[RetardStrength]

Been doing HORRIBLE in football (coll & NFL) recently, but I've been in the green with college bball...

I'd like to start posting 1 play per day, typically a .5 unit or 1 unit play, and keep track of how I do. Tail or fade, best of luck...


Tues 12/28/12

Clemson -5 @ HOME vs. Purdue

I like the pace Clemson plays at, and given they are at home with a 7pm game, I expect the Tigers to come out blazing. Purdue is no easy foe, however they've given up a few recent games to teams I'd consider "faster paced" in Or St and Nova. Clemson plays tough D and while Purdue averages in the high 60's point-wise, I expect Clemson to keep their total lower than that tonight.

Final Score... 66-56 Clemson Tigers

This is a 1 unit Play

BOL

[RetardStrength]

Well I start my thread 0-1. I learned later in the day that Jennings was out, and instead of doing the "smart" thing I let it ride, believing Clemson would still play this team close.

Anyways, onto the next one...

Take LaSalle -4 @ Rider.

I see this as the first "real" home test for Rider. They haven't played anyone with the ability that LaSalle has at home to date... Yes, they've put up good points against a couple measly squads recently, but those games were still close. I think they ride their recent small win streak at home with a little too much comfort, and LaSalle rides a very nice, overtime, confidence boosting win over what some might consider a "hometown rival" that never was in Villanova, being that Nova has always been a team LaSalle can't even compete with in the Philadelphia area...

LaSalle -4 1 unit

YTD Record 0-1 (1) unit

BOL

[RetardStrength]

1-1 EVEN

Play for Friday Night:
Small card tonight but I like the Orange Men to cover 7.5 in Arkansas. I wouldn't consider Arkansas a "bad" team, but I'd consider Syracuse a "smarter" team that is finding some exceptional balance this year, as opposed to last year when there were "too many stars(or so they thought they were)" on that team.
This is the SEC/Big East Challenge, and I think Syracuse would like to make a statement about who they are. You don't hear much buzz about them, even though they are ranked at 6. Much more talk about schools with worse rankings!!!

My play
Syracuse -7.5 @ Arkansas - 1 unit

**I Know there isn't much value in terms of creating a bank roll in playing one game a night. I don't play one game a night. I make other plays, but I wanted to make a thread tracking what I believe to be my "one confident college bball play" of the evening. Doing it merely to keep track, and should you tail or fade, BOL!!!

[uncynd]

def a solid strat if you effectively adjust your unit sizes, something I am personally terrible at.

[RetardStrength]

2-1 +1 unit
Actually had a great night last night... Hit a 3 teamer with NBA and covered both dogs in NCAA football... But, talking about postless bets is neither here nor there..

My (posted) play for Saturday...

Creighton giving 5.5 to St Joe's. Plain and simple, I see them getting their shit back together at home, against what is not a very strong St Joe's squad... Creighton will outshoot SJ, and will "pace" this game and should win by DD... Nothing more needed to say...

Creighton -5.5 1 Unit

BOL

[RetardStrength]

3-1 +2 Units...

Easy win for Creighton... Didn't make any plays yesterday, but liked Wisconsin as well as Wyoming... whadya know...

Very small card for today.. Almost seems silly to make a play at all, but there is one game popping out at me... USC is a "good" team this year, and their schedule so far, no joke... Yes, buried by Illinois but after winning 2 snoozers and then facing a squad like that in your first real test, I'm not surprised at the result. Nice OT win against Texas, and kept it close against 2 very powerful squads in Marquette and San Diego St... Now they travel to Nebraska... A team that has played a couple joke games, and some mediocre squads... No real "test" yet. USC comes in with a bigger desire to win. Nebraska hosting an out of conference team, and I just don't see them "caring" about this PAC-12 opponent, as they would another Big10 opponent coming into their house. I don't like that USC is favored, but 2 points is close enough to give the play some value, and I'm going to hold out for line movement closer to game time, as the public is all over the Home Squad...

My play
USC - 2(could be edited to reflect later line) @ Nebraska - 1 unit

BOL

[RetardStrength]

3-2 +1 Unit
Ugly play yesterday... Nebraska came out firing, shot the ball very well. Surprised me to say the least. USC outmatched.

Oh well, onto the next one...

Georgia Tech - 7 @ HOME vs Georgia

Love these in state rivalries, and I feel like that is the only reason this line is not reflecting double-digits. I'm not going to call G Tech's win "impressive" but I'm going to call Georgia's play through the start of the season absolutely unimpressive... G Tech will control the pace at home, and Georgia is not a team that shoots exceptionally well, especially from beyond the arch. While I can't see a blowout, I see a dd win for tech.

