tues 1st half plays

hoop guru · 03-02-09 11:19 PM

Clemson/Virginia under 68 1st half (10 units)
-THis game has a high over/under of 145.5. Clemson played at virginia earlier this season and virginia won 85-81. This was a game that went into OT. The score at the first half was 33-25 virginia. The game was tied at 74-74 at regulation before going into OT. Clemson plays solid defense in home games and virginia is not a team to light up the score board. I think they were lucky to score 85 points against Clemson but needed OT to do that.
-Virginia has scored over 30 points against in away conference game only against Georgia TEch. Virginia averages only about 25 points in the first half of away conference games.
-Projection: Virginia likes to slow down the games against the better teams of the ACC. Virginia scored in the low 20's (first half) in several of the ACC away games this season.

hoop guru · 03-02-09 11:33 PM

5 more first half plays
Kansas St/Oklahoma St under 73 1st half
Kansas St +3 1st half
Cincinatti ML 1st half (-125)
Richmond +3 1st half
E Kentucky +1.5 1st half

ManBearPig · 03-02-09 11:40 PM

where do you get your first half lines from? I can't find them at my book.

hoop guru · 03-03-09 12:11 AM

1st half lines are out the night before at the greek. Other books will not post 1st half lines until tommorrow morning. You can go to the greek.com and check out the first half spreads.

hoop guru · 03-03-09 01:05 AM

Kansas st/Oklahoma st under 73 1st half
-Kansas st has played 7 conference away games this season and here are the 1st half results from those games:

Missouri 55 Kansas St 32
Iowa St 24 Kansas St 19
texas A&M 21 Kansas St 23
Texas 22 Kansas St 32
Colorado 26 Kansas St 26
Nebraska 32 Kansas St 21
Kansas 37 Kansas St 24

-If we leave out the missouri and texas games, Kansas st is averaging 22.6 points in the 1st half of the other 5 away conference games. In those 7 games, K state has allowed over 32 points in the first half only twice. K st allowed Missouri to score 55 points in the first half and allowed Kansas to score 37 points in the first half. In the other five away games, K st is allowing an average of 25 points in the first half.

Oklahoma st is not exactly high powered on offense either. Oklahoma st did score 42 points in the first half against Missouri. Oklahoma St scored 30, 35, 36, 35, 30 and 36 points in the first half of the other 6 conference home games. Oklahoma st last played at Kansas st Feb 9, 2008 and lost 82-61. K st led the game 38-33 at halftime. K St had a much better offensive team with Beasly and Walker. In that game, Walker and Beasley combined to score 37 of the 82 points for K State. Without them, K st has become a very good defensive team.

Prediction: Neither team will score over 35 points in the first half. It will probably be less than that. Both teams will score in the low 30's in the first half.

hoop guru · 03-03-09 02:13 PM

Here are my 3 plays for tonite:
Richmond +3 -115 (1st half)
Kansas St +3 (1st half)
Cincinatti bearcats ML (-135) 1st half

03-03-09 03:00 PM

hoop, i love the uva/clemson 1H under [have that game at 74-57]. clemson is under team at home and uva is under team away. are you now off of this one and k state 1H under [my guess is you're off k state 1H under b/c espn game]?

like the k state/ok state 1H under in theory, but not as much based upon the numbers. i have that one at OK St, 78-74, so much closer to the game total. that said, i agree with your write-up that k state's numbers are skewed by 2 games, and 73 is a huge 1H number.

other observations/leans:
- i like Auburn to upset Bama [those games have always been very high-scoring, and a 2H over might be worth consideration]
- have both gtown [62-52] and duke [70-57] going significantly under, so may give those a look for 1H unders.
- richmond 1H is interesting. i think they'll lose but cover that game [i have 67-63]. i've watched charlotte some and still can't understand how they beat xavier and dayton. they've been decent 1H at home, though i note that it looks like the away team has been the team to take 1H in this series.

schaapattack · 03-03-09 03:04 PM

Biff do u post your plays?

03-03-09 03:11 PM

Originally Posted by schaapattack

Biff do u post your plays?

as a general matter, i don't formally post them. was keeping spreadsheet for a time but then got lazy. i will try to be sure to do better keeping sheet up to date, but wasn't really posting them here b/c this is hoop's thread devoted to halftime plays [don't want to pollute it], and i usually play some 1Hs and some game lines.

schaapattack · 03-03-09 03:14 PM

Oh ok ty

schaapattack · 03-03-09 03:14 PM

Seems like he does pretty well

hoop guru · 03-03-09 03:23 PM

biff,
I really just like Cincy mL first half (-135) and Richmond +3 first half. I am going heavy on both these plays tonite. I am staying away from over/unders tonite.

schaapattack · 03-03-09 03:27 PM

So are those your only 2 plays tonight or are you playing what you posted earlier hoop?

03-03-09 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by hoop guru

biff,
I really just like Cincy mL first half (-135) and Richmond +3 first half. I am going heavy on both these plays tonite. I am staying away from over/unders tonite.

hoop, thanks for your thoughts. i can't stay away from that uva/clemson 1H under, but think that maybe i will avoid the KSU/Ok St one due to it being an espn game. will definitely be on richmond 1H +3. book doesn't offer cincy 1H ML, and don't like giving points 1H, so may play Cincy for game. Cincy needs this, USF 2nd best player out, and USF has gotten blown out in some 2Hs

t-bone · 03-03-09 04:07 PM

Hey Biff and Hoop, what am I missing with the Mich St./Indiana UNDER 133?.........that seems way too high and Mich. St. may rest players.

