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Go Back   Sports Handicapping, Betting & Picks - SBR Forum > Sports Handicapping, Picks and Game Discussion > NCAA Basketball Handicapping

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Old 02-06-2007, 09:51 PM   #1 (permalink)
Checkerboard
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Default A Half Dozen Questions About the Half Court Press . . .

Is this the time of year when the 3-5's play the 7-1's and you see upsets because the 3-5's play the press in a nothing-to- lose fashion?

Maybe I'm way off track here, but doesn't it seem as if there's always a rash of that kind of stuff just before Valentines?

Am I on track here or is it just imaginative memory?

And if you do agree, do you see any matchups in the near future that have the potential to play out this way?

What types of things makes a basketball team vulnerable to the press?

What types of things make a team good at pressing?

Thanks for responding . . .
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Old 02-07-2007, 03:40 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Another question I forgot to add to the list is doesn't the pressing team have to be somewhat deep in bench, because I would think when your pressing you incur more fouls?
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Old 02-08-2007, 12:11 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Checkerboard, I think I am qualified to answer some of your questions but not all of them because I do not understand what you mean by a 3-5 or 7-1........


"What makes a basketball team vulnerable to the press?".....the short and simple answer is ball-handling. A team with weak guards is, in general, more vulnerable to the press because they cannot handle the pressure. So, from a gambling view point, it might be wise that, if you are thinking of betting a team that presses, you might want to check the opposing guards turnovers per game and also their past competition.

"What types of things make a team good at pressing?".....I'd answer this by saying "coaching philosophy" and "team depth". Your team has to be in excellent condition to press all the time in every game. I dont watch basketball like I did say 5-10 years ago but it seems to me that coaches like to coach the games in 4 minute intervals because of TV timeouts.....basically, a micromanaging technique. From what I can tell nowadays, there are very few coaches that have the old Nolan Richardson "40 minutes of hell" type philosophy. Those that do must have depth. They better be playing 10 guys a night. Minimum of 8 guys. Injuries to these pressing type teams are devastating.


Finally, pressing doesn't necessarily incur more fouls. I think the general idea for most coaches is: "I'll press the hell out of them the 1st half and stay close. With about 10-15 minutes left in the game, they'll wear out and start making poor decisions which should lead to easy buckets for my team". Basketball is a game of reaction; there is really no time to think. Fatigue is directly proportional to bad decision making in basketball. An angle I used to play a long, long time ago was 1st half underdogs. Pressing teams don't generally blow anyone out in the 1st half because everyone is fresh. But the good pressing teams always win the war of attrition.

In the age of every NCAA game being on TV now, every team gets a timeout after 4 minutes. In my opinion, this does minimize the effectiveness of the pressing team because the opponent is always guaranteed a TV timeout every 4 minutes.

I don't know if this has answered your questions but hopefully that helps you a bit.



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Old 02-08-2007, 12:13 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Exhibit A: Duquesne
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Old 02-08-2007, 12:26 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Razz, that is how far out of the loop I am. I had no earthly idea that Duquesne was a pressing team. They should kill SLU every time (Is Duquesne still in the A-10?). If teams think Lisch is a ball handler, people should be pressing SLU 24/7. Plus SLU has no depth, a good starting 5 but zero depth.



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Old 02-08-2007, 12:52 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EBone
Razz, that is how far out of the loop I am. I had no earthly idea that Duquesne was a pressing team. They should kill SLU every time (Is Duquesne still in the A-10?). If teams think Lisch is a ball handler, people should be pressing SLU 24/7. Plus SLU has no depth, a good starting 5 but zero depth.



E
You're not that far behind. Duquesne was playing regular basketball until they lost a couple home games in a row (79-63 and 71-59 to Lasalle and Fordham, respectively). Since then, they've been playing maniacal ball, and these have been the scores:

87-101
93-89
96-92
93-92
111-92
111-105

all in regulation.
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Old 02-08-2007, 01:11 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Those scores seem indicative of a Westhead type team instead of a good pressing team. Too high scoring from the opponent. Makes for good 'OVER's though.

Maybe the Dukes are trying to become a good pressing team and they may be giving up too many easy baskets. I havent watched them play but I'd say that may be the case just by looking at the scores.


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Old 02-08-2007, 04:22 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Thanks EBone for your in-depth response. I really appreciate it and found it very informative. (By 7-1 and 3-5, I had been referring to win-loss records and should have made that more clear).

Razz, thanks for your input on the Dusquesne Dukes. Win or lose they do seem to qualify as a team that's opted for a playing style change attempting the press.

I'd like to be on the lookout for early signs of teams morphing into this form of play as a handicapping consideration.
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