When you fade a "trap", you enter a trap. Play the matchup on the court, not the matchup in the books. If you think a matchup line is too good to be true....POUND IT.
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03-14-08 04:17 PM #1
The truth about "Traps"
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03-14-08 04:18 PM #2
Your not talking about Per-doo, are you?
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03-14-08 04:19 PM #3
I like your style
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03-14-08 04:21 PM #4
I'm not talking about any particular game. Generically speaking, if someone has thoroughly capped a game and still thinks the line is too good to be true -- and then fades themselves on suspicion of a "trap"-- then Vegas has them right where they want them: PAWNS in the game.
Originally Posted by OLGC_Slayer
Your not talking about Per-doo, are you?
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03-14-08 04:22 PM #5
Yep. How many times have people second guessed their capping only to miss out on a nice cash in because they thought it was a trick?
I think the book sets the line where they really think it will end up.
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03-14-08 04:27 PM #6Slappin troubles away with the SlapChop
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Thank you...This trap nonsense about every good looking game is getting out of hand around here..
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03-14-08 04:32 PM #7
Youre a smart man, I couldnt agree more. Stop trying to find a method to the madness and just play the line for what it is.... Originally Posted by St. Andrew
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03-14-08 04:38 PM #8
You guys do me a favor. Look up the stats on lines that move WITH the public money like this purdue game. Tell me how the record is for those that take the "too good to be true" line and the other side. Go on, look it up, i aint givin you the number, then post it and tell me why i should bet on purdue. Although purdue is a superior team, they are at a coaching disadvantage and already have a spot in the dance sewed up. As for Illinois, this is their only shot. They gotta win out. Kinda reminds me of a certain Syracuse team that got snubbed. Anyways, thats an angle if your on illinois, but fuk angles, follow the numbers. Originally Posted by armyoflovers
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03-14-08 04:43 PM #9
I'm not telling anyone to bet on Purdue. In fact, I have Purdue winning by only 3 points. But I'm not betting the game. My original post pertained to my overall philosophy on "traps." If you think Purdue won't cover, then good! Take Illinois (as I would do if I were betting this game). Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans
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03-14-08 04:44 PM #10
i would have been outta plays if i pounded em. Like cuse , fl , uconn. Keeps me level thinkin about "traps" but that's just me
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03-14-08 04:57 PM #11
I don't believe in traps. There is no reason to believe in them anyway. A line is set not based on some clown tricks, but based on performances of both teams.
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03-14-08 05:06 PM #12
I would think that the lines would be set to try to limit risk and lead to profit for the books... Originally Posted by Arnold
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03-14-08 05:07 PM #13
Just so you know, let me show you some stuff just from today. I love bein right.
Vandy 73% public
Ark 27%
Opened -1 vandy. Closed -1 Ark.
Vandy being heavily favored by the public is given two points even though theres plenty of action on that side of things. Thus the book coaxes more wagers on Vandy, and then BOOM
Ark wins.
This happened with quite a few games, check it out.
Also, i have yet to see anyone in this thread disprove this with fact/numbers.
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03-14-08 05:14 PM #14
I don't really believe in traps either.
But I do tend to agree with BOT's point. I pay attention when the line is moving with, instead of against, a bet made by the vast majority of players (like Purdue today). That suggests to me that the big money is going against the majority of the bettors. I am far more comfortable with a popular bet when the line is moving to discourage it (like Utah State today). That tells me that the big money is following the majority of the bettors, and the books are moving to get some on the other side. (The key thing to notice is that, as far as I can tell, on sites like thespread.com, we get information only on the number of bets, not on the amount of money, going to each side.)
All that said, I bet however I think I might win.
(By the way, for full disclosure, I'm on Purdue today (-4.5) with a small play.)
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03-14-08 05:21 PM #15
From a gambler's standpoint i think the ability to see through traps is highly related to a gambler's ability to distinguish between statistical/matchup factors and assumed factors. This may not true for all gamblers but I find that I made my worst bets when I relied mostly on assumed factors.
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03-14-08 05:24 PM #16
Yesterday this trend occurred with
Boise st
USC
Baylor, who many got killed on
Minnesota
Maryland
ALL heavy public plays with ilne movement in the wrong direction did not cash ATS yesterday. 2 5pt+ faves lost SU.
