[Illusion]

Share your best bets for Thursday.

Good luck everybody!

[tab]

Share your best bets for Thursday.

Good luck everybody!

This is the first conference game in the sun belt conference for both Troy and South Alabama. I find the spread somewhat inflated in this game. Last year South Alabama was favored by 11.5 points at home and lost to South Alabama 92-88. The reason why South Alabama is favored by 15.5 points in this game is that they are 6-1 ATS this season and 3-0 at home. This spread is quite inflated and that is a lot of points for a conference game. Seems like the oddsmakers do not want South Alabama to cover the spread in this game and that is why the spread is set so high. In the least 4 games between these schools, Troy won one meeting 92-88 and South Alabama won the other three meetings by the following scores (75-64 in Jan 07, 66-52 in Feb 06 and 88-84 in Jan 06). In the last 4 meetings, the biggest margin of victory by SOuth Alabama was 14 points. I really do not that Troy will win this game but will keep it close. I have noticed that when teams have really good ATS records, eventually the spread for those teams does become inflated. Does anyone have any opinion on this game. I never say that I am right on any game so I do appreciate feedback. ANd good luck everyone.

[Illusion]

Wednesday 12/19/07 Results:

Irish Lumberjack: 5-3-1 +5.10
EaglesPhan36: 2-1 +1.90
tab: 1-0 +1.00
LT Profits: 1-1 +0.45
ertl09: 0-1 -1.10
kdmfox: 1-2 -1.20
onlòóker: 0-2 -2.00
Tigers1230: 0-2-1 -2.20
louisvillekid: 0-3 -3.30
manny24: 0-3 -3.30
raydog: 1-4 -3.40
regularguy: 0-3 -4.40
perhapsnot: 1-4 -4.50
awhitejackson: 2-6 -5.65
KidDynamite: 7-13 -7.30
sweethook: 0-3 -7.70

*Parlays and teasers not reflected in grading*

If you spot a grading error please send me a private message.

[KidDynamite]

Mississippi -7.5 vs Depaul
Murray St -2 vs Samford
Washington St -31.5 vs The Citadel
Arkansas St -6.5 vs FL Atlantic
Troy +16 vs So Alabama
SE Miss St -4 vs Jacksonville St
Montana +5.5 vs CS Full
Furman +8.5 vs No Arizona
Penn -3.5 vs Elon
Miami OH +9.5 vs Illinois
also
Utah St -9 vs Utah Valley St

[tab]

Mississippi -7.5 vs Depaul
Murray St -2 vs Samford
Washington St -31.5 vs The Citadel
Arkansas St -6.5 vs FL Atlantic
Troy +16 vs So Alabama
SE Miss St -4 vs Jacksonville St
Montana +5.5 vs CS Full
Furman +8.5 vs No Arizona
Penn -3.5 vs Elon
And when the spread is posted most likey
Miami OH over Illinois

I saw that you were 7-13 yesterday because you had too many predictions. I was 1-0 and hopefully today I will be 1-0 with Troy +16. On any given day you can go 10-0 or 9-1 but you can also go 0-10 or 1-9. I only pick one game and become way more selective this way. There are way too many games to decide from to go 1-0. If you bet parlays, you diminish your chances to win. You can win more by doubling each bet each day. You bet $110 to win $100 on your first bet (day 1). ON day 2, bet $210 to win 190. On day 3, bet $400 to win 360 and exc. LEts say you would bet $100 4 team parlay to win a $1050, you can lose this parlay by losing just one game by going 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 or 0-4. If you make 1 bet each day with your best pick and by doubling down for 4 days in a row, you will win more money than a parlay. You will end up making your bookie very happy when you bet this many games either separately or on a parlay. If you do go 1-0 for 10 days in a row, you record on this forum will be looking really good. This is about percentages and you want to be above 70%.

I made my only prediction for Thursday. I am going for Troy +16 points. You should look at my reasoning why I am going with Troy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonzaga ML +120
New Orleans -12
New Orleans/La.Tech Over 128.5
Georgia -9

[KidDynamite]

I saw that you were 7-13 yesterday because you had too many predictions. I was 1-0 and hopefully today I will be 1-0 with Troy +16. On any given day you can go 10-0 or 9-1 but you can also go 0-10 or 1-9. I only pick one game and become way more selective this way. There are way too many games to decide from to go 1-0. If you bet parlays, you diminish your chances to win. You can win more by doubling each bet each day. You bet $110 to win $100 on your first bet (day 1). ON day 2, bet $210 to win 190. On day 3, bet $400 to win 360 and exc. LEts say you would bet $100 4 team parlay to win a $1050, you can lose this parlay by losing just one game by going 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 or 0-4. If you make 1 bet each day with your best pick and by doubling down for 4 days in a row, you will win more money than a parlay. You will end up making your bookie very happy when you bet this many games either separately or on a parlay. If you do go 1-0 for 10 days in a row, you record on this forum will be looking really good. This is about percentages and you want to be above 70%.

