Line Up or Down from here???

emat · 04-07-2008, 05:06 PM

I took KU to win whole thing before tournament at around 5 to 1. Looking to hedge my bet by taking Memphis tonight. Would like to see it go to -1 at 110. Not comfortable taking -1.5 as I could see this being a pretty close game. ML at -125. I would say in a toss up like this it ought to close in at the original -1 line by game time. Any thoughts. If I had a strong thought on total, I would also consider tease and try to win both bets. The total is tough on this one though even with 5 point tease.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-07-2008, 05:08 PM

Just take it now. In the last 10 years, no game has been decided by less than 3.

freeVICK · 04-07-2008, 05:10 PM

just take memphis ML

emat · 04-07-2008, 05:17 PM

Probably will just cover ML at -125. Understand there have not been a lot close games in the past, but no way do I risk losing both bets by trying to save a few bucks. Might consider covering 50% on Memphis ML and holding rest until 2nd half, although my gut tells me Memphis could be a solid bet for the 1st half. Sure was hoping KU would be favored here, but after seeing Memphis the last few games, I think the books have this right. Memphis FT% is the big factor here. What the hell were they doing during the regular season???

dannyt76 · 04-07-2008, 05:18 PM

Memphis ML to hedge your bet.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-07-2008, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emat

Probably will just cover ML at -125. Understand there have not been a lot close games in the past, but no way do I risk losing both bets by trying to save a few bucks. Might consider covering 50% on Memphis ML and holding rest until 2nd half, although my gut tells me Memphis could be a solid bet for the 1st half. Sure was hoping KU would be favored here, but after seeing Memphis the last few games, I think the books have this right. Memphis FT% is the big factor here. What the hell were they doing during the regular season???

Not having Rose & CDR handle the ball pretty much the entire second half. Those are the guys making the FTs. Their big guys still are a 50-50 prop shooting.

emat · 04-07-2008, 05:43 PM

You are probably right. The fact they did not play a lot of close games in the sorry conference meant they didn't have a lot of pressure and probably didn't care who had the ball at the end. However, the past few games they have been well above average no matter who is shooting. I still think this could come back and get them tonight. Just missing 5 or 6 throws to get them back down to normal could be huge for KU here. My only concern for KU in this game is the fact I think they blew their wad against UNC. I know a lot of fans saying no matter what happens tonight they feel they already succeeded. Mass street was also celebrating like UNC was their final game on Saturday. Memphis should be business as usual tonight so if KU comes out just a little flat, this could get ugly for KU. Hope not but sometimes you have to look past the X's and O's and look at the intangibles.