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Old 06-04-2008, 10:35 PM   #1 (permalink)
FreeFall
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Default Celtics vs Lakers 1st two games

Can anyone convince me how this won't win? I know nothing is guaranteed, but I'm considering 50% of my BR on this process. When I saw rake post about it too, I just got more into doing it now. I've been thinking about betting BOS ML for the first game. If it loses which I really don't think it will then I'll bet the BOS ML on the 2nd game.

Does anyone really see BOS not winning one of the first two games of these series?
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:27 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeFall View Post
Does anyone really see BOS not winning one of the first two games of these series?
i dont. but i dont mind being wrong! let's go lakers!

goodluck bud!
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:28 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Boston will probably win at least one of the first two games, but what would you set the moneyline of game 2 at if Bostin wins game 1? I estimate about -150. I have the Lakers starting 2-0 a little under 17% of the time.
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:38 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheell View Post
Boston will probably win at least one of the first two games, but what would you set the moneyline of game 2 at if Bostin wins game 1? I estimate about -150. I have the Lakers starting 2-0 a little under 17% of the time.
I wouldn't bet the 2nd game if I won the first one.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:10 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I understand, but I think you have a little under a 17% chance of cutting your bankroll in half.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:28 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
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I understand, but I think you have a little under a 17% chance of cutting your bankroll in half.
Show the math? How did you get 17%
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:29 PM   #7 (permalink)
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The team with the best regular season record has never lost both game 1 and 2 of the NBA finals
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:32 PM   #8 (permalink)
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The thing is, I don't see the LAKERS not winning one of the first two games, so I'd rather go for the dog value. Lakers +130 tonight, and if they lose, a little heavier at a minimum of +120 in Game 2.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:33 PM   #9 (permalink)
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rake,

Yes but the difference is that the Celtics are no longer the best team in the NBA. The Lakers are since the Gasol trade and they will prove it on the court.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:36 PM   #10 (permalink)
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wheel,

I get 19.7% on Lakers winning first two. If they lose at +130 tonight, I think they will be slightly LESS at +120 in Game 2. So 43.48%(+130) x 45.45%(+120) = 19.7%
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:37 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Rake asked how I did the math:

Game 1 Celtics -141

Game 2 if Celtics win

Celtics -130

Game 2 if Lakers win:

Celtics -154.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:40 PM   #12 (permalink)
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So we agree that Lakers will be +120 in Game 2 if they lose tonight.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:47 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Well, my lines are intended to be vig free, so at MB you should be able to get +126 after commission.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:47 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Also, if you think the lakers should only be +130, Pinnacle and Matchbook would like to talk to you and your bankroll..
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:25 PM   #15 (permalink)
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what are the odds of the lakers not winning one of the first two?
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:30 PM   #16 (permalink)
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About 33% Boston 2-0.
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:52 PM   #17 (permalink)
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83% or 66% chance to hit. The odds seem to be in favor of picking the Celtics.
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