Ga Tech - 7 - 1 Unit

BOL

[haserfauld]

Good luck tonight, man!

Being from the LA area and tracking USC, they are definite fade material. I might take them as home dogs against an otherwise even team, but we've been garbage so far. I've made a decent amount fading them this season!

[RetardStrength]

Good luck tonight, man!

Being from the LA area and tracking USC, they are definite fade material. I might take them as home dogs against an otherwise even team, but we've been garbage so far. I've made a decent amount fading them this season!

I was surprised. I guess I didn't "expect" Nebraska to come out the way they did. Not to mention they shot exceptionally well from the 3 point line. 65%(11) on 17 attempts is no joke... You look at these games and you pick an angle. In my case, I picked Nebraska to play flat, and USC to play hard, all the while knowing Nebraska IS the better team... The exact opposite happened, and it showed on the scoreboard...

A foolish bet on my part, forcing the play...

College bball is typically easier to angle than the NBA simply because the games mean so much more to the individuals playing them, in early season play... That being said, I'm confident I can bounce back and make some good plays...

[RetardStrength]

4-2 +2 Units

Ga Tech "in control" the entire game, only to slip up a little towards the end. Covered, but too close for comfort...

I love today's card. A lot of games, and some great match ups to angle... Although my history proves otherwise, I DO NOT only bet favs. My "posted plays" are confident plays, and in this, you will often find a favored team picked. Again, these are not my only plays, but a single play I analyze to the fullest, and provide as a "solid" play for the day.

As I look at the card, there are several games that pop out at me, but I keep coming back to Florida-Florida St. I enjoy an in state rivalry, because it typically guarantees both teams will play hard. Florida is putting together a very nice early season. More importantly than their offensive production, or even the offensive production of Fl St, is the defensive production of both squads. Florida is one of the better defensive teams in the country right now, and Fl St is simply allowing their opponents to score too easily and too often... The defensive end of this match up is absolutely lop-sided, and Fl St is no scoring powerhouse... On top of that, some recent let downs is not going to motivate them here, and instead may prove to dismantle them further against this Florida team, even if they are at home...

My play: Florida -6 @ Florida St - 1 unit

BOL

[RetardStrength]

5-2 +3 Units

What did I say about Florida's defense??? Embarrassed and exposed just how awful Fl St truly is...

Today's (Thurs) card is more than ugly. I've honestly been thinking about it and I'm having a difficult time coming up with a play. I want to lean Nebraska at home, but I'm wondering if Nebraska maintains the same "firepower" they displayed recently, and I wonder how well they play against such a well disciplined squad like Creighton... The line is right where it should be, considering Creighton's record @ Nebraska (haven't won there since 2004) but this is a different Creighton team. Again, the ONLY reason this line isn't DD is where they are playing. It could be a moot point, as Creighton is the much better team overall, trying to climb their way to the top 10 and put the atrocity of that somewhat recent rout handed to them by Boise St in the past of their minds and everyone elses. What better way to do so than to come into Nebraska and pound them???

Ugh, all that being said, I can't bring myself to pull the trigger with them as a posted play... I will wait, see what my book offers the line at, vs where I see it online, and will make a play then or no play at all. Creighton should win, but by 8+??? 100% dependent on Nebraska FG% and even more so, 3pt FG % (which has been very impressive).

So, a posted play...
As much as I wanted to find a dog for today, there are 2 fav's I am leaning, and one has a more favorable line...

Providence is playing at home against what I would consider a "weaker" Rhode Island team. This is a match up of 2 very good guards, in Munford (RI) vs Cotton (PR) and I give the edge to Cotton. This kid is a sharp shooter. Providence scores more, and they play better defense. They are a better shooting team overall and their shot selection is "smarter" than Rhode Island. Attribute much of this to coaching... They rebound well, they pass well, again, all things attributable to coaching. This tells me the coaching matchup is also in Providences' favor. All that being said, on their home court, they look to roll this Rhode Island team... I see a DD win here.

My Play: Providence -4.5 vs Rhode Island - 1 unit

BOL

[dkthrilla33]

cotton is out...but i still like providence.

[RetardStrength]

cotton is out...but i still like providence.

Hmm. Thanks for this. I read him as "questionable." I was expecting him to play... I think the line is reflecting him not playing...

I am still leaning Providence as they are all around a better team, but they are a little beat up and broken without Cotton, Council, Dunn, and an ineligible Johnson...

Perfect opportunity for RI to sneak out a win (in state rivalry)... If this game weren't at Providence, I'd back off.

I'm gonna maintain the play. I still like them defensively and coaching wise... It could burn me like the Clemson play, but this is a long season, so let's ride it!!

