Hey guys, going to experiment with taking team over/unders this year, based mostly on hard statistical data from kenpom and other sources. 1-1 so far, let's see where this goes. Today's pick is below. All lines are from 5dimes (-110). Comments (and points!) are always appreciated if these are helpful.
Today's pick: Cleveland State (15-1; 4-0 Horizon) scoring OVER 63 on the road against Butler (10-5; 2-1 Horizon). Cleveland State is scoring 73.3 per game, although admittedly their schedule has not been terribly difficult. Butler's defense is giving up 64.7 points per game. Cleveland's only loss this season came on the road against West Virginia, 74-63. According to KenPom stats, Butler and WVA are ranked comparably in both adjusted tempo and adjusted defensive efficiency. However, Butler plays mostly man, while WVA's defensive fingerprint according to KenPom is "Inconclusive" (which I assume means a mix of man, zone and other defenses). This season Cleveland has consistently scored in the 70s and 80s against teams that play mostly man defense. They have scored under 63 points only twice in the last 10 games, against WVA and Robert Morris, both of which have an "inconclusive" defensive fingerprint. Finally, this is the first of an important two-game conference road trip for Cleveland State -- from one recent news report: "should the Vikings sweep, they may be in line for an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, while Butler would see their own at large chances diminish."