[Reload]

Reload's NBA Playoffs "Lock and Load" Game of the Week for Thursday Night:

San Antonio Spurs minus 6.5 points against the New Orleans Hornets

It's time for my first writeup on the NBA playoffs and tonight I am taking the San Antonio Spurs minus 6.5 points against the New Orleans Hornets in Game 3 of the series between the two teams. Although those who have followed me over the years know that I typically prefer betting NBA games in the regular season much more than playoff games, tonight is one of those nights!

The NBA regular season is always full of good opportunities for wagering but those same positive chances are hard to find in the playoffs, Point spreads are sharper and come out days before the games are played giving oddsmakers more time to adjust them. Situational handicapping is also less possible in the playoffs compared to the regular season as factors such as road trips, letdown spots, and roster moves like resting players are not nearly as apparent. Teams in the playoffs attack each game at 100% and there are no excuses for failure when you have a seven game series requiring four wins to advance. Despite how tough the NBA playoffs can be to beat from a betting standpoint, I feel tonight there is enough on the table for us to step in and cash at the betting windows by laying the points with the San Antonio Spurs.

The series between San Antonio and New Orleans has started out with the Hornets winning the first two games in dominating fashion. San Antonio has been held to only 82 and 84 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, and everyone out there is just about ready to count the Spurs out and back the more flashy Hornets getting points tonight as an underdog. But, not so fast!

When this series started, both the Hornets and Spurs came in breezing through their first round matchups. For the Spurs, that was just business as usual but for the Hornets it was a coming of age for them. And that momentum the Hornets had surely carried over into round two against the Spurs with being able to light it up at home. But do you know how long it's been since New Orleans has had a road game? You have to go back to April 27 for that and it was a win over the Dallas Mavericks in the first round. But what happened two nights before that on April 25 when playing in Dallas after dominating them at home in the first two games of the series? That's right - a loss. And I see the same scenario here in Game 3 with it being on the road for the Hornets and facing a Spurs team who will be sure to have the most must-win intensity they have had this whole season. I do not see the Hornets being able to put up the same 100+ points tonight as they have done in the first two games of the series. In fact, you have to go all the way back to nearly a month ago on April 11 for the last time that New Orleans scored over 100 points on the road,

The San Antonio Spurs have not had the confines of home recently as 4 out of their last 5 games have been on the road. But tonight it's back home with the black and grey attack of the Spurs and their fans getting ready to help keep the championship run going. In their last home game, it was the first-round series clinching win against the Phoenix Suns. And that was off a blowout loss for the Spurs as the Suns defeated them in Phoenix 105-86 two nights before. The stage is set for a similar bounceback win for the Spurs tonight - the change of venue with them getting to play back at home will bring out the emotion, the fans, and I expect the Spurs defense to be stronger wire to wire. The Spurs have allowed an average of under 90 points a game at home this season and with even greater intensity tonight, I can see this being an even lower scoring game than usual.

I cannot see the same Hornets team who won Games 1 and 2 showing up tonight. In Game 2, New Orleans shot 59% from the 3 point line and we all know how streaky 3 point shooting is - especially when the venue of a series shifts to the road after being home for so long. I especially feel Game 2 was a bad spot for the Spurs with a 10pm ET start time which in a region like New Orleans is unusual and clearly made it more favorable to the home team - as well as more time for the fans to get jacked up with liquor on Bourbon Street. The Spurs have all their weapons and just like those of us going to the betting windows, they will come with their guns loaded tonight. Basketball is a game of runs and as long as San Antonio can prevent that one big quarter for the Hornets from happening, then I see them getting a big win on their home floor. The Hornets will leave the court feeling like the rodeo was in town and find it hard to regroup for Game 4.

The line favoring the Spurs by 6.5 points is about what I would expect and has even been shaded up a bit with this being such an important game for the Spurs to get a win with. But it is also teasing the underdog players of grabbing what looks to be a juicy 6.5 points with a team like the Hornets who have won big in the first two games of the series. In that way, I feel the line could even go down because of it looking too easy to go with New Orleans here. So keep a close eye on it and lay the fewest points you can.

