04-01-09, 03:48 PM
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#1
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Quantity over quality
I am going to create this thread in hopes of going until I reach my goal of $10,000. I have looked at all my picks over the past couple years and noticed I never have had more than 6 losses in a row. I will share my success with everyone with hopes of making a few grand when this is all over. This is real money I will be using, however I suggest you follow with caution.
I will start with placing bets on the NBA, then roll into baseball (run lines), football, etc.. I am going to set aside $3,000 of my bankroll which is a fraction of my various online and local book accounts. The bets will be placed with a standard -105 vig and may vary depending on the situation (underdogs, moneyline, etc...)
My goal is to make about $20 per win. If I lose, I will chase that loss until I lose my entire bankroll-THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN!! I will also keep tabs of the percentages of the picks just to see where I would stand. I will be completely honest with everyone...My specialty is football and basketball where I hit 63% from September through April. My numbers will not be at 60% over every sport, but the goal is to make $10,000. Since we all crave more action, I will typically release multiple games per day. The first one must be over before I make my next wager. There may be a few instances that the game I will be betting on will be an absolute blowout, which will then be ok to place my next wager. With that being said my percentages will be much lower but that is not what I am trying to accomplish. If you want 60+% go to my thread "40 Picks in 40 Nights." I will also make a small side bet using a very consverative bankroll method. For that my starting bankroll will be $1000, so my first bet would be $50 (5%).
SOMETHING LIKE THIS WILL HAPPEN IF I LOSE 7 IN A ROW
1ST BET $21
2..........$43......LOST $64
3..........$88......LOST $152
4..........$180....LOST $332
5..........$370....LOST $702
6..........$757....LOST $1459
7..........$1553..LOST $3000
 GAME OVER!!!
EVERY BET I AM ONLY TRY TO WIN $20
I am not claiming to be an unbelievably great capper, I am just trying to avoid losing 7 losses in a row. I must first give credit to the people that originally came up with this idea. I have seen a few methods very similar to this and decided why not give it a try? Hate all you want, but I guarantee that you will be the first to congratulate me at the end.
BANKROLL $3000.00
1ST BET
NBA: ORLANDO -9.5 OVER TORONTO
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
*2ND BET ($50 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: SACRAMENTO +8.5 OVER GOLDEN STATE
The first couple of posts maybe a bit confusing, but you will easily understand after a few results are up. Now lets stack some paper!! |
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04-01-09, 04:41 PM
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#2
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i tend to stay away from these kinds of methods just because i'm not patient enough to watch the winnings come in. i like things to move at a faster clip. good luck though, i wish ya the best
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04-01-09, 05:42 PM
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#3
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This is the Martingale betting system where you double your bet after a loss. If you have never lost more than 6 bets in a row, you haven't sports gambled longer than a few months. At $20 per win, you need to win 350 bets to get to $10,000 (starting from $3,000). You said you hit on average about 60-63%. I'll assume that's true. That means that every one of your bets has a 37-40% chance of losing. The chances of that happening 7 times in a row before you reach 350 bets are better than you realize. I'm sure Ganchrow could spit out the probability. Good luck though.
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My first ever "ignore" poster: G's Pks
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04-01-09, 08:04 PM
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#4
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Dude,not wise!!
I do wish you the best though.
Good luck mate!
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04-01-09, 08:37 PM
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#5
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.37^6 = .0026
0.26% chance you get hammered. however, that's assuming that past performance indicates future results
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04-01-09, 09:30 PM
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#6
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Kroyrunner89 WTF?..............
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04-01-09, 10:26 PM
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#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machine Choice
This is the Martingale betting system where you double your bet after a loss. If you have never lost more than 6 bets in a row, you haven't sports gambled longer than a few months. At $20 per win, you need to win 350 bets to get to $10,000 (starting from $3,000). You said you hit on average about 60-63%. I'll assume that's true. That means that every one of your bets has a 37-40% chance of losing. The chances of that happening 7 times in a row before you reach 350 bets are better than you realize. I'm sure Ganchrow could spit out the probability. Good luck though.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hells Kitchen
Dude,not wise!!
