NBA Finals: Game 6 betting line smells fishy
Though home court advantage has dominated the NBA Playoffs up to now, Boston's four-point chalk for Game 6 looks a little suspicious. Conspiracy theorists are out in full force and insisting the NBA will 'fix' another game in Los Angeles' favor to force a Game 7 on Thursday between the Lakers and Celtics. In a strange twist, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are out to upset the line as the favorites.
What the deuce?!
The Boston Celtics are 4-point favorites in Tuesday’s NBA Finals matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. To be honest, my initial reaction when I saw this line go up in the aftermath of Sunday’s Game 5 was utter befuddlement.
Home-court advantage has been the No. 1 storyline of the entire playoffs, and the Celtics are 12-1 (8-5 against the spread) at the Garden. They’re also 5-0 ATS against the Lakers in this series, making the Western Conference champions look like chumps in the process.
According to one prominent sportsbook, 82 percent of bettors were on the Celtics at press time. But the money was split nearly down the middle, with Boston drawing 52 percent of the action. The bigger money (especially this early in the betting process) tends to come from the sharper handicappers. Perhaps they believe the NBA might exert its influence to extend this series to a seventh and very lucrative deciding game on Thursday.
There are other, less insidious reasons the Lakers could beat the spread Tuesday. This is still a very high-quality team that went into the Finals as -150 favorites. Los Angeles is healthy, while Boston is not. Kendrick Perkins (shoulder) is a game-time decision, Rajon Rondo (ankle) has been ineffective in limited minutes, and Ray Allen had to leave Staples Center immediately after Game 5 to deal with a family medical emergency. Fortunately, all appears to be well on the Allen front and he is expected to play in Game 6.
Complicating matter for the Celtics, their plane out of Los Angeles sat on the tarmac for over five hours on Monday with mechanical problems. A 757 was flown into LAX to take Boston players, staff and family home – avoiding the “sleepover” that the San Antonio Spurs had to endure in the Western Conference Finals when their charter plane had similar issues. More fodder for the growing contingent of conspiracy theorists.
The injuries to Perkins and Rondo played a significant role in the outcome of Game 5. Coach Phil Jackson took advantage by playing Jordan Farmar the entire fourth quarter; he was able to slice through the lesser defense of Eddie House and Sam Cassell, then drive the lane for a pair of lay-ups as the Lakers built a 14-point lead. With Rondo both hurt and neutralized by Kobe Bryant’s defense, Jackson may have found the right combination to pick Boston’s lock.
At least someone is producing off the bench. Jackson strongly suggested the Chris Mihm experiment wouldn’t be revisited after Boston went on a 10-2 run against the Lakers reserves to start the second quarter of Game 5.
"We tried some different faces out there to see what we could do," Jackson told reporters, "but we’re not going to stay with that."
The absence of Perkins allows Jackson the luxury of going small against Boston’s smaller lineup. Farmar played well in a backcourt combination with Derek Fisher, moving Bryant to small forward and avoiding the general lack of contribution (that is, at an NBA Finals-level) from the three-headed monster of Vladimir Radmanovic, Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza. Those three are all very useful as role players; Farmar is a more complete talent who improved substantially in his sophomore campaign, from 10.79 to an above-average 15.42 in Player Efficiency Rating.
This is all well and good for Lakers supporters, even more so with the betting odds at many sportsbooks moving to Boston -4½ on Monday night. But based on the results of the first five games of this series, Bryant admitted the Lakers have to play better to extend this series to a Game 7.
Tip-off is at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.