[mwhit0000]

I'm thinking of taking them +7 against boston, seems good.

also, how does this look:

teaser 3 team:

pistons +8.5
hornets +9
suns +14

seems foolproof to me

[ryanXL977]

i am curious as to why the line is so big
i think boston is better , but 7 pts is a ton

[GSW4life]

seems weird to me too...could be a trap, but I took the Suns +7.
I expect a playoff type atmosphere resulting in a low scoring close game. Both teams are playing for something even though Boston has already clinched. Phoenix trying to prove their toughness and in the midst of the Western Conference playoff mess + Boston has lost 2 in a row at home and hasn't lost 3 in a row at home all year = Close tough fought battle

[ryanXL977]

i like boston at pick em, but since it aint pick em i will take the dog

[Arnold]

I like the Suns. -7 is too much for Boston in this game.

[rake922]

Bet on Celtics ...

[sir.civic]

boston hir......"outside shooting... fast pace bball...if shaq plays the whole game... its over for them.....

[Dark Horse]

The 7 pt line reflects public perception