I do wish you the best though.
Good luck mate!
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Guys, thank you for all the advice. I do appreciate it, but I really would like you to know this is pissing in the wind for me right now. I am doing this mostly for the fun with little hopes of making a bit of money. I do realize that this is a chasing system and definitely aware of all the risks involved. This is a very small percentage of my bankroll, rollovers, and winnings combined. If I lose seven in a row I will not lose sleep over this. The piggy bank will not be broken for this so everyone please relax and put the guns down.
I would like to add that I have been watching a very well known professional handicapper do this for close to 2 years and he is still rolling. He has received well over 400,000 views on his blog, but always stresses it is for entertainment purposes only. I would never ever try this with a significant portion of my bankroll and hope nobody ever does. With that being said lets go out and have some fun. If you have any suggestions, by all means let me know. Lets be a little optimistic and collectively reach our goal. Good luck!
Last edited by jmathes; 04-01-09 at 10:39 PM..
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04-02-09, 01:22 AM
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#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kroyrunner89
.37^6 = .0026
0.26% chance you get hammered. however, that's assuming that past performance indicates future results
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Not really sure how you got this, but it looks like you assume he hits 63% through all 350 plays (each at -105). If he can do that, he shouldn't even be using this system. He should be flat betting for obscene amounts of money.
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My first ever "ignore" poster: G's Pks
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04-02-09, 08:08 AM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machine Choice
Not really sure how you got this, but it looks like you assume he hits 63% through all 350 plays (each at -105). If he can do that, he shouldn't even be using this system. He should be flat betting for obscene amounts of money.
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First year wagering, but exactly what I thought, 63% or whatever, I'll would be betting even bigger! Maybe I'm missing something? Good luck with it!
MrMonkey  |
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04-02-09, 11:41 AM
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#10
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10/8 Dal/phil under 52.5 -170
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It can happen! You can lose and long streaks do happen! Maybe work out a shorter chase system... If you must chase.... There are several baseball systems out there to try... Basketball...the JM system has been successful..to a point....the point buying works at times.
If you really think you will never lose more than 6 games in a row... You should quit now! It will happen... Maybe start the chase with a $10 bet, $20, $40... If after 3 games it does not work go back to $10... Why have so much risked on these games that it can wipe you out!
In the last three weeks there have been more people going "all in", including someone giving you advice on this thread! Don't let a chase system wipe you out... Maybe a small dollar amount system like I mentioned along with your regular picks... I got wiped out on baseball years ago thinking sweeps, long streaks do not happen. When you have a real bad streak you will kind of have a helpless feeling like you are just guessing... That is when I bet even less! Not more, not all in!!!
I have made 3 total bets this week, 2-1. Overbetting has half these degenerates going all in quite often...
Good luck... if you are interested in a few baseball systems...drop me a line I will pass a few on for you to follow, try or research... GL G.
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04-02-09, 12:28 PM
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#11
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Lets get it again tonight fellas. I am so damn good I might start marketing this as the new and improved JM Extreme Chase System. The only thing I need is the silver Lamborghini, but that will come with the earnings I make from this. 
RESULTS FROM 4/1
1ST BET
NBA: ORLANDO -9.5 OVER TORONTO LOSS
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
*2ND BET ($50 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: SACRAMENTO +8.5 OVER GOLDEN STATE WIN
TODAY'S PICK(S):
1ST BET
NBA: WASHINGTON +10.5 OVER CLEVELAND
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
*2ND BET ($52 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -107)
NBA: DENVER -4 OVER UTAH **bought .5 pt at -107
SYSTEM BETS 1-0 +$20
SIDE BETS 1-0 +$48
TOTAL BETS 1-1
Last edited by jmathes; 04-02-09 at 12:34 PM..
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04-02-09, 05:03 PM
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#12
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So how much are you up?