I made my only prediction for Thursday. I am going for Troy +16 points. You should look at my reasoning why I am going with Troy.

I also went with Troy and the points. I'm trying a new system based on FG% and FT% and that's why I have bet so many games. Saturday I went 17-9, and was on the plus side the next three nights. Last night's debacle has been the only bad night so far. I'm still on the plus side overall. I'm keeping all my stats so I can find what part of the system works best.

[raydog]

you know what bites my ass the most about yesterday is that was one of my favorite looking boards of the year. I AM NOT GOOD. i do realize that a lot of people lost games by 1 and a half here and there but how do we not sniff out the huge trap games??? i know LT does this as good as anyone, i just fell in love with too much shit. lsu,odu,cmu... all got pounded heavy by the bettors and didnt sniff winning. i will do better.

so to start the day off, i would like to play another road favorite.ahahahah

semo -2 1st half
semo -4 (team is getting better at being on the road and jax st. bad year got worse with the announcement that dorien brown(big inside dude) is too fukin stupid to listen to tudors and pass basic classes. bigger rebound adv. and the boys finding their range will get r done here. easy imo.)

troy +15 i like this cus its tabs favorite play and he got LTs approval and that is all i need. similar teams that have played each other tight in the past. very similar lineups as last years teams as well.

duke -3 1st half. just riding the trend here. havent been able to set the first half line high enough for the pukies to not cover yet this year. (will ride duke 1st half and memphis 2nd half all season fwiw)

adding
miami oh +10
ole miss -7 neutral court and depaul is godawful away from home

[perhapsnot]

Duke -5
Troy +14.5 (tab's pick...although lower number now)
Clemson -32.5
Elon +3 (2 units)


And yes, i've sent out emails to these teams apologizing in advance for what may befall them tonight.

[raydog]

illusion, can you delete phn's thread on lsu from yesterday. everytime i see it, i get teary eyed and my ass starts to get tender from the reaming most of us took by the gumbo eater fukers. makes me wonder if i can ever pick a winner again.

[LT Profits]

Elon +3
Jacksonville State +5.5

[Illusion]

Illinois -10
Pittsburgh +6

(4 units each)

[sonnythekid]

* MIAMI (oh) (+10)
* MIAMI (oh) (+450)

* LOUISIANA TECH (+12)
* LOUISIANA TECH (+670)








5 * units each
GL and have a great day !

[regularguy]

At least we aren't all betting on the same teams today. Somebody should have a better day.

1* Duke -5.5
Duke has been impressive. I've got a feeling they're back. Also, I learned something about Pitt in their one-point win at Washington.

1* New Orleans -12.5
New Orleans has been winning some games, and their last win was by a blowout. They rebound and shoot pretty well. La Tech is looking like one of the worst teams in Division I ... last in the WAC ... ranked 335 by Pomeroy. I think New Orleans rolls in this one.

1* St. Mary's -9
I like St. Mary's much longer preparation time (9 days v. 3 days) and their shorter trip to Hawaii. I think they come back strong after a bad loss at Southern Illinois, and dominate Tulane. Not much on Tulane's resume.

Anyway, those are my best picks today, and those are a few of my thoughts, for what they are worth.

Good luck.

[buztah]

SE Mo State ML for 15 units.

[jtnguyen79]

OK -2.5......10 unit

[Cougar Bait]

Illinois/Miami OH over 115

[onlooker]

729 Elon ML +140
732 Samford ML +105
734 Jacksonville State ML +195

[Checkerboard]

Samford Bulldogs +1 1st half (-110 Cris)

[sweethook]

2*oklahoma-3- ,2* citadel +34 ,1*utah st.-8 ,

[perhapsnot]

I'm with Raydog....burn it.

So. Miss -28
Okl -3.5

[raydog]

god semo up 15 at one time and throw it away to barely win..that does me no fuking good and ruined my 4 game par worth 1200. im so tired of these shit teams getting big leads and then getting lazy. some college kids are just lazy. play the way they are raised. sorry for the bad pick guys. cant factor in blowing the huge lead

[Illusion]

Thursday 12/20/07 Results:

sonnythekid: 3-1 +27.50
jtnguyen79: 1-0 +10.00
buztah: 1-0 +10.00
sweethook: 3-0 +5.00
Checkerboard: 1-0 +1.00
Bet The House: 1-0 +1.00
tab: 1-0 +1.00
LT Profits: 1-0-1 +1.00
louisvillekid: 1-0-1 +1.00
awholelottalumps: 1-1 -0.10
raydog: 3-3 -0.30
Illusion: 1-1 -0.40
onlòóker: 1-2 -0.95
perhapsnot: 2-3-1 -1.30
EaglesPhan36: 1-3 -2.30
Irish Lumberjack: 1-3 -2.30
regularguy: 0-3 -3.30
KidDynamite: 4-7 -3.70

*10 unit max per play while grading*

If you spot grading error please send me a private message.