[curious]

I stopped posting these because I was experimenting with a new filter. These picks are using the old filter which has a 70% win rate: This filter is: edge >= 10 and spread NOT > -15 (edge is the difference between the actual line and the projected line using the kenpom stats).
George Mason -10 1/2 Loss
Western Kentucky -3 1/2 (I REALLY like this play) Win
Boise State -12 1/2 Loss
South Alabama -15 Win
Xavier -8 Loss
UC Irvine pk (buy 1 1/2 points) Loss
CS Northridge +5 Push
Murray State +1 1/2 Loss

These picks are using the new filter. The filter is spread > 0 AND edge > 5. This is still an experimental filter so play these because you like them, not because I say so.

Wright State +4 Win
Rhode Island +3 1/2 Win
Arkansas Little Rock +4 Loss
Valparaiso +2 1/2 Loss
Troy +4 1/2 Loss
Utah State +1 1/2 Win
Oregon +9 1/2 Loss
Jacksonville State +13 1/2 Win
Northern Colorado +4 Win

[curious]

Okay, I have said many times that I look at the opening line and the line movements of any play I make and I buy enough points to get the best line that was offered among the major books for that pick. Whenever I don't do this, due to laziness, I pay the price. Like today, George Mason wins by 10, the best line offered today was -10, my book gave me -10 1/2 and I didn't buy the 1/2 point, so what should have been a push is a loss. Also, Boise State, best line offered today was -11, I got -12 1/2. Boise St wins by 12. So, instead of a win I get a loss.

I don't care what the naysayers say, buying points this way works.

[OrionSky]

I totally agree...

[WestsidePete]

Okay, I have said many times that I look at the opening line and the line movements of any play I make and I buy enough points to get the best line that was offered among the major books for that pick. Whenever I don't do this, due to laziness, I pay the price. Like today, George Mason wins by 10, the best line offered today was -10, my book gave me -10 1/2 and I didn't buy the 1/2 point, so what should have been a push is a loss. Also, Boise State, best line offered today was -11, I got -12 1/2. Boise St wins by 12. So, instead of a win I get a loss.

I don't care what the naysayers say, buying points this way works.

I agree curious...last night I took Air Force and bought 1 1/2 pts...had them at +11 1/2...they lose by 11...I won the bet

[WestsidePete]

FYI curious...if you bought 3 pts on all those plays the following would have been winners instead of 4 turning into losers and 1 push
george mason
boise st
uc irvine
cs northridge
valparaiso

[gizmo2431]

bad day on those picks, but i don't think you can knock the system going off of just one day. everyone has a bad day at some point. it's if the bad days stay consistent, but from past threads i've read it was working!!

[curious]

bad day on those picks, but i don't think you can knock the system going off of just one day. everyone has a bad day at some point. it's if the bad days stay consistent, but from past threads i've read it was working!!

dude, the favs are > 70% and the dogs are > 80%

[curious]

bad day on those picks, but i don't think you can knock the system going off of just one day. everyone has a bad day at some point. it's if the bad days stay consistent, but from past threads i've read it was working!!

7-9-1 is a bad day? You never lost 2 games net in one day before? We should follow you!

[curious]

FYI curious...if you bought 3 pts on all those plays the following would have been winners instead of 4 turning into losers and 1 push
george mason
boise st
uc irvine
cs northridge
valparaiso

I noticed that. I am going to go back through my records and see what my win-loss ratio is if I add 3 points to each line. I think the win-loss ratio is going to go way up because it seems like I have a lot of close games. But that could be that I just remember the close ones more. Know what I mean?

[curious]

if wishes were fishes.....

curious have you played this system more than one year? i suspect that it will work its best during the same part of each year. what part of this year did it peak?

I started posting these plays a month ago or maybe six weeks ago, the win loss ratio is > 70%. Having a small loss on days with lots of plays is typical. Not sure why. When I have only a few plays I usually sweep the board.

[gizmo2431]

7-9-1 is a bad day? You never lost 2 games net in one day before? We should follow you!

ive lost more than my fair share... maybe my words came out wrong... not a bad day, but not a winning day.

[gizmo2431]

dude, the favs are > 70% and the dogs are > 80%

... and i know, i spent a few hours reading ur past threads on the system and reviewing it and learning how the pythag sys works so i would know for myself as opposed to just riding someones plays. i like to have reason to my madness =]

[curious]

... and i know, i spent a few hours reading ur past threads on the system and reviewing it and learning how the pythag sys works so i would know for myself as opposed to just riding someones plays. i like to have reason to my madness =]

In one of the posts I posted one of my excel spreadsheets which has some of my formulas. I don't remember which post, but it is out there.

[gizmo2431]

In one of the posts I posted one of my excel spreadsheets which has some of my formulas. I don't remember which post, but it is out there.

oh snap, im gonna take a look around for it through ur posts later this evening... i've been using excel and basically inputing the data myself each day, but i'd still like to see your spread sheet to see if you have a more simplified way than i do... especially given that i have a broken wrist so it gets a bit time consuming one handed pecking the damn keyboard!