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04-03-09, 02:31 PM
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#13
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RESULTS FROM 4/2
1ST BET
NBA: WASHINGTON +10.5 OVER CLEVELAND WIN
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
*2ND BET ($52 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -107)
NBA: DENVER -4 OVER UTAH **bought .5 pt at -107 WIN
TODAY'S PICK(S):
1ST BET
NBA: ORLANDO -3 OVER CLEVELAND
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
*2ND BET ($55 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: LA LAKERS -5.5 OVER HOUSTON
SYSTEM BETS 3-0 +$60
SIDE BETS 2-0 +$97
TOTAL BETS 3-1
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04-03-09, 03:30 PM
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#14
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Let me get this straight. YOur putting down $22 on Orl -3 to win $20. At the same time your taking another bankroll and making a side bet putting $55 on LA. If Orl does or does not cover you will then also bet $22 on LA to win $20 or increase the bet to like $46 to make up for the lost on the Orl game while making your $20 profit? So no matter waht your making 3 bets a night usually.
So your potenial profit could be $20 or $90.
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04-03-09, 04:08 PM
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#15
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yeah this is confusing with the different bet totals
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04-03-09, 08:38 PM
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#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGPLAYER
Let me get this straight. YOur putting down $22 on Orl -3 to win $20. At the same time your taking another bankroll and making a side bet putting $55 on LA. If Orl does or does not cover you will then also bet $22 on LA to win $20 or increase the bet to like $46 to make up for the lost on the Orl game while making your $20 profit? So no matter waht your making 3 bets a night usually.
So your potenial profit could be $20 or $90.
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You are about 99% correct. I have a a chase system going in which I am trying to make $20 with each series win. If I lose I will progressively chase that loss until I win the $20. So bet 1 is $21, if that loses I bet $43, $88 and so on. My goal is to not lose 7 times in a row before I reach the goal of $10,000.
Now to answer your question about the side bet. I started this with a $1,000 bankroll. I will bet .05% of that $1,000 on my stronger game of the day. I will usually make that clear by denoting the game and stating stronger bet. My goal here is to have a win rate of around 60% and for this bankroll to grow as well. In a nutshell I have a chase system and a side bet going on. I know this seems confusing but I am trying make it clear which game on my card is the stronger play and to make money off that as well. This year for the NBA & NCAA I am hitting my games at 64.3%. My bankroll is about as big as my co ck right now and its still growing. I figured why not have a little fun and see if I could take it to the next level. If this confuses you I suggest you go to my thread in ncaa basketball or players talk section called "40 picks and 40 nights." On this thread I am hitting at near 70% over 30 games. Here I typically release 1 pick a day, which is the same as my stronger pick. If you have any more questions feel free to ask. |
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04-04-09, 09:09 AM
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#17
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Nice work last night. I live on the east coast so I did not see the last quarter of the LA game but they worked it out. Seems a shame to only win $20 on a 29 point blow-out with Orl!! Keep the picks coming!
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04-04-09, 10:35 AM
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#18
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My strongest bet would be the under 221 in the Toronto & New York game. Good luck!
RESULTS FROM 4/3
1ST BET
NBA: ORLANDO -3 OVER CLEVELAND WIN
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
*2ND BET ($55 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: LA LAKERS -5.5 OVER HOUSTON WIN
TODAY'S PICK(S):
*1ST BET ($57 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: TORONTO & NEW YORK UNDER 221
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
2ND BET
NCAA: UCONN -2 OVER MICHIGAN STATE 1ST HALF
AFTER 2ND GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 3ND BET WIN OR LOSE
3RD BET
NBA: DENVER -14 OVER LA CLIPPERS
SYSTEM BETS 5-0 +$100
SIDE BETS 3-0 +$149
TOTAL BETS 5-1
Last edited by jmathes; 04-04-09 at 10:44 AM..
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04-04-09, 03:24 PM
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#19
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Another great call on the under with NY/Tor. But I could have sworn you had Vill +4 1st half as you second bet. Either way I'm rolling with UConn. Good luck man and thanks for posting your wisdom.
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04-04-09, 04:14 PM
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#20
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hey jmathes...I was also considering playing uconn first half...any reason you are leaning that way babe?
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04-04-09, 04:49 PM
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#21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGPLAYER
Another great call on the under with NY/Tor. But I could have sworn you had Vill +4 1st half as you second bet. Either way I'm rolling with UConn. Good luck man and thanks for posting your wisdom.
