Ex-Tout's NCAAs Selections: DANGER - KEEP OUT!

ritehook · 03-19-2008, 05:13 PM

Lots of danger.

I almost always do well, betting-wise, in this tournament. Usually have from 15 to around 23 plays, most in 1st Round natch. Last year went a good 10-5 ATS.

But I also almost always do very well in the bowl games. And this last bowl bash went into the tank so deep I'm stil scraping the smelly barnacles off my hide.

Like many bettors, I have my susperstitions. So I'm thinking I angered the omnipotent gods of gambling by posting my plays last December.

I know i posted more plays then than I usually do.

So, this is an experiment. To see if I can overcome any hex involved in my putting plays out there.

And, mainly, it's to have a convenient place to record my own bets. I will do a brief write-up on each, but likely will not have time on Friday nite or Sat morn for the Round of 32.

Thus, avoid the danger. Either fade or ignore.

Odds are from Bookmaker an hour or so ago. I rate each play as one unit, 1 1/2, or (rarely) 2.

THURS

Belmont +20 (Duke) 1 unit
Belmont lost to Gtown last year in Rd 1, but managed to cover the 17 pts. Bruins a more veteran team now. And Duke is often, in Rd 1, inclined to "loaf," to not kick into high gear until the 2nd round. They also have some achey players (inc Paulus) so may give a few of their starters more rest than usual.

Georgia +8.5 (Xavier) 1 unit
Yes, I do know tht Georgia is a strange qualifier for this event. But if you believe in "mo" ya gotta have Georgia on your mind. Musketeers likely win, but if Georgia is not all tuckered out after their heroic run thru the SEC tourney they may be getting a few points too many here.

George Mason +6.5 (Notre Dame) 2 units

My only 2 unit play in Rd 1. Yeah, some think the Irish are so balanced and with a #2 rated Assist/Turnover ratio that they go a long way in this tournament. But what has me negative toward them is that they rely too much on the perimeter shot.

I've seen before in this event that teams that excel in that in regular season often see if fail them under the pressure of the tournament.

George Mason won't have any jitters. We all recall their magical run into the Final Four two years ago, and around half the players who did that are back.

Let me post these and I'm back in a few minutes.

ritehook · 03-19-2008, 05:44 PM

I have a total of 10 First Round plays.

Let me post 3 or 4 more,than I got to get some other business done, but will return this evening with the rest.

Oral Roberts +8.5 (Pitt) 1 unitPitt's healthy and wil be tough.
I do like OR, in that they have recent tournament experience, and have improved greatly over last year when they were an easy eliminatin in Rd One.

Nowhere last seaon in scoring defense and FG % defense, but in top 30 TY in both categories. And, a veteran team, with 4 senior starters and one junior.

FRIDAY

Siena +6.5 (Vandy) 1 1/2 units
Siena has Mo, winning their last six, while Vandy could only split their last six. Obviously there is a gap in the quality of opposition, but the Saints do own an early season win over Stanford, so they know they can do itr against the Bigs.

Vandy won all its home games, but was only 50% on the road.
And this is Tampa, not Nashville. Siena ranks in Top 10 in land in steals. If Commodores snooze, they'll lose.

Western Kentucky +4 (Drake) 1 unit
Hilltoppers could wear the glass slippers this year. If guard play wins this thing, as is often stated, then W Ky has that commodity in spades. And, a high-scoring bench, so fatigue should not be a prob.'

Not to denigrate Drake - I used to love thier cakes as a kid.

Gotta go. Back tonite with rest of the first round. And remember: DANGER!!!

Cee · 03-19-2008, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ritehook

Lots of danger.

I almost always do well, betting-wise, in this tournament. Usually have from 15 to around 23 plays, most in 1st Round natch. Last year went a good 10-5 ATS.

But I also almost always do very well in the bowl games. And this last bowl bash went into the tank so deep I'm stil scraping the smelly barnacles off my hide.

Like many bettors, I have my susperstitions. So I'm thinking I angered the omnipotent gods of gambling by posting my plays last December.

I know i posted more plays then than I usually do.

So, this is an experiment. To see if I can overcome any hex involved in my putting plays out there.

And, mainly, it's to have a convenient place to record my own bets. I will do a brief write-up on each, but likely will not have time on Friday nite or Sat morn for the Round of 32.

Thus, avoid the danger. Either fade or ignore.

Odds are from Bookmaker an hour or so ago. I rate each play as one unit, 1 1/2, or (rarely) 2.

THURS

Belmont +20 (Duke) 1 unit
Belmont lost to Gtown last year in Rd 1, but managed to cover the 17 pts. Bruins a more veteran team now. And Duke is often, in Rd 1, inclined to "loaf," to not kick into high gear until the 2nd round. They also have some achey players (inc Paulus) so may give a few of their starters more rest than usual.

