SF Power Ratings

01-21-10 04:51 PM

These are the largest projected victories over the pointspread using Statfox's power ratings and giving 4 points for home field advantage. I'm just curious to see how these do.

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread

l7ustin · 01-21-10 05:03 PM

id like to see this too, thanks for posting

mvp123 · 01-21-10 05:26 PM

that didnt open for me

01-21-10 05:45 PM

Originally Posted by mvp123

that didnt open for me

Hopefully you can see the teams listed. I had saved it as an image first.

Also, there was 38 game matchups for tonight. The 23 above had a difference of 2 pts or more. I don't lnow if anyone has ever tracked it this year or in the past, but I would love to see those past stats.

I'll track it for a little bit and see how it does.

01-22-10 04:05 AM

DAY 1 RESULTS:
Attachment 9825

13-10 overall, but the 3 points and up were a respectable 11-6.
The 3.5s and up went 6-3, and the TOP3 of 4.5 and up went a perfect 3-0.

Will drop the 2.5s and below and see how it goes the next few days.

4.5 and Up: 3-0
3.5 and Up: 6-3
3 and Up: 11-6

l7ustin · 01-22-10 06:54 AM

very cool thank you, i used to always look at this on the matchup analysis on SBRodds.com but i havent seen it recently, where are you gathering the data from?

01-22-10 07:19 AM

Nice run..keep it up...

balls2wall · 01-22-10 08:15 AM

Nice results.

Keep posting them if you don't mind.

thanks

01-22-10 11:49 AM

Thanks guys, doing the numbers now. Getting it straight from the statfox website.

Hopefully, these will show a good winning percentage.

BBROBOZO · 01-22-10 12:41 PM

Great info , i'm so glad that you posted the plays and if you don't mind post all of the games ... I want to see all of the stats, thank you , very much !!!

Powderguy · 01-22-10 01:17 PM

Interesting to see how this does.

01-22-10 01:19 PM

Only 2 make the cut tonight as I'm only going to use 3 pts and above.

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
CANISIUS -2.5 3.5
IDAHO ST -6.5 3.5

Idaho St is still -6.5 across the board, Canisius is mostly 3's right now though, but would still be a play. The 3.5s and up were 6-3 yesterday, I hope it gets 2 more wins tonight!

BBROBOZO, Sorry, wish I read your post a few minutes ago. But you could be right, maybe the 2.5s and under might work out to be be good fades

01-22-10 11:30 PM

Ends up with a 1-1 split.

Canisius won 74-58
Idaho St Loses the cover by half a point, winning by 6, 80-74

4.5 and Up: 3-0
4s: 2-3
3.5s: 2-1
3's: 5-3
Overall: 12-7

01-23-10 09:01 AM

Working on the numbers now....

2daBank · 01-23-10 09:18 AM

this is one of the 1st things i do when capping games....never tracked how well it does on its own just like to use it as a jumpoff point....nice idea though....keep up the good work

01-23-10 10:56 AM

Thanks guys.

Heres Saturday's Picks:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
Attachment 9844

aceking · 01-23-10 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by JerseyShop101

Thanks guys.

Heres Saturday's Picks:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
Attachment 9844

looks interesting , might bet on BYU

01-24-10 03:52 AM

Aceking, I hope you got it at a better number or worst case pushed.

S ALABAMA 9 7 Lost
VIRGINIA TECH -7 6 Lost
BYU -2 5 Push
VILLANOVA -6 5 Won
DAVIDSON -6.5 4.5 Lost
CAL POLY-SLO Pk 4 Won
W KENTUCKY -7 4 Lost
WAKE FOREST -6 4 Won
WASHINGTON ST 2 4 Lost
ARKANSAS ST 4.5 3.5 Lost
BALL ST 6.5 3.5 Won
COLUMBIA 12.5 3.5 Lost
LOUISIANA TECH -6.5 3.5 Lost
MISSISSIPPI ST 1.5 3.5 Lost
TEXAS A&M -9.5 3.5 Lost
UNC-GREENSBORO 1.5 3.5 Lost
UTAH ST -6.5 3.5 Won
MISSOURI -13 3 Won
STANFORD -5 3 Won
WEBER ST -16 3 Won

Terrible Statfox day as it goes 8-11-1.

The only good stat over this 3 day sample that really stands out is Favorites of 10 or more with a projected cover over the spread by minimum 3 points is 5-1. We'll see how it goes.

4.5 and Up: 4-3-1
4s: 4-5
3.5s: 4-7
3's: 8-3
Overall: 20-18-1

01-24-10 06:05 AM

3 plays for Sunday:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
PITTSBURGH +2.5/4
IOWA +6/3
LOUISVILLE -8/3

2daBank · 01-24-10 06:11 AM

jersey do you just go off the opening line? just curious as i think by tipoff Iona will have a 3 point difference there at a 2.5 dif now, only 2 off at opening though

01-24-10 08:40 AM

Originally Posted by 2daBank

jersey do you just go off the opening line? just curious as i think by tipoff Iona will have a 3 point difference there at a 2.5 dif now, only 2 off at opening though

The first day I did, but am now using Bookmaker's lines. I'll stick with them from now on, especially since they are the first to come out with them.

