[rjp322]

Has anyone looked at tomorrow yet? Any chance of there being some plays?

[Heandog]

no plays tommorrow monday

[Dutch]

Across the street Kine Pro says this:



HERE ARE THE NEW SYSTEM PARAMETERS:
Bet against any team:
That Is Kenpom #165 or worse
That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite
That is at home and always has "lined" games (includes Summit)

"Brief" explanation:
First, let me say that even though the "pre-system" and "system" combined are over 55 games over .500 in the past 2 and a half years, people are always trying to "improve" the system or "explain" why a system game loses. For every one time the system loses with a team ranked between 180-200, there is another one time the system loses with a team ranked between 260-280, for every one time the system loses with a team favored by 7, there is another one time the system loses with a team favored by 15.

The only significant common trend of the system losses is with teams/games that are "bet into" the 6.5+ range when opening below that number. There are numerous explanations for this, but its really not important right now, what is important is that this minor tweak to avoid these particular system losses makes the system a little less "simple." For sake of simplicity, the "opening number" is the first number you are able to bet the NIGHT BEFORE the game in question.

Next, the kenpom number has dropped because there are more mediocre teams in college hoops this season (of course this is a subjective statement and you can use many different methods to prove/disprove this opinion). My main reason for the drop in Kenpom ranking for the season and my belief that there are more mediocre teams in NCAA this year is how volatile the rankings are this season. Take, for instance, Cal Poly this season. On Jan 26th (just over three weeks ago), they were Kenpom ranked 86 and now, on Feb 19th, they are 180! North Texas was ranked 240 on January 1st, now, just over six weeks later (and multiple suspensions mind you), they are ranked 156. This is also good for us because teams that get hot will more quickly move out of the range of a system play and teams that play poorly will drop into the system more readily as well.

[Dutch]

Here are the important things to know:
1. I don't like systems, I think they are for lazy people and for people who are unskilled at researching and knowing the game of basketball. That being said, this is, by far, the most successful and simple college basketball system I have ever seen or heard of so I would be crazy to not at least consider making all the system plays. Just realize that we will be betting on a few dozen of the same super crappy teams over the next two weeks (but that is the reason why it is still winning, even when people know the system is hitting, they still have a hard time betting on the Citadel's and Canisius' of the world). If you decide to bet the system plays (or even the "old" system or some variation you design for yourself), bet ALL of the plays and don't handicap them at all or you will find a dozen (or more) reasons to not bet it.

2. I fully expect this system to win LESS than the previous two seasons despite these adjustments. The freaking system went 37-10 the first year, I don't think it will ever come close to those numbers again for as long as I live. I do, however, believe it will make money. You only need to look as far as the past few weeks to see why it won't be as successful. There are MANY more people betting dogs these days. A conservative estimate is about 60-80% of the games that have opened in the past few weeks with a line of 6 or higher involving lower-ranked teams HAS BEEN BET DOWN NOT UP. The advantage we had two years ago (and even further back than that) is that even though the lines for terrible teams were clearly "off," those lines would CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER. Just last week, there was a line that I made at -16, the line opened at -13.5 AND WENT DOWN, that is unheard of and will hurt the profitability of the system to be sure.

3. If a line opens at +11 and you don't bet it and then you check it right before tipoff and its +8, I can tell you two things: First, yes it is still a system play and secondly, you are an idiot if you bet it. The line has lost all value and just because it "fits" the system parameters doesn't mean you should still bet it, you should start locking in lines the night before. Also, about a week ago, Toledo was a 6.5 pt dog and qualified for a pre-system play, I also liked it for myself when I capped it and by tipoff it was +9 so I added another unit and they won the game straight up. I'm not a profit of line movement and can tell you that I would rather grab a line .5 pts too soon, than 1-2 pts too late. Amazon.com forgot to ship me my crystal ball so its pointless to ask me what I think the line will do, if this season is any indication, it will probably move down (away from us).

5. Lastly, and most importantly, I published the system on this site (much to the anger and dismay of many people) to be used as a GUIDELINE for the types of games and teams you should look to bet on so that you have an advantage. These will be my third consecutive season of making a significant profit in college hoops and I can tell you that using the "principles" of the system is the main reason why. This doesn't mean that I never bet favorites or home teams, its just to say that I'm looking for value in different places than most bettors.

