Ole Miss +5½ at Clemson
Game Time: 3/19/2007 7:00:00 PM
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.touthouse.com
The Mississippi Rebels will at least keep this one inside the numbers if not win outright when they travel to Clemson tonight to face the Tigers in NIT action.
Mississippi has had trouble on the road this season, but that should not matter here against a Clemson team that is struggling.
After starting the season 17-0, the Tigers have gone 5-10 with only one of those five wins coming by more than seven points and three coming by four points or fewer. That seven-point victory came against a supposedly overmatched East Tennessee St., but that was hardly the case. Clemson was outshot from the floor but benefitted from the Buccaneers going 1-13 from behind the arc.
The Rebels are coming off an easy win against Appalachian St. in their NIT opener, and they have been playing well recently with wins in eight of their last 12 games. Despite going just 2-10 on the road, Mississippi is getting outscored by just six points per game thanks to an offense that continues to be strong. The team is averaging 73.3 per game, an 8.1 increase from a year ago, and the highest clip since scoring 77.0 ppg in 1998-99. They scored 80-plus points in four consecutive SEC games this year for the first time since 1976.
Two important stats are in favor of the Rebels, assist/turnover ratio and free throw shooting. Mississippi is second in the SEC in both turnover margin at +3.73 per game and assist/turnover ratio at 1.24. The Rebels have been in single digits in turnovers in 11 games and they have posted double-digit takeaways seven times this year, including 11 in the win over Appalachian St.
Clemson has a ratio of 1.11 and does not improve much at home as it goes to just 1.18 and 1.03 over the last five games. Clemson is shooting just 58.4 percent from the free throw line on the season which is 333rd in the entire country. It gets even worse as the Tigers have hit just 48.8 percent from the charity stripe over their last five games, 22.5 percent lower than what the Rebels are hitting over that same span. Mississippi is shooting over 70 percent on the season from the line.
The Rebels are 17-8 against the spread against teams with a winning record while Clemson is just 5-12 against the spread at home. Mississippi keeps this one tight and an outright win is quite likely.
Play: Mississippi +5½
Matt Fargo: Ole Miss +5½ at Clemson
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