Those half points are so important, I should of tracked from all the past years how many times I've lost due to a half point compared to winning by a half. I'm sure more losses than wins.

01-24-10 01:18 PM

Louisville wins by 8, for the push.

Line moved late to 8.5, and 9s. Hopefully, nobody bet into the bad numbers. I find it hard myself still, to lay off once the better numbers are gone. This game would of been another prime example of that for me. Bookmaker overnight lines is sometimes a good thing.

01-25-10 11:41 AM

Sunday Results:

PITTSBURGH +2.5/4 LOST
IOWA +6/3 WON
LOUISVILLE -8/3 PUSH

4.5 and Up: 4-3-1
4s: 4-6
3.5s: 4-7
3's: 9-3-1
Overall: 21-19-2

01-25-10 11:54 AM

1/26 Monday's Plays:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
SYRACUSE -5.5/ 4.5
W. CAROLINA -7.5/ 3.5
FURMAN -1.5/ 3.5
W. KENTUCKY +6/ 3
MISSOURI +12/ 3

01-25-10 11:56 PM

A good 4-1 night!

(DAY 5)
1/26 Monday's Results:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
SYRACUSE -5.5/ 4.5 WON
W. CAROLINA -7.5/ 3.5 WON
FURMAN -1.5/ 3.5 WON
W. KENTUCKY +6/ 3 WON
MISSOURI +12/ 3 LOST

4.5 and Up: 5-3-1
4s: 4-6
3.5s: 6-7
3's: 10-4-1
Overall: 25-20-2

01-26-10 04:27 PM

I made a mistake yesterday, W. Carolina would of been a no-play. (Looked at Power Rating of Charleston instead of College Of Charleston)

Updated:

4.5 and Up: 5-3-1
4s: 4-6
3.5s: 5-7
3's: 10-4-1
Overall: 24-20-2

01-26-10 04:27 PM

(Day 6)
Tuesday's Plays:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
KENT STATE -13.5/ 4.5
RHODE ISLAND +5/ 4
MARYLAND -8/ 3
NC STATE +1/ 3

01-26-10 08:21 PM

Another 3-0 good start tonight

01-27-10 01:30 AM

(Day 6)
Tuesday's Results:
3-1

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
KENT STATE -13.5/ 4.5 Won
RHODE ISLAND +5/ 4 Won
MARYLAND -8/ 3 Won
NC STATE +1/ 3 Lost

4.5 and Up: 6-3-1
4s: 5-6
3.5s: 5-7
3's: 11-5-1
Overall: 27-21-2 (54%)
7-3-1 in last 3 days (70%)

Standout stat: Picks which were Favorites of 10 or more are now: 6-1 (86%)

2daBank · 01-27-10 01:33 AM

you keep that up jersey im gonna have to start playing more big spreads i always kinda look past those...nice work

dchecks · 01-27-10 02:25 AM

I've been keeping an eye on your plays since you started this thread, looks like it's all comin together! Good job and Good luck!!

01-27-10 04:15 AM

Thanks Guys!

Going over the ratings and the overnight lines at Bookmaker, this is what I have:

(DAY 7)
Wednesday's Plays:

Team/Line/Projected Cover Amount Over Spread
BOWLING GREEN +3.5/ 5.5
VILLANOVA -11/ 3
BYU +1/ 3
WYOMING +3/ 3
TEXAS TECH +17.5/ 3
NEBRASKA +4/ 3

Our top 3:

Bowling Green +3.5, Power ratings have Bowling Green (9-8) to defeat Eastern Michigan (10-8) outright by 2, the 3.5 points make it a projected cover over the spread by 5.5 points. Our 4.5s and up are 6-3-1 (67%).

Villanova -11, Our Standout stat of Picks which are favorites of 10 or more are 6-1 (86%). We'll see if this nice run continues as Villanova (18-1) goes for its 10th straight win. Notre Dame (15-5) already has 2 double digit losses this month, losing to Connecticut (13-6) and Syracuse (20-1) and this looks to be their 3rd.

BYU +1, Currently a pick at most books, but +1 at Bookmaker. BYU (20-1), has a 15 game winning streak on the line as they play at New Mexico. New Mexico (18-3), are 12-1 at home. BYU is led by Jimmer Fredette who is scoring 20.2 pts per game. I also like the stat that (supposedly) 64% of the public is currently on New Mexico in this game.

Proj Cover Amt Over Spread:
4.5 and Up: 6-3-1
4s: 5-6
3.5s: 5-7
3's: 11-5-1
Overall: 27-21-2 (54%)
7-3-1 in last 3 days (70%)

2daBank · 01-27-10 04:39 AM

off the top of my head i havnt even started yet (busy watchin tennis) but id say byu will probably get dumped off my card as that 1 of the 1s that i think is screamin for byu money....nova sounds good

2daBank · 01-27-10 04:40 AM

ND defense is so bad wouldnt surprise me if nova scored 90+

01-27-10 05:02 AM

Thanks 2daBank!

Tennis? Whats that? lol I've honestly never bet a tennis match, especially since I heard players can "quit" in the middle of a match. With my luck, Id have a huge favorite that would quit.

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