Take tomorrow, February 20th for example. Kenpom ranked 153 St. Johns is at home against Depaul and a 5.5 pt favorite. This doesn't fit either parameter of the system, but right away I am looking for reasons why St. John's won't cover that line. Now after digging, maybe I will like St. John's (doubt it), Depaul (maybe), or no-play it (most likely). But I am letting the system principles guide me in the "angle" that I look at the game. Also, take Kenpom ranked 249 Miss Valley St who is at home and a 7.5 pt favorite (already down from 9.5 and it still isn't even up on 5dimes for me to bet) over Texas Southern (no this isn't a system play because they play in a conference that doesn't have regularly lined games). When I begin to look at this game I'm going to try to find reasons why MVSU isn't going to cover this game. Next, I'm going to have to determine if the "value" has already been lost from the line at 7.5. Lastly, if it continues to drop, now I must consider MVSU as a possible play because of everyone betting Texas Southern.

Now, to all of you who came into this thread and posted "Can someone explain this system?" or "What are the system plays?" I say:

"READ THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF, YOU LAZY NUMBNUTS" (emphasis mine)

Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together

[rjp322]

Can someone tell me where I can find exactly what conferences qualify? Also is there a quick way to look these up or do you just have to look at the games being played and then look on the Kenpom list

[detroitigerz]

Texas Southern is a play today right? +7.5

or wait they're in the SouthWest Athletic conference so it's a no play...?

[Dutch]

Can someone tell me where I can find exactly what conferences qualify? Also is there a quick way to look these up or do you just have to look at the games being played and then look on the Kenpom list

"...the Summit League is now included in system plays (while the American East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, and Southwestern Athletic are still excluded). "

[Heandog]

Thanks Dutch for posting the new system guide lines That diff helps out a lot for the people who dont know how it works ,but they will still be asking alot of questions Do as Kine says to do READ THE THREAD.

[Jgo]

So to confirm no plays today?

[Heandog]

none tonite and looks like none tommorrow

[trubbel]

It lookes like KineProfessor himself will be post his plays in his thread on covers.....both his ordinary and systemplays.

If the systemplays aren´t here before he posts them we can work together and post here from his thread.

Good teamwork

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Texas Southern is a play today right? +7.5

or wait they're in the SouthWest Athletic conference so it's a no play...?

i played it and it won!!!

[rjp322]

It lookes like KineProfessor himself will be post his plays in his thread on covers.....both his ordinary and systemplays.

If the systemplays aren´t here before he posts them we can work together and post here from his thread.

Good teamwork

Can you please post a link?

[trubbel]

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/P...1275364&page=1

Hope there isn´t a violation against the forum rules to post links....then i can take it away

[trubbel]

Northern Illinois +9

[rjp322]

Is that an official play? Is it the only one today?

[trubbel]

Yes it´s an official from KineProfessor himself in his own thread in the link above.

He has only posted that one yet along with other "possible" games.

[detroitigerz]

Hmm seems interesting, they're both in the MAC which is a conference to exclude in his system. I already took N Illinois +8.5 but wonder why he's verring from the system?

[convick]

Hmm seems interesting, they're both in the MAC which is a conference to exclude in his system. I already took N Illinois +8.5 but wonder why he's verring from the system?

"...the Summit League is now included in system plays (while the American East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, and Southwestern Athletic are still excluded). "

[detroitigerz]

"...the Summit League is now included in system plays (while the American East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, and Southwestern Athletic are still excluded). "

oh i thought MAC was mid-eastern atlantic woops.

[kkirby99]

Tough to bet all the barkers that this system provides but it has worked.

[Heandog]

if your gonna play it get on it sitting @8- now

[Heandog]

N.Ill +9 makes the system 4-0 and we got 4 plays tommorrow S.Alab+7,Troy+6-,E.Ill+7,and SIU Edwardsville+9- and keep an eye on the wright st /youngtowns st game . Talk to u tommorrow if you see any more please post em

[BlurredOut]

thanks for the tips heandog.

you jumping on those early or waiting until the last 30 min or so? still hard to get a feel of the line movement on these types of games.

[mikea33]

hey guys....first time in here, so how does it work? Who posts the plays?

[rjp322]

N.Ill +9 makes the system 4-0 and we got 4 plays tommorrow S.Alab+7,Troy+6-,E.Ill+7,and SIU Edwardsville+9- and keep an eye on the wright st /youngtowns st game . Talk to u tommorrow if you see any more please post em

Troy +6? This wouldnt qualify because it isnt 6.5?

[Dutch]

^Maybe a typo, a few different places are showing it at 6.5.

Right now I can only get S. Alab and E.Ill at 6.5, not 7..But I'm getting Edward at 9.5

What have we decided about locking in the bets early or waiting for movement in our favor?