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Go Back   Sports Handicapping, Betting & Picks - SBR Forum > Sports Handicapping, Picks and Game Discussion > NCAA Basketball Handicapping

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Old 01-06-2007, 11:32 AM   #1 (permalink)
LT Profits
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Default Connecticut/LSU OVER 135

Both of these offenses are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but the key to this OVER for us is how poorly the Connecticut defense played in its only road game this year.

Yes the Huskies are allowing just 56.4 points per game overall, but keep in mind that 12 of their 13 games have been at home vs. predominantly creampuff opponents. The one time that Connecticut did venture on the road, the defense was exposed for 81 points by West Virginia. The Huskies are now facing an LSU offense that is hitting 52.0 percent of its shots at home this season, so we would not be surprised if the Tigers approach 80 points here themselves.

Now granted the LSU defense has been a stiff one allowing 57.6 points per game vs. a tougher schedule than Connecticut has faced, but if the Tigers score 75 points in this game, the Huskies would only need to exceed 60 points for this game to go OVER. The Huskies are averaging 81.2 points per game overall, albeit vs. a soft schedule, and they did score 71 points in their only true test at West Virginia, so we do see this contest going OVER this modest total with relative ease.
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