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I did have Villanova +4 for the first half but realized it would cause a time conflict with my Nuggets bet for the night. If the games didn't start so close to each other I would much rather be putting my money on Villanova rather than UConn. The Denver game is by far my stronger play so if UConn loses I have a solid "B" bet in place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsChic
hey jmathes...I was also considering playing uconn first half...any reason you are leaning that way babe?
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Sportschic, UConn just seems like a better matchup for me. Its not a terribly strong play but feel its better than being on Michigan State's side. UConn has the edge in just about every category offensively and defensively. They also have had a very big margin of victory over the first few rounds of the tourney. The linesmakers are giving a few extra points to Michigan State because its a home game, however I feel UConn will over this adversity. See my above comment to GGPlayer regardind my decisions. Good luck to the both of you! |
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04-04-09, 04:55 PM
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#22
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Thanks J..good luck to you too babe!! 
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04-04-09, 06:14 PM
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#23
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UConn just lost the 1st half basically because they cannot hit a free throw!! Pissed off right now. I'm chasing with Denver.
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04-05-09, 11:39 AM
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#24
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My strongest bet would be the under 220 in the New York and Toronto game. If you do not like the LA Lakers game, another bet I really like is the over 123 (first half) in the Sacramento & Golden State game. Good luck!
RESULTS FROM 4/4
*1ST BET ($57 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: TORONTO & NEW YORK UNDER 221 WIN
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
2ND BET
NCAA: UCONN -2 OVER MICHIGAN ST 1ST HALF LOSS
AFTER 2ND GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 3ND BET WIN OR LOSE
3RD BET
NBA: DENVER -14 OVER LA CLIPPERS WIN
TODAY'S PICK(S):
*1ST BET
NBA: SAN ANTONIO & CLEVELAND OVER 90.5 1ST HALF
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
2ND BET ($60 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: NEW YORK & TORONTO UNDER 220
AFTER 2ND GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 3ND BET WIN OR LOSE
3RD BET
NBA: LA LAKERS -16 OVER LA CLIPPERS
SYSTEM BETS 7-0 +$140
SIDE BETS 4-0 +$203
TOTAL BETS 7-2
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04-06-09, 03:47 PM
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#25
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Only 1 game tonight fellas but will be back with a couple strong NBA plays tomorrow.
RESULTS FROM 4/5
1ST BET
NBA: SAN ANTONIO & CLEV OVER 90.5 1ST HALF WIN
AFTER 1ST GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 2ND BET WIN OR LOSE
2ND BET ($60 SIDE BET & STRONGER BET AT -105)
NBA: NEW YORK & TORONTO UNDER 220 WIN
AFTER 2ND GAME IS OVER I WILL PLACE THE 3ND BET WIN OR LOSE
3RD BET
NBA: LA LAKERS -16 OVER LA CLIPPERS LOSS
TODAY'S PICK(S):
*1ST BET (BET B IN CHASE & $63 SIDE BET -105)
NCAA: MICHIGAN STATE & UNC UNDER 154.5
SYSTEM BETS 9-0 +$180
SIDE BETS 5-0 +$259
TOTAL BETS 9-3
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04-07-09, 06:09 AM
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#26
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This is a very strong bet. Do not pass up on this. UConn women are unstoppable and will easily cover this spread.