[RetardStrength]

6-2 +4 Units

Cotton Played and Providence took care of biz, as expected...

No plays tonight. Card is ugly. Long day tomorrow.

BOL

[RetardStrength]

Great Card today

Some of what appear to be "easy picks."

I'm gonna pick a dog today... I've watched West Va play this year and I love Huggins but this team is what I'd consider a "loose cannon." They can certainly go off, and they've shown sparks of strong play, but this is a "younger" team and their shot selection is questionable at best. They haven't really "handled" some of their easier games on the schedule in this early season, and I understand the Big 12 is no joke... I think Huggins consistently struggles with the overall intelligence of his young guys, and this is reflected in their shot selection, and overall field goal %.

Virginia Tech averages A LOT of points, and they are coming off a very impressive 10 point win over a very strong Ok St team. I think getting 7.5 pts, albeit on the road, is still a gift. I love the hokies to cover, and maybe even win this game. I'd lean a money line play for small dollars.

My play for the day: Va Tech +7.5 @ West Va - 1 Unit

BOL

[Pickem2win]

Im suprised that Illinois +11.5 isnt your play of the day. Gonzaga is a great team but thats just too many points to lay against an undefeated Illinois team.

[RetardStrength]

Im suprised that Illinois +11.5 isnt your play of the day. Gonzaga is a great team but thats just too many points to lay against an undefeated Illinois team.

There are a lot of potential great plays today. I took a long look at that game and to me, Illinois is overrated. They've yet to prove much to me even without dropping a game to date and gonzaga is coming off a real tough road win against a "good" wash st team. DD seems like a lot here, but gonzaga is absolutely capable of rolling over them.

I went with v tech because I just can't convince myself this game won't be close, come down to the wire, and possibly see the dog win this one outright

[RetardStrength]

7-2 +5 Units

All around a great day. Some really great games to watch. I'm glad my posted play of the day was one of the better games. I honestly thought V Tech would squeak it out but just couldn't get it done!!! The fact is, they covered, and that's what matters most.

I've been eying today's card. It is more than ugly. The Creighton line seems extremely low, and they are at home. May or may not have a play today...

[RetardStrength]

Took a hiatus from posted plays as I don't get on a computer much outside of work. Hate posting from my phone. I'll try to do a better job for those that care, and may have smaller write-ups when posting from the phone...

Some decent games today. I like a few different angles, but one is sticking out a little to me...

Colorado goes on the road tonight, 4 days after getting trounced by Kansas. If you take a peak at their record, they have some impressive wins, early in their season. They struggle just as every team does, but overall, they are certainly a better team overall. I'd compare Wash St directly to Colorado talent wise (truthfully Colorado is a better team than Wash St), and Fresno St dropped that game by almost DD's... There are a few good shooters on this Fresno St team, but they will have to be on fire to hang with Colorado, since they do not rebound well, and I'm already doubting the "on fire" based on their YTD FG %...

My play is Colorado -3 @ Fresno St - 1 Unit

BOL

[Louisvillekid1]

gl pal

[RetardStrength]

gl pal

Your thoughts?

I follow your thread. Keep up the great work!

[Louisvillekid1]

I liked the buffs at first , but i want to see them play well on the road first .

[RetardStrength]

I liked the buffs at first , but i want to see them play well on the road first .

Great point... I think there was a lot of expectation for that Kansas game, and they got absolutely waxed... This is a spot where they can look to hammer a team that is not on the same level as them offensively, as well as defensively, and put Kansas where it belongs, in the past... I personally love them lining up this team, on the road, after that loss. I think if there is a game they look to get that first W on the road, and establish a little road presence, it starts tonight

[RetardStrength]

8-2 +6 Units

I tailed the game and thought an easy cover, only to see Col allow Fresno back into the game late... Much closer than it should have been.

So this weeks card has been total shit. Most of these games suck. Tonight is no exception, but I do like one or two. My posted play for today is Wichita St to win outright in Tennessee. Consider this play a little dangerous, certainly. You have somewhat of a "no name" team traveling to a struggling "bigger name" basketball school in the SEC. I mean seriously, who is Wichita St?? Wichita St is a team with a great coach playing EXTREMELY well to date, especially on the defensive end... Not to mention they are averaging within the top 100 points wise in college bball right now. Combine the defensive effort, with a STRUGGLING Vols offense, and I see a win here. I expect a hard fought game, a lot of effort defensively from both sides, but I think Wichita St comes in here with much more to prove. Tenn is a little lost at the moment. They are not averaging a lot of points and when you watch them play, it seems they are absolutely lost offensively. They have no real "plan." Maybe it's the "new" coaching staff there?? Don't get me wrong, they have a couple strong players, especially in Stokes, but expect Carl Hall to do a good job containing him, and Wich St has a returning 7 footer who will certainly interject well in the defense.