[curious]

oh snap, im gonna take a look around for it through ur posts later this evening... i've been using excel and basically inputing the data myself each day, but i'd still like to see your spread sheet to see if you have a more simplified way than i do... especially given that i have a broken wrist so it gets a bit time consuming one handed pecking the damn keyboard!

YOu can download the data from kenpom's site. http://kenpom.com/stats.php. Import that file into excel into column H. Then go to pointspread.com, right click in the odds table and click "view source". Find the <table> tag which contains the odds data. THen copy and paste that into text pad. Then add <html><body>...</body></html> tags around the <table>....</table> tag. Then click the View menu option and select In Web Browser. Copy and paste the table into microsoft word. You have to clean up the data. Remove the odds and change replace the 1/2 which is a single character with 1/2 typed. Then remove the +. Remove the phrase Matchup Report. You can do all of that with the replace command. Then delete the Over/under, I don't know why they don't offer the spread without the over/under. Now remove all the columns except for the team names and one column containing the spread. If some of the cells in the column you pick have N/A just copy and paste the spread from one of the other columns. You should now have one column with the team names and one column with the spread. Delete the top couple of rows which are not team names and spread.

Now copy and paste these two columns from microsoft word to microsoft excel in column A.

Now you need a vlookup formula in col C that looks up the team name from Col A in the table you imported from kenpom's csv file. IN the vlookup formula return the pythagorean win % value which is the next to last column to the right.

Now in col D you need a formula that subtracts the smaller pythagorean win % from the larger and multiplies the result by -50 for the team with the larger p win % and by 50 for the team with the smaller P win %.

Now in col E put the result of subtracting col D from col B. Col E now contains the spread. In col F put this formula: If(OR(AND(E1>=10, B1>=-15), AND(B1>0, E1>=5)), *, "")

The teams which have an * in col F are your plays. I also look through the edge column to find teams with an edge of 8 or 9 to see if I like any of those after handicapping them.

GL

[gizmo2431]

YOu can download the data from kenpom's site. http://kenpom.com/stats.php. Import that file into excel into column H. Then go to pointspread.com, right click in the odds table and click "view source". Find the tag which contains the odds data. THen copy and paste that into text pad. Then add ... tags around the .... tag. Then click the View menu option and select In Web Browser. Copy and paste the table into microsoft word. You have to clean up the data. Remove the odds and change replace the 1/2 which is a single character with 1/2 typed. Then remove the +. Remove the phrase Matchup Report. You can do all of that with the replace command. Then delete the Over/under, I don't know why they don't offer the spread without the over/under. Now remove all the columns except for the team names and one column containing the spread. If some of the cells in the column you pick have N/A just copy and paste the spread from one of the other columns. You should now have one column with the team names and one column with the spread. Delete the top couple of rows which are not team names and spread.

Now copy and paste these two columns from microsoft word to microsoft excel in column A.

Now you need a vlookup formula in col C that looks up the team name from Col A in the table you imported from kenpom's csv file. IN the vlookup formula return the pythagorean win % value which is the next to last column to the right.

Now in col D you need a formula that subtracts the smaller pythagorean win % from the larger and multiplies the result by -50 for the team with the larger p win % and by 50 for the team with the smaller P win %.

Now in col E put the result of subtracting col D from col B. Col E now contains the spread. In col F put this formula: If(OR(AND(E1>=10, B1>=-15), AND(B1>0, E1>=5)), *, "")

The teams which have an * in col F are your plays. I also look through the edge column to find teams with an edge of 8 or 9 to see if I like any of those after handicapping them.

GL

i follow for the most part... however, when you put in ur vlookup formula do u do a EXACT match look up ? if so, what do u do for the team names that differ from pointspread and kenpom? manual input?

[curious]

i follow for the most part... however, when you put in ur vlookup formula do u do a EXACT match look up ? if so, what do u do for the team names that differ from pointspread and kenpom? manual input?

Modify them by hand. I wrote some vb macros that do it automatically. Modify them a few times by hand and you will see what things have to be changed, then write a vb macro to do it automatically.

[hoyas2007]

curious,

Two questions for you: when you say to go to pointspread.com and then right click in the "odds table" - where is this odds table? I am looking at pointspread.com and I don't see anything that says "odds table" or that says "view source."

Also, if you are trying to back test a model, how would you go about doing that? I see on http://kenpom.com/stats.php that you can download the most recent stats, so I see how this would be helpful during the season - you could download the stats each day and plug them into your model and run it each day... But if I want to test some theories by looking at past games, how can I do that? Can I download kenpom's data from prior dates as well, or are the current statistics all that is available?

Thanks a lot. This was a really helpful post, I really appreciate it.