RESULTS FROM 4/6
1ST BET
*1ST BET (BET B IN CHASE & $63 SIDE BET -105)
NCAA: MICHIGAN STATE & UNC UNDER 154.5 LOSS
TODAY'S PICK(S):
*1ST BET (BET C/$88 IN CHASE & $70 SIDE BET -105)
NCAA: UCONN -16 OVER LOUISVILLE (WOMEN)
SYSTEM BETS 9-0 +$180
SIDE BETS 5-1 +$196
TOTAL BETS 9-4
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04-08-09, 08:29 AM
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#27
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Results from 4/7
*1st BET (bet c/$88 in chase & $70 side bet -105)
ncaa: Uconn -16 over louisville (women) win
today's pick(s):
1st bet
mlb: Florida marlins -1 1/2 run line (+155)
after 1st game is over i will place the 2nd bet win or lose
2ND BET (stronger bet and $64 side bet -105)
NBA: New orleans -3 over phoenix
system bets 10-0 +$200
side bets 6-1 +$261
total bets 9-4
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04-08-09, 02:16 PM
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#28
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you are the best jmathes  |
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04-09-09, 08:06 AM
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#29
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Results from 4/8
1st bet
mlb: Florida marlins -1 1/2 run line (+155) WIN
after 1st game is over i will place the 2nd bet win or lose
2ND BET (stronger bet and $64 side bet -105)
NBA: New orleans -3 over phoenix LOSS
today's pick(s):
1st bet
mlb: BOSTON RED SOX -1 1/2 OVER TAMPA
stronger bet and $60 side bet (+130)
system bets 11-0 +$220
side bets 6-2 +$197
total bets 10-5
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04-09-09, 11:22 AM
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#30
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Thanks for the picks. I haven't tailed you yet but I probably will. Thanks again for the effort.
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04-09-09, 05:01 PM
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#31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmathes
Results from 4/8
1st bet
mlb: Florida marlins -1 1/2 run line (+155) WIN
after 1st game is over i will place the 2nd bet win or lose
2ND BET (stronger bet and $64 side bet -105)
NBA: New orleans -3 over phoenix LOSS
today's pick(s):
1st bet
mlb: BOSTON RED SOX -1 1/2 OVER TAMPA
stronger bet and $60 side bet (+130)
system bets 11-0 +$220
side bets 6-2 +$197
total bets 10-5
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adding a pick today to the chase
denver nuggets +8.5 over la lakers |
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04-10-09, 07:58 AM
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#32
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Results from 4/9
mlb: BOSTON RED SOX -1 1/2 OVER TAMPA
stronger bet and $60 side bet (+130) LOSS
after 1st game is over i will place the 2nd bet win or lose
2ND BET (stronger bet and $64 side bet -105)
NBA: DENVER NUGGETS +8.5 OVER LA LAKERS LOSS
today's pick(s):
1st bet BET C/$88 IN CHASE (stronger bet and $58 side bet -105)
NBA: DALLAS MAVERICKS -6.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS
system bets 11-0 +$220
side bets 6-3 +$137
total bets 10-7
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04-11-09, 11:02 AM
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#33
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Results from 4/10
1st bet BET C/$88 IN CHASE (stronger bet and $58 side bet -105)
NBA: DALLAS MAVERICKS -6.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS WIN
today's pick(s):
1ST BET
MLB: TORONTO & CLEVELAND UNDER 8.5
after 1st game is over i will place the 2nd bet win or lose
*2ND BET (stronger bet and $59 side bet -105)
NBA: ORLANDO -6 OVER NEW JERSEY
system bets 12-0 +$240
side bets 7-3 +$191
total bets 11-7
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04-12-09, 10:11 AM
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#34
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Results from 4/11
1ST BET
MLB: TORONTO & CLEVELAND UNDER 8.5 LOSS
after 1st game is over i will place the 2nd bet win or lose
*2ND BET (stronger bet and $59 side bet -105)
NBA: ORLANDO -6 OVER NEW JERSEY LOSS
today's pick(s):
*1ST BET/C BET FOR CHASE $88 ($56 side bet -105)
NBA: CLEVELAND -6.5 OVER BOSTON
system bets 12-0 +$240
side bets 7-4 +$132
total bets 11-9
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04-13-09, 06:19 PM
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#35
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Results from 4/12
*1ST BET/C BET FOR CHASE $88 ($56 side bet -105)
NBA: CLEVELAND -6.5 OVER BOSTON WIN
today's pick(s):
*1ST BET ($59 side bet -105)
NBA: DALLAS -6 OVER MINNESOTA 1ST HALF
after 1st game is over i will place the 2nd bet win or lose
2ND BET
NBA: PORTLAND -12 OVER OKLAHOMA CITY
system bets 13-0 +$260
*side bets 8-4 +$185
total bets 12-9
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Linear Mode
