[John Ryan]

This will be the site for the NCAA College Basketball season where I will release 5* Titan plays, the significantly more rare 10* plays, and the very rare 20* plays. This thread will be a mirror of the NFL thread I have hosted this season and is intended for the exchange of constructive ideas related to college basketball handicapping. Target goal is 60% ATS for the season.

Welcome and BOL to all.

[John Ryan]

5* graded play on Florida State as they take on Central Florida set to start at 7:00 PM ET.


Here is the synopsis of the simulator projections. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Florida State will win this game by 11 or more points. The simulator shows high probabilities exceeding 85% that the Seminoles will shoot 47 to 53% from the field, will make between 38 and 45% of their three-point shot attempts, will get nine to 13 offensive boards, and will allow 60 or fewer points.

In past games where they have achieved these levels of performance they have gone 10-1 ATS when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last two seasons; 52-29 ATS when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997; 9-2 ATS when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last two seasons; 53-27 ATS (+23.3 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game since 1997.

[PassUrChipZ]

liking it john. already on it!! gl.

[jjaycuny]

Thanks for starting the thread John, looking forward to the season.

[numismatist]

Good luck John. Lets make some cash and hammer the holy sh*t out of the book.

[wild card]

Dang it. I saw this thread too late to play the fsu game. regardless I'm grateful for the free advice and looking forward to the season. thanks

[truanswer]

damn missed this too...please get twitter john, that comes to my phone like a text!! great pick though, what was ur record last year??

[dahurt45]

Any plays for this midnight madness??

[aussieH]

Great stuff John. Missed the selection as well though

[sweethook]

great start john

[DHB]

great start john.

[august_]

I missed it too. Let's hope this goes as well as the nfl season and let's thank john for every pick he provide us

[Greyraptor]

Just saw it myself. Good start John!

[John Ryan]

12:00 NOON EST. 5* on Belmont

5* on California when they take on Austin Peay

5* Arkansas State over Missouri State

5* Dayton over Miami (Ohio)

[playz]

12:00 NOON EST. 5* on Belmont

5* on California when they take on Austin Peay

5* Arkansas State over Missouri State

5* Dayton over Miami (Ohio)

Are you on Belmont against the spread or on the ML?/

[idaho_bettor]

5* graded play on Florida State as they take on Central Florida set to start at 7:00 PM ET.


Here is the synopsis of the simulator projections. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Florida State will win this game by 11 or more points. The simulator shows high probabilities exceeding 85% that the Seminoles will shoot 47 to 53% from the field, will make between 38 and 45% of their three-point shot attempts, will get nine to 13 offensive boards, and will allow 60 or fewer points.

In past games where they have achieved these levels of performance they have gone 10-1 ATS when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last two seasons; 52-29 ATS when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997; 9-2 ATS when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last two seasons; 53-27 ATS (+23.3 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game since 1997.

I wanted to quickly recap John's predictions and the outcomes of his first capped NCAA basketball game of the season for those of you who are interested. See below.

John Predicted:

• Seminoles would shoot between 47 - 53% from the field.
  
  • Result: 50.9%
• Seminoles would make between 38 - 45% of their 3pt attempts.
  
  • Result: 21.4% (can't nail them all, John)
• Seminoles will pull down between 9 & 13 offensive boards.
  
  • Result: 14 offensive rebounds
• Seminoles will hold UCF to less than 60 points.
  
  • Result: 50 points
• Most importantly- Seminoles will win by 11 or more points.
  
  • Result: 23 point victory

I am fairly new to SBR and was lucky enough to find John's NFL thread. It took me a little while to develop a trust for any of the cappers, which led to missed opportunities. Therefore, my purpose for this post is to assist anyone else who is currently on the fence.

Thanks for the ongoing advice, John! Looking forward to a profitable season of basketball.

[John Ryan]

I wanted to quickly recap John's predictions and the outcomes of his first capped NCAA basketball game of the season for those of you who are interested. See below.

John Predicted:

• Seminoles would shoot between 47 - 53% from the field.
  
  • Result: 50.9%
• Seminoles would make between 38 - 45% of their 3pt attempts.
  
  • Result: 21.4% (can't nail them all, John)
• Seminoles will pull down between 9 & 13 offensive boards.
  
  • Result: 14 offensive rebounds
• Seminoles will hold UCF to less than 60 points.
  
  • Result: 50 points
• Most importantly- Seminoles will win by 11 or more points.
  
  • Result: 23 point victory

I am fairly new to SBR and was lucky enough to find John's NFL thread. It took me a little while to develop a trust for any of the cappers, which led to missed opportunities. Therefore, my purpose for this post is to assist anyone else who is currently on the fence.

Thanks for the ongoing advice, John! Looking forward to a profitable season of basketball.

I sincerely appreciate the analysis and would encourage you to do that anytime you wish. Believe me there will be some that are way off, BUT in providing the data, projections, systems, angles, and game situations we know that there is a sound factual basis for making the play. Nice work!

[wild card]

Thanks John, howcome you don't post the lines you got or if you playing the ML/ATS....

Thanks for the picks

He does post the spread, he prob didn't have time this morning. He also rarely picks money lines, so it's safe to assume that all these picks are ATS. Even if the line changes after he posts, he usually advises that you still play his pick.

[joeytunes]

like dayton..do u have college fb thread?

[Ktown]

What was the Belmont spread btw?

Belmont +4

[khicks26]

thanks John

[DK55]

i think Missouri St. covers

[DK55]

Duke -6.5
Missouri St -3
Pepperdine +15
santa clara +7.5
Utah st.+3
miami fl.-8.5
iowa st.-1
butler-13.5

these are my plays for tonite

[Bondite]

Guess load up on cal because you can't possibly go 0-4 right?

[aussieH]

Rough day. Did it finish 1-3

[sweethook]

you waite til that box warms up will be 4-0 ,

[aussieH]

What do you mean "box"

[rexieboy]

12:00 NOON EST. 5* on Belmont

5* on California when they take on Austin Peay

5* Arkansas State over Missouri State

5* Dayton over Miami (Ohio)

Ouch!

[John Ryan]

http://www.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketb...-pick-a-22080/

[John Ryan]

5* graded play on Pittsburgh -13 1/2 -110 over Long beach State; one and only play.

[PassUrChipZ]

Now 14. With you on this one Pitt should roll. Long Beach should hang for a half though. they aren't that bad.

[John Ryan]

The College Hoops record is off to a 2-3 ATS start. If there was ever a time to take the 'long view' it is with the long basketball seasons. This is a marathon.

[John Ryan]

Certainly, last night's pick on Pittsburgh was highly wrong - for lack of a better word or phrase. thought after two easy 'cupcake' opponents, the Pitt staff would want their troops using this game as a greater test. If they did, then Pitt is vastly over rated and LBST is vastly under rated. Maybe, it was just one of those game. However, LBST was quicker, faster, and their help defense was quite good for this early in the season. I make not upon occasion of such results so that I do keep an increased eye on a team like LBST that can easily fly under the NCAA radar. It is rare that I lose SU playing a double digit favorite and I certainly apologize for this very weak play.

Record stands at 2-4 ATS for the six 5* plays this season.