May be my play of the night in CBB

hoop guru · 03-03-09 04:07 PM

biff,
I have an over play in the first half. I like MOntana St/Weber st to go over 62.5. This is one of those plays that I feel secure with. THis is the only first half over that I like. What do you think?

03-03-09 04:41 PM

Originally Posted by hoop guru

biff,
I have an over play in the first half. I like MOntana St/Weber st to go over 62.5. This is one of those plays that I feel secure with. THis is the only first half over that I like. What do you think?

let me run a quick forecast on it. in the meantime, how do you feel about Loyola-IL/Wisc-Mil under 1H (61)? horizon league games are notoriously low-scoring, as are match-ups between LIU/UWM. these two met last march and sputtered to a 19-17 halftime.

right now, i'm looking at:
4* Richmond 1H +4
4* UVA/Clemson 1H under 69
3* Cincinnati -2.5 [no 1H moneyline available, and i'd rather give points for game than 1H]
3* LIU/UWM 1H under 61

have the Montana/Weber forecast in 5 minutes. one potential problem: Weber supposedly sitting top 2 scorers tonight [seen that in a couple threads today].

bmw530i · 03-03-09 04:48 PM

Indiana 1st half +7.5
Have a great 1 tonight boys.

03-03-09 04:53 PM

hoop, i have Weber St, 73-69, so 7 above the posted total for game. note: this was with a 4-point downward adjustment for Weber and 1-point adjustment for Montana based upon the rumor that Weber's top 2 scorers will not play [so, forecast would've been for game to over by 12 but for that rumor, which seems to have legs - an entire thread debated it and the guy closed with 'this is the 4th or 5th time this year i've gotten info from this source, and every other time he's been right.'].

what do you think? does this potentially make it no-play? top 2 scorers being out could mean obvious downtick in scoring, but at same time, could mean that team overall is simply playing this loose and actually could mean faster pace and less defense from the better team.

03-03-09 04:59 PM

Originally Posted by t-bone

Hey Biff and Hoop, what am I missing with the Mich St./Indiana UNDER 133?.........that seems way too high and Mich. St. may rest players.

May be my play of the night in CBB

t-bone, i have that one at Mich St, 69-55. i usually only entertain over/unders where i have a game forecast at least 10 off the posted line for game. here, it's close [9 not 10]. i don't think the under is a bad call at all. however, i will note that resting players doesn't necessarily mean an under. in fact, it could mean that the team will play more loose, quicken pace, play less defense [this could be especially true in the Big Ten, where regular season is a defensive grind]. not hating on your pick - if i played it, i'd play under [no way would i play over here], but always fearful when i know a team will be playing outside their normal game. i rely a lot upon numbers and that renders numbers inherently less reliable.

t-bone · 03-03-09 05:11 PM

Hey thanks for the feedback Biff, I'm gonna go 2 units on the Under 133 because I've watched a lot of Indiana and if they want to keep it close they have to slow the pace down. Possibility of a rout in the 2nd half makes me not sweat last minute fouling.

Best of luck to ya

03-03-09 05:22 PM

Originally Posted by t-bone

Hey thanks for the feedback Biff, I'm gonna go 2 units on the Under 133 because I've watched a lot of Indiana and if they want to keep it close they have to slow the pace down. Possibility of a rout in the 2nd half makes me not sweat last minute fouling.

Best of luck to ya

BOL to you too. you an IU fan? crean's gonna have a sick team in a couple of years. they got the right guy to rebuild their program.

t-bone · 03-03-09 05:40 PM

No, it just seems like they've had a lot of espn games i bet on this year........I like that Crean though, looks like a Bobby Knight type guy!

google99 · 03-03-09 06:49 PM

Cincy and Richmond 1H cashed, nice work HOOP and Biff

hoop guru · 03-03-09 07:00 PM

I like indiana +7 (-120) 2nd half

Rick22 · 03-03-09 07:16 PM

Biff - thanks - you sounded so sure on the Clem under 1H I tailed ya.

hoop guru · 03-03-09 07:31 PM

I tailed with the clemson 1h under as well. I read your comments and it paid off.

Madetowin · 03-03-09 07:39 PM

Morehead +2 for second half

hoop guru · 03-03-09 10:03 PM

I hit a 5 teamer (59 to win 1200).

Ticon18 · 03-03-09 10:05 PM

Hoop- damn good job. Who was your 5 teamer?

Ticon18 · 03-03-09 10:09 PM

You are the man Hoop. I took some time off for betting but I wanna get back in for March Madness. Great work around here

hoop guru · 03-03-09 10:09 PM

Iowa +1/2 1st half (iowa was 32-30 at halftime)
Utah/new mexico over 64 1st half (halftime was 36-34)
Auburn/ALabama over 67.5 1st half (halftime score was 39-29, won by a half point)
Weber st/montana st over 63.5 (haltime was 43-32)
Wake Forest ML game (-130) Wake won by a score of 65-63

hoop guru · 03-03-09 10:17 PM

Ticon,
I like the kings -2.5 3rd quarter

hoop guru · 03-03-09 10:26 PM

I also took kings ML 2nd half (-180)

Madetowin · 03-03-09 11:17 PM

Good job Hoop. You've been tearin it up the past 2 weeks or so. GL to you tomorrow man.

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