MD) -3.5
0.5 units UC Riverside ML

This depends on lines available and if the ML is available on Bodog.

[Cougar Bait]

I've found that keeping the unit size the same on all bets tends to make me more money than putting all my eggs in one basket. For example, if Siena wins, then great, but if they don't cover then you have to win the other two games just to come out even. Anyway, that's what has worked for me recently. I had a great week last week until I went heavy on one game on Friday. I ended up 7-5 ATS and almost even money. I should have been up 2 units. I guess what I'm saying is if you feel really strong about one play, it might work out better if you just play that one. That being said, I like the card so far. GL!

[dwest718]

Plays tonight. Got on these lines a little early...

1.5 units Siena -3.5 (-105)
1 unit Loyola (MD) -3

[dwest718]

Wanted to play Portland tonight but pussed out.

Got on UC Davis after seeing the line movement today. It's been moving on UC Davis and Oregon St. is the money favorite by about 70-30. Fade play if you will

So:
0.5 units UC Davis +2

[dwest718]

Not too bad today. Didn't wake up in time to put a 0.5 unit on St. Peter's.

1.5 units Siena -3.5 (-105)
1 unit Loyola (MD) -3
0.5 units UC Davis +2

1-2 for the day

7-6 YTD
+2.61 units

2.0 unit plays: 0-0 +0.00 units
1.5 unit plays: 3-0 +4.03 units
1.0 unit plays: 3-3 -0.37 units
0.5 unit plays: 1-3 -1.05 units

[hello]

Marq +4
Wash +4

[dwest718]

Had finals this morning so little time to cap games last night.

1 play already. Working on games chronologically so I'll have to take into account if lines move in late games.

Early play:
1.5 units Arizona +2

[dwest718]

Another play... Pruitt has huge 1st half and Randle plays well. Bayless and Budinger have done negative. Arizona 9 TOs and shooting 31%... And Arizona only down by 7?


1 unit Arizona 2H -1.5


Leans on St. Mary's and W. Michigan early this afternoon. Working on 4pm and later games. Will post plays as soon as they are made.

[dwest718]

Another afternoon play:
1 unit E. Michigan -9

Northwestern is just awful. E. Michigan a very solid team at home.

Nic Wise is trying to save Arizona (and my) ass. Let's go ZONA!

[dwest718]

to Hill and Wise today. Hell yeah Zona.


Another mid afternoon play:
1 unit St. Mary's -4


Leaning on Valparaiso this afternoon as well but no other plays yet. Will start capping the 6pm games and later immediately.

[dwest718]

1 unit Valparaiso -3


Drexel, Seton Hall, and Duquesne are all leans tonight... looking at other games too. Big card means several plays to be confident in.

Get back to you later tonight with some more plays

[dwest718]

1.5 units N. Colorado -2

Beat 'em by 16 earlier this season and playing better basketball.

Still leaning Drexel, Seton Hall, Duquesne as well as Miami. Capping games and finding others as well...

Will post as I get in.

[dwest718]

Added plays tonight:
1 unit Miami (FL) -12
0.5 unit Drexel +3 (-120)
0.5 unit W. Kentucky -5.5
0.5 unit Tenn.-Martin -8
0.5 unit Rider -7 (-120)


Leaning on Duquesne and Seton Hall. Capping late games now and will post my final picks before 8pm. Let's keep this going guys

[dwest718]

1 unit Duquesne +14

[dwest718]

And my last plays for the night:
1.5 units Seton Hall +3
1 unit Tennessee St. -2
0.5 units Austin Peay Pick
0.5 units Wisc.-Milwaukee +6 (-120)


Been a good day so far... let's hope I don't fall off tonight.

[dwest718]

Pretty good day all in all yesterday. Made a few too many plays last night and had OT screw me over a couple times but overall came out up some

Smaller card tonight (obviously) but have a few plays:
1 unit Manhattan +3
0.5 unit Niagara +1


Will check out afternoon games before they start and post any plays.

[Cougar Bait]

I thought about taking Manhattan, but instead went with BC +.6 GL with your plays today. Limiting myself to one play a day until I turn it around. YTD 13-10...