If the Vols continue to struggle to find their "stroke" I see them losing here. Both teams has snoozers coming up, so this will be a meaningful game tonight.

My Play: Wich St +1 @ Tenn - 1 Unit

BOL

[Louisvillekid1]

LEts get it, nice win last night!

[RetardStrength]

LEts get it, nice win last night!

[RetardStrength]

8-3 +5 Units YTD

I gotta say... I don't like to complain about refs, but the 2nd half and especially the end of that game last night was honestly deplorable... Undeniably lop-sided performance by the refereeing staff, resulting in a close, hard fought "good" game turning into a blowout at the very end. A total heart breaker for those of us who backed wich st, as they honestly had a great shot to win and cover... I won't fully credit the refs for the loss, as there was certainly some breakdown in offensive production by the Shockers, and an increased FG% for the Vols after very poor efforts their last few games.

Luckily for me, some late money on Wash and Idaho St with a backdoor cover made for an overall positive night, but this thread is about posted plays, and posted plays ONLY!!!!

So onto today's card. It is small, but has some good value...

I hate to go back to back nights playing a road dog (Wich St ended up a 2.5 dog by tipoff) but I see good value in UCF traveling to an Old Dominion team that is completely lost. If you look at strength of schedule, yes, we can all agree ODU has played much better teams, but they also have a couple bad losses, and they struggle offensively, plain and simple. This kid Keith Clanton is proving to be a real strong piece to UCF's offense, as well as a rebounding machine. I find ODU struggling to match up with this kid... If UCF continues to take "good" shots and put up the ~70 pts they are averaging, they win this game by DD easily.

Now, I respect the angles... UCF looking ahead to Miami... Road dog... "6" points... I'm sorry but when I angle, I don't put too much weight on these types of things. This is college ball... I look at matchups. I look at how these teams are fairing and where they are struggling. Yes, it is certainly difficult to play on the road, but I think UCF gets it done tonight. They may be looking ahead to Miami, but ODU's strength of schedule makes them an opponent teams like UCF want to bury. A burial here boosts overall ranking, and proves that UCF is playing to their potential, and can match up well with some of the stronger schools in their near future.

My Play: UCF -5.5 @ ODU - 1 Unit

BOL

[Ekcol]

Nice writeup

[RetardStrength]

8-4 +4 Units YTD

Ugh pointless layup to ruin the cover, after controlling the whole game. It happens

No write up today. Lots of plays.

TWO UNIT PLAY

SMU -1 @ Rhode Island - 2 Units

BOL

[RetardStrength]

8-5 +2 Units...

Ugh is the only way to describe the poor effort of SMU at Rhode Island... A measly 50 points...? What a horrendous play.

Moving along. I like todays card. I'm actually gonna go right back to SMU, except I'm going to take this opportunity to fade the shit out of them, after that performance at Rhode Island... So you're telling me this same SMU team is going to travel to Utah and hang with one of the better shooting teams in the country right now? I'm not buying it... This line has a ton of value at 6. Utah will out-rebound SMU, so don't expect many second chance opportunities. SMU better come in guns blazing, or they get rolled here... Utah coming off a tough hard fought loss to BYU, I think they look to re-gain a little steam against a team with a decent record, that already beat them once in a very poor effort on the road. I'm not going to angle "revenge" in this spot, but I like them to re-evaluate what went wrong in their first match-up, and get the W tonight. Utah is the better team here, plain and simple. I think, if anything, a strong win is a must in prep for Cal St Northridge, a VERY strong team in the Big West right now.

While this could prove foolish, I'm making this a 3 unit play...

My play: Utah -6 hosting SMU - 3 Unit Play

BOL

[Louisvillekid1]

gl, i thought all your plays were going to be 1 unit?


Bring home utah pal!

[RetardStrength]

gl, i thought all your plays were going to be 1 unit?


Bring home utah pal!

They were... LOL. Trying a little money management here. Lost 2u on SMU, looking to bounce back with an increased unit play, and then will revert back to 1 unit plays in the future...

[Louisvillekid1]

Long season no reason to chase....

[RetardStrength]

Long season no reason to chase....

Very, very true... I will leave it as is for tonight, and revert to old system after.

BOL to you Lkid! I "like" the Richmond play I'm just nervous about what Kans can potentially do to them.

I see a lot of value in some dogs tonight so I hope you are spot on with this one!!

[2daBank]

like utes as well, just been waiting to see where line bottoms out at,,, figure plenty of ppl will look at smu beating them not long ago and take the points, think if i see a -5 i will go ahead and play....