[Oscar]

I've had some success over the years wagering March brackets by focusing on the close games (i.e., 7-10, 6-11 and 8-9 matchups). I only use about 5 pieces of data for these games. Here are my bets/leans (astericked): Note: using WSEX lines from early this morning - if they have changed, sorry.

**KENT ST -2.0
UNLV +2.0

KANSAS ST +2.5
**USC -2.5

KENTUCKY +4.5
**MARQUETTE -4.5

TEXAS A&M -2.0
**BYU +2.0 Bigbet

ARIZONA +2.0
**WEST VIRGINIA -2.0

**SOUTH BAMA +4.5
BUTLER -4.5

ARKANSAS +1.5
**INDIANA -1.5

OREGON +2.5
**MISS ST -2.5 Bigbet

**ST. JOSEPHS +1.5
OKLAHOMA -1.5

DAVIDSON -2.0
**GONZAGA +2.0

**BAYLOR +3.0
PURDUE -3.0


Oscar

[andyman009]

u really think the zags are gonna beat davidson??

[LT Profits]

I like Gonzaga myself andy. I would have liked Davidson if they were underdogs, but as small favorites, you can't ignore the fact that they do not have a quality non-conference win. Yes they played some great teams tough in December, but they didn't actually WIN any of those games. I think that St. Mary's and San Diego are both better than any team that Davidson has beaten, and Gonzaga has three wins over those two teams combined.

[andyman009]

purdue and butler win

[andyman009]

oh and i have davidson making it to the elite 8 LT

[Oscar]

u really think the zags are gonna beat davidson??

Andy - funny you mention that game, because my first lean was Davidson..the more I looked at it, the more I liked the 2points; zags will have to overcome cross-country trip to what's essentially a home game for favorite - be interesting to see the line move on this one

[TPowell]

Baylor-Purdue is who actually wants to play ball and I think it will be Purdue but Baylor has senior leadership and Purdue is so young

[LT Profits]

Baylor-Purdue is who actually wants to play ball and I think it will be Purdue but Baylor has senior leadership and Purdue is so young

Plus the Big 12 pisses on the Big Ten this year.

[Wassymac]

Plus the Big 12 pisses on the Big Ten this year.

Except for this particular matchup. Baylor will enjoy the atmosphere and Purdue will move on.

[BuddyBear]

I am starting to like Gonzaga myself.... I consider both Gonzaga/Davidson two bet on teams so it was disappointing to see them matched up against one another.

They are about even but Davidson plays in a pitiful conference (not that the WCC is better but they do have 3 tournament teams). I am a little surprised Gonzaga did not open as the fav but I figured money would come in on Davidson given the site of this match up. Even with that, I still think Gonzaga is the better team and with more experience as well.

[BuddyBear]

Except for this particular matchup. Baylor will enjoy the atmosphere and Purdue will move on.

We'll have to see about this. I really think Baylor is the right side to this game.

[Wassymac]

We'll have to see about this. I really think Baylor is the right side to this game.

They could be and their quick guards will definitely present a matchup problem but I'll take my chances that Purdue's on the ball pressure slows them down enough to get the W. I think Baylor's D will be a breathe of fresh air for Purdue.

At any rate I think it's an interesting matchup and should be a fun one to watch.

[TPowell]

I feel ya Oscar, but I have Purdue over Baylor. I've got the rest of the teams you have straight up

[stingyrivers]

would be helpful to us oscar if you included what the 5 pieces of data are that you consider?

[TPowell]

yeah that would be good to know since we have basically the same ideas

[Ivan77]

its real easy to get carried away and bet too many games on thursday and friday, i've always made money betting like 3 games a day for the big dance! Here are 3 great plays for thursday..
West Virginia-2.5
Oral Roberts + 10
UNLV +1.5

Fridays 3 plays...
Arkansas +1
South Alabama +5
Davidson-2

[Wassymac]

I'm an iddiot but surprised even myself that I tried this.

[Oscar]

its real easy to get carried away and bet too many games on thursday and friday,

agree completely

[Oscar]

I feel ya Oscar, but I have Purdue over Baylor. I've got the rest of the teams you have straight up

I'm glad to be on the same side as you on these. Good luck !

[mofome]

nice stuff oscar, i look forward to seeing how you do!

[Oscar]

would be helpful to us oscar if you included what the 5 pieces of data are that you consider?

Well, I guess it would be helpful if >60% of these hit! In general, though, I use a weighted system looking at rebound diff, asst/to, # sr. starters, & point diff, using "away" data only. Finally, but least importantly, I look at road power ranking.