[dwest718]

So... great start to the day Did anyone watch the game? Did Loyola play well or did Manhattan play awful or a combination of both?

Added:
0.5 unit Siena -13


Go Saints

Leaning Nova, BC, and N. Arizona tonight. Checkin out the other games.

[dwest718]

OT screws me over again. 0-2 today and soon to be 0-3.

2 more plays for tonight:
1 unit Virginia Tech -8
0.5 unit Villanova -3

Decided against playing Maryland-BC and N. Arizona-Cal Poly.


Thinking about Hornets -7.5 tonight... Don't play NBA that often but it's a possibility.

[EaglesPhan36]

Originally Posted by dwest718

So... great start to the day Did anyone watch the game? Did Loyola play well or did Manhattan play awful or a combination of both?

Manhattan was horrible. They shot something like 28% in the 1st half and were pretty much dead in the water from there. Loyola for their part played solidly.

[dwest718]

Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36

Manhattan was horrible. They shot something like 28% in the 1st half and were pretty much dead in the water from there. Loyola for their part played solidly.

Thanks for the reply EaglesPhan. Any information is helpful.

I tend to bet the CAA, the MAAC, the Horizon, the OVC, and the Big Sky a lot. Did anyone watch the Wright St.-Butler game yesterday? Did Wright St. play very well or did Butler just not play well since Wright St. was at home.

Added plays:
0.5 unit Hornets -7 (-120)
0.5 unit Hornets -7.5

Basically playing a whole unit but didn't bet it all at the same time.

Looking at totals as well.

[Ballin]

Originally Posted by dwest718

Thanks for the reply EaglesPhan. Any information is helpful.

I tend to bet the CAA, the MAAC, the Horizon, the OVC, and the Big Sky a lot. Did anyone watch the Wright St.-Butler game yesterday? Did Wright St. play very well or did Butler just not play well since Wright St. was at home.

Added plays:
Hornets -7 (-120)


Looking at totals as well.

When your best 2 players shoot a combined 4-23, you won't win many games. This was also the 2nd game were 2nd leading scorer (Pete Campbell 14.1 PPG) didn't play because of a knee injury. Without him in the line-up, Butler loses one of their best 3 point shooters. He was shooting 50% from behind the arc and will be sorely missed.

[dwest718]

Last Play:
0.5 unit Nova O145


Leans Providence U and VTech U but didn't play either of them. Have a great night folks

[dwest718]

While I have a bit of free time, I'll post my results from last night and updated YTD results.

1.5 units Arizona +2
1.5 units Seton Hall +3
1.5 units N. Colorado -2

1 unit Valparaiso -3
1 unit E. Michigan -9
1 unit Arizona 2H -1.5
1 unit Tennessee St. -2
1 unit Miami (FL) -12
1 unit Duquesne +14
1 unit St. Mary's -4 (-105)

0.5 unit Drexel +3 (-120)
0.5 unit W. Kentucky -5.5
0.5 unit Tenn.-Martin -8
0.5 unit Rider -7 (-120)
0.5 units Austin Peay Pick
0.5 units Wisc.-Milwaukee +6 (-120)

9-5-2 for the day
+2.22 units

16-11-2 YTD
+4.83 units

1.5 unit plays: 4-1-1 +3.88 units
1.0 unit plays: 7-5-1 +1.28 units
0.5 unit plays: 5-5-0 -0.33 units

[Cougar Bait]

Looks like you had a really good day. Keep that cash flowin.

[dwest718]

1 unit Hornets -7/-7.5
1 unit Manhattan +3
1 unit Virginia Tech -8

0.5 unit Siena -13
0.5 unit Villanova -3 (-105)
0.5 unit Niagara +1
0.5 unit Nova O145 (-105)

3-4 for the day
-1.16 units

19-15-2 YTD
+3.67 units

1.5 unit plays: 4-1-1 +3.88 units
1.0 unit plays: 8-7-1 +0.18 units
0.5 unit plays: 7-7-0 -0.39 units