Get your reloads in and take the San Antonio Spurs minus the points! My NBA Playoffs "Lock and Load" Game of the Week!

[fearless]

I'm on the Spurs ML. Thanks for the write-up! You might enjoy this site: http://whowins.com/

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Up 2-game-nil at home:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team winning Games 1-2 with Games 1-2 at home (New Orleans) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2008 NHL Quarterfinals and NBA Preliminary rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 398-41 (.907)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 142-10 (.934)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 168-10 (.944)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 77-2 (.975)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 201-238 (.458)
Game 3 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 76-76 (.500)
Game 3 record, NBA only, all rounds: 67-111 (.376)
Game 3 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 30-49 (.380)

[Reload]

Originally Posted by rainbowworld

I'm on the Spurs ML. Thanks for the write-up!

You're welcome, rainbowworld! Good luck tonight!

[Shumakov]

Can-Antonio Spurs !
__________________
NBA 2007-08 record: +26=1-21

[junkman773]

Like it BOL

Junk

[Reload]

Originally Posted by junkman773

Like it BOL

Junk

Hey junkman. Good luck tonight! Hope those West Coast Money Moves keep bringing in the cash.

[mofome]

wow, awesome stuff. i like the article and you've pushed me towards SA.

im in

[sex hog]

Great write-up, Lock & Load I like the Spurs tonight.

[Reload]

Originally Posted by mofome

wow, awesome stuff. i like the article and you've pushed me towards SA.

im in

Good to hear, mofome! Have no fear and lay the points!

[Reload]

Originally Posted by sex hog

Great write-up, Lock & Load I like the Spurs tonight.

Thanks sex hog! Lock and Load tonight!

[mofome]

Originally Posted by Reload

Good to hear, mofome! Have no fear and lay the points!

I am taking the Spurs -6.5 and the over in boston.

[Reload]

Originally Posted by mofome

I am taking the Spurs -6.5 and the over in boston.

Over in the Boston-Cleveland game is not a bad choice. I never take over's but I feel tonight's game will be different from Game 1. In Game 1, you had the Celtics coming off an emotionally draining series with the Hawks and you had the Cavs who were pretty rusty with not having played in a while. I think it clearly affected the shooting/scoring with sometimes many easy shots being missed and some sloppy play by both teams. So although I cannot ever bet an over it seems, that would be my lean.

[mofome]

Originally Posted by Reload

Over in the Boston-Cleveland game is not a bad choice. I never take over's but I feel tonight's game will be different from Game 1. In Game 1, you had the Celtics coming off an emotionally draining series with the Hawks and you had the Cavs who were pretty rusty with not having played in a while. I think it clearly affected the shooting/scoring with sometimes many easy shots being missed and some sloppy play by both teams. So although I cannot ever bet an over it seems, that would be my lean.

I play the over in game 2 of every series. so far 8-2-1

[polishkielbasa10]

anyone else likeing that boston -8...I'm a celtic by trade and think the public is gonna run this down to maybe 7 come game time, cause.."Lebron only had 4 points, and they only lost by 6"...but what the public doesn't realize is that Boston has maybe the best ATS at home, including the crowd, I'm thinking Boston by 13

[polishkielbasa10]

not to metion Ray Ray was scoreless, and Pierce only had 4

[YoungMoney23]

hornets moneyline,,bring out the brooms

[Reload]

You're right, polishkielbasa. Lebron had a bad game but it works both ways as the Celtics also had an off night really. I'd pass on it though. Both teams should have better games tonight and for that reason, it's hard to say where the margin of victory will fall. Good luck!

[SexyMit]

Thats why the OVER would be a good bet...

[YoungMoney23]

i like the over as well

[Reload]

Would definitely prefer the over in that one to laying the points with the Celtics.

[polishkielbasa10]

lay the points and enjoy the show boys....

[mofome]

we have a winner. well done reload

[Reload]

Originally Posted by mofome

we have a winner. well done reload

Thanks, mofome! Locked and loaded!