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06-04-2008, 10:35 PM
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#1 (permalink)
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 02-20-08
Posts: 927
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Celtics vs Lakers 1st two games
Can anyone convince me how this won't win? I know nothing is guaranteed, but I'm considering 50% of my BR on this process. When I saw rake post about it too, I just got more into doing it now. I've been thinking about betting BOS ML for the first game. If it loses which I really don't think it will then I'll bet the BOS ML on the 2nd game.
Does anyone really see BOS not winning one of the first two games of these series?
__________________
"If I could stand in an open airplane doorway two-and-a-half miles above the ground and will myself to step into empty space, then I could do anything." -DAVE STEIN
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06-05-2008, 04:27 AM
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#2 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 02-25-08
Posts: 1,849
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeFall
Does anyone really see BOS not winning one of the first two games of these series?
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i dont. but i dont mind being wrong!  let's go lakers!
goodluck bud!
__________________
Twat did you say, I cunt hear you? Tits alright, bare-ass me again! Eh, we'll finger it out later.
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06-05-2008, 02:28 PM
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#3 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 01-11-07
Posts: 1,276
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Boston will probably win at least one of the first two games, but what would you set the moneyline of game 2 at if Bostin wins game 1? I estimate about -150. I have the Lakers starting 2-0 a little under 17% of the time.
__________________
The foundation of every state is the education of its youth.
Diogenes Laėrtius
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06-05-2008, 02:38 PM
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#4 (permalink)
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 02-20-08
Posts: 927
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheell
Boston will probably win at least one of the first two games, but what would you set the moneyline of game 2 at if Bostin wins game 1? I estimate about -150. I have the Lakers starting 2-0 a little under 17% of the time.
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I wouldn't bet the 2nd game if I won the first one.
__________________
"If I could stand in an open airplane doorway two-and-a-half miles above the ground and will myself to step into empty space, then I could do anything." -DAVE STEIN
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06-05-2008, 03:10 PM
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#5 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 01-11-07
Posts: 1,276
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I understand, but I think you have a little under a 17% chance of cutting your bankroll in half.
__________________
The foundation of every state is the education of its youth.
Diogenes Laėrtius
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06-05-2008, 03:28 PM
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#6 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 12-23-07
Posts: 4,239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheell
I understand, but I think you have a little under a 17% chance of cutting your bankroll in half.
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Show the math? How did you get 17%
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06-05-2008, 03:29 PM
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#7 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 12-23-07
Posts: 4,239
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The team with the best regular season record has never lost both game 1 and 2 of the NBA finals
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06-05-2008, 03:32 PM
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#8 (permalink)
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 10-27-06
Posts: 12,223
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The thing is, I don't see the LAKERS not winning one of the first two games, so I'd rather go for the dog value. Lakers +130 tonight, and if they lose, a little heavier at a minimum of +120 in Game 2.
__________________
If you don't bet Hockey, you must not like money!
Quote:
Originally Posted by donjuan
I may disagree with LT from time to time, but he's not a tard.
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06-05-2008, 03:33 PM
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#9 (permalink)
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 10-27-06
Posts: 12,223
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rake,
Yes but the difference is that the Celtics are no longer the best team in the NBA. The Lakers are since the Gasol trade and they will prove it on the court.
__________________
If you don't bet Hockey, you must not like money!
Quote:
Originally Posted by donjuan
I may disagree with LT from time to time, but he's not a tard.
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06-05-2008, 03:36 PM
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#10 (permalink)
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 10-27-06
Posts: 12,223
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wheel,
I get 19.7% on Lakers winning first two. If they lose at +130 tonight, I think they will be slightly LESS at +120 in Game 2. So 43.48%(+130) x 45.45%(+120) = 19.7%
__________________
If you don't bet Hockey, you must not like money!
Quote:
Originally Posted by donjuan
I may disagree with LT from time to time, but he's not a tard.
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06-05-2008, 03:37 PM
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#11 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 01-11-07
Posts: 1,276
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Rake asked how I did the math:
Game 1 Celtics -141
Game 2 if Celtics win
Celtics -130
Game 2 if Lakers win:
Celtics -154.
__________________
The foundation of every state is the education of its youth.
Diogenes Laėrtius
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06-05-2008, 03:40 PM
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#12 (permalink)
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 10-27-06
Posts: 12,223
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So we agree that Lakers will be +120 in Game 2 if they lose tonight. 
__________________
If you don't bet Hockey, you must not like money!
Quote:
Originally Posted by donjuan
I may disagree with LT from time to time, but he's not a tard.
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06-05-2008, 03:47 PM
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#13 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 01-11-07
Posts: 1,276
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Well, my lines are intended to be vig free, so at MB you should be able to get +126 after commission.
__________________
The foundation of every state is the education of its youth.
Diogenes Laėrtius
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06-05-2008, 03:47 PM
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#14 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 01-11-07
Posts: 1,276
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Also, if you think the lakers should only be +130, Pinnacle and Matchbook would like to talk to you and your bankroll..
__________________
The foundation of every state is the education of its youth.
Diogenes Laėrtius
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06-05-2008, 04:25 PM
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#15 (permalink)
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 02-20-08
Posts: 927
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what are the odds of the lakers not winning one of the first two?
__________________
"If I could stand in an open airplane doorway two-and-a-half miles above the ground and will myself to step into empty space, then I could do anything." -DAVE STEIN
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06-05-2008, 04:30 PM
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#16 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 01-11-07
Posts: 1,276
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About 33% Boston 2-0.
__________________
The foundation of every state is the education of its youth.
Diogenes Laėrtius
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06-05-2008, 04:52 PM
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#17 (permalink)
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 02-20-08
Posts: 927
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83% or 66% chance to hit. The odds seem to be in favor of picking the Celtics.
__________________
"If I could stand in an open airplane doorway two-and-a-half miles above the ground and will myself to step into empty space, then I could do anything." -DAVE STEIN
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