Georgia +8.5 (Xavier) 1 unit
Yes, I do know tht Georgia is a strange qualifier for this event. But if you believe in "mo" ya gotta have Georgia on your mind. Musketeers likely win, but if Georgia is not all tuckered out after their heroic run thru the SEC tourney they may be getting a few points too many here.

George Mason +6.5 (Notre Dame) 2 units

My only 2 unit play in Rd 1. Yeah, some think the Irish are so balanced and with a #2 rated Assist/Turnover ratio that they go a long way in this tournament. But what has me negative toward them is that they rely too much on the perimeter shot.

I've seen before in this event that teams that excel in that in regular season often see if fail them under the pressure of the tournament.

George Mason won't have any jitters. We all recall their magical run into the Final Four two years ago, and around half the players who did that are back.

Let me post these and I'm back in a few minutes.

ND has harangody inside. He's had a number of 30 point games. They don't just launch 3s and that's it, like they used to.

LT Profits · 03-19-2008, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ritehook

Not to denigrate Drake - I used to love thier cakes as a kid.

Come on, EVERYBODY knows that Hostess kicks Drake's butt all the time!

EaglesPhan36 · 03-19-2008, 09:02 PM

Outside of Georgia & George Mason, I like your picks. GL.

ritehook · 03-19-2008, 11:45 PM

Hey, thanks gents. Late tonite when all is done I'll check everyone else's selections. Don't like doing it before I finish. By god, if I go into the stinktank again I want it to be MY tank!

(Yeah, Irish have balance, but they also excel on the 3 pt shot, which of course they won't be taking if they get out to a nice early lead. BTW, it's said that the 3 pointer saved college hoops for white kids. Look at the teams who regularly lead the nation in the 3 pters - mostly high academic schools. I think Cornell ranks high this year.)

And I'm not sure they had Hostess cakes when I was a kid. But, then again, when I was a kid we also had a pretty good president, unlike now. I remember him well, Mr Lincoln.

Rest of Friday

Mississippi State -2.5 (Oregon) 1 1/2 units
Ducks must try to quack a long way from home, where Bill Clinton got his start. They are a high scoring team, but also like their 3 pointers, and I have, as noted, a bias against the overuse of that shot in the tournament (tho they do provide lots of "shining moments.")

Bulldogs are like their football counterparts, mostly about a solid, pestering defense. Ranked second nationally (going by memory here, guys, cut me some slack) in FG % defense same ranking in blocked shots.

Looks like it's going to be a sloppy game, and that favors Miss St. This is only one of two faves I'm betting in Round 1.

Texas -15.5 (Austin Peay) 1 unit
It's not my practice to bet double digit dogs in these end of season contests, and not that often during the season. Just can't see how AP can stay close to the Horns, who should have no prob outrunning and outmjuscling the Govs.

St Mary's +1 (Miami FL) 1 1/2 units
Miami did whip Duke and Clemson, that says a lot. But the measly point they're giving looks a bit like a trap game. Gaels did beat Oregon, Gonzaga and Drake's Cakes. I'm very cautious and skeptical about power ratings in these season ending events, but I do nonetheless have the Catholic boys as being 1.5 pts over the Cane hiphoppers, so I'll toss caution to the wind and go with it.

South Alabama +4.5 (Butler) 1 unit
Butler has to be respected, they're proven. I do respct them, but I also respect 4.5 pts, and looks like it may be rising at some shops.

Jaguars should control the boards,tho. And I think they're only 300 or so miles from home, so the good ol' boys should be in attendance to root 'em on. Bulldogs have to come down from Indy.

That's it for me 1st round. Or all rounds if I go 0-10, 2-8, or some other obscene result. In which case I'll just run and hide.
Just about finished posting other stuff on boards anyway, but may return for horses on Derby Day, only 6 weeks off.

ritehook · 03-19-2008, 11:52 PM

Oklahoma also looks strong agaisnt what may be a tired St Joe team. It it was a Pick I may have bet a unit.

Might anyway, but won't count it in the "official" plays. (Now watch if be my sole winner)

OLGC_Slayer · 03-19-2008, 11:59 PM

Thank you I enjoyed your analysis. BOL with your plays.

ritehook · 03-22-2008, 11:24 AM

5-5 thurs and friday, but had more units on losers.

Had time only for today, Sat, and have to go fast.

All these are one unit plays.

Xavier -3 Purdue

Wash St -2.5 (Will fade the Irish again.)

Duke -4

Having computer probs, if I can resolve them back tonite or Sun AM. I'm among the unchurched, so that's no prob.

ritehook · 03-23-2008, 12:15 AM

Went 2-1 yesterday.

Putting this post on with a 9 year old desktop, Win 98.

Just a clone, but the most reliable pc I ever had. Never had a virus program either, those things cause more trouble than they're worth. Just stay out of porn sites, etc, you won't need McAfee or Norton.

It something is still usable, it ain't "obsolete."

Only one play for Sunday: Butler. It's + 4.5 at Bookmaker right now, and I'll go with that for record purposes. But I think it may rise like yeast tomorrow, as tip approaches. So I'll wait till then, but still make it the play of record at 4.5.

Tennessee is vulnerablee. I'm also looking at Western Kentucky. Not likely to bet it, as I don't like teams that overexerted and went into OT and won with "one shining moment." Bounce. But the Hilltoppers were my candidate for the glass slippers this year, so I'll watch with interest.

Back next week for Sweet 16

ritehook · 03-23-2008, 12:32 AM

Or earlier, if I have a rare play in the NIT

ritehook · 03-23-2008, 01:45 PM

Only counting straight bets in my DANGER KEEP OUT thread, but I did put a small 4 pt teaser bet in on: Butler, Texas, Georgetown

ritehook · 03-23-2008, 05:16 PM

Half point loss with Butler. For the record, I did buy the hook and got it at +5. So a push for me, but a red entry mark on the book.

Teaser skidded, wth the GTown flop.

ritehook · 03-24-2008, 06:18 PM

NIT "informational plays" for Monday, 3/24.

I am wagering but one-third of a unit on these, so I won't make them part of the record for that little. I will make a full unit play on an NIT game only very rarely, as I don't know what's in the proverbial "hearts and minds" of the players or coaches in this "consoation tourney."

Anyway, for wht their worth: California +7.5

And, Nebraska +5.

Back tomorrow with the Sweet 16 picks,if any.

ritehook · 03-26-2008, 05:51 PM

Happy I didn't make those NIT plays part of my unit plays!

I have five plays for the Sweet 16.

For me, that is a lot! The most I ever had in this round.

But, I gotta call 'em as I see 'em.

XAVIER +1 (West Va)
A #2 as a small dog to a #7. Hmmm. Mountaineer have solid ATR, but I like the veteran Musketeers excellent free throw percentage (75 %). In a close game that is usually all important.

NORTH CAROLINA -8 (Washington St)
Tarheels playing close to home, Cougs coming cross-country, 3 time zones. (Bring the melatonin.) NC should pretty much dominate inside, and that should be all she wrote, even laying the 8.

TENNESSEE +3.5 (Louisville)
Vols need more control on the court, but making them a 3 1/2 pt dog here is pushing beyond sense, I think (and hope). It's likely due to the injury to key Tenn guard Loftin, but the last report I saw indicates he will be OK for the game. Volunteers this season beat good teams like W. Va, Xavier, Gonzaga, Ky, Miss St, and Memphis (only loss) ON THE ROAD.

I think the Vols win the game if the key guard is healthy, And I think he will be.

DAVIDSON +4.5 (Wisconsin)
You have to respect Wisky and their tenacious defense. But you also have to respect the nation's longest win streak, coupled with 4 1/2 points (which may jump to 5 by tip, but I'm making the picks now so I'll go with the current number).

Normally, I look with suspicion on a team that's a bit too solid with 3 pointers, as I've seen that kind of shooting fail too many times under the crush of the tournament. (Like Notre Dame's perimeter shooting vs Wash St over the weekend.) But the Wildcats ratio of 3pts to fg in general is only about an 8 difference, borderline but Ok. BUT last game they hit 15 fewer 3 pters than thier season average, and may well be good to bounce back to their usual 36 + %. Even against this tough Badger team.

KANSAS - 11.5 (Villanova)
Yeah, I'm gonna lay the heavy lumber here. Nova lost 12 games coming into the Tournament, Kansas but 3. Yeah, Nova was in the Big East, but still . . . And Kansas has been playing lights out. I'm betting they turn the lights out for the team from Phily.

All plays are for ONE UNIT.

Will be back if anything shows up in NIT. If not, then Sat for Elite Eight.

ritehook · 03-29-2008, 02:19 PM

4-1 ATS in Sweet 16.

I owe it all to the Great God of Gambling and his Consort, Lady Luck.

Two plays for the Elite Eight, one on each day.

SAT:

NORTH CAROLINA -6 (Louisville) (1 1/2units)
I did get this at -5.5, but it's -6 at most places now.

Tarheels playing but a half hour from home.

They won all three tournament games by at least 21 points.

Hansbrough is not likely to have the same crappy first half as he did last game.

SUN:

MEMPHIS -3.5 (Texas) (1 unit)
Texas is playing in Texas, and played a tougher schedule.

Memphis lost only one game all season, and had the second biggest margin of victory in the land. That should offset the above points for th