There, NOW TELL ME THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TRAP
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03-14-08 05:24 PM #17
Forget all that shit, I need a winner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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03-14-08 05:25 PM #18
Ill +5
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03-14-08 05:27 PM #19
what i find funny is when people say "mavs have to win this game. Or, spurs have to win this game. "
teams have to win all the time, but that doesnt mean they can win because they have to.
illinois is not CLOSE to purdue, talent wise. not close. Purdue wants to win this game and win the big 10 just like illinois.
Purdue wins, Purdue ML
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03-14-08 05:35 PM #20
By the way, thanks, BOT, for pointing that out about yesterday's trends. That's useful info.
And good luck to you this evening.
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03-14-08 05:46 PM #21
Valid statement that relates directly to my point. I'm not saying there are no such thing as traps because they certainly exist. However, I think that gamblers trap themselves more than the bookies try to trap gamblers. Originally Posted by billmunny
With that being said, I wonder if there is a way to see not how many people placed a specific bet but how much money was placed on a specific bet (eg. 250 bets could have been placed on Duke -11.5 totalling $10,000 and only 125 bets could have been placed on GT +11.5 totalling $11,000). Mainly concerning bets favoring popular teams, sometimes it isn't the number of people who are placing a bet in favor of a team that you need to focus on it's the amount of money that is actually placed by those bets.
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03-14-08 05:47 PM #22
Thanks guy, at least ONE person got my point Originally Posted by regularguy
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03-14-08 05:48 PM #23
The % of the public isnt based on persons, its based on Money. Good point, but who says big money is smart money? I lost 1.5k on tenn 2nd half. Because i bet 1.5 didnt mean it was right Originally Posted by thegreatdiatchi
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03-14-08 06:12 PM #24
That's true too. There really is no way to completely predetermine whether a play is smart or not - otherwise everyone that knew how would be doing it and wouldn't be losing money in the process. The best you possibly can do is consider all statistical and matchup factors and figure out what gives you the highest probability of winning. Even then you are wrong sometimes. Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans
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03-14-08 06:14 PM #25
Originally Posted by thegreatdiatchi
I have tried a few times this season to find a clear answer to that. I have not been able to. Like I said, as far as I can tell, all we get is information regarding numbers of bets. Information regarding amounts of money is not provided, it appears. I have concluded that this is one reason why lines don't always seem to move in the right direction.
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03-14-08 08:10 PM #26
four words for you squares. I TOLD YOU SO.
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03-14-08 08:11 PM #27
Can we stop beating this dead horse now?
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03-14-08 08:11 PM #28
I'm a square and I have never claimed to be anything but a square. Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans
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03-14-08 08:16 PM #29
hey i did nothin but try and give ya a winner
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03-14-08 08:17 PM #30
Lol 12 Point Win For Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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03-14-08 08:23 PM #31Slappin troubles away with the SlapChop
Join Date: 11-15-07Posts: 2,265SBR Points: 0
Baylor two weeks ago playing at Colorado. Line is at -4....Public goes over 90% on Baylor...Almost everybody on this site gets on it...Line moves to -3...everybody stays on it though we cant figure out line movement... Baylor wins easy (ask and Ill show you the thread)....I cashed 5 units.....I'll play "trap games" again.....No big deal...this one today lost....who cares
Last edited by awhitejackson; 03-14-08 at 08:26 PM.
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03-14-08 08:27 PM #32
Its fine to say I told you so but some of it borders on arrogance. This not directed at any one person but I see a couple posters here who take all the credit for their good picks and never mention their bad ones.
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03-14-08 08:30 PM #33
Nothings a guarantee man. Originally Posted by awhitejackson
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03-14-08 08:31 PM #34Slappin troubles away with the SlapChop
Join Date: 11-15-07Posts: 2,265SBR Points: 0
Damn right...I still love this month! Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans
Nothings a guarantee man.
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03-15-08 12:40 AM #35
Same here. There's nothing else quite like it. Originally Posted by awhitejackson
Damn right...I still love this month!
BOL to you guys, and thanks for all the insight. I've learned a lot on here this season.
Getting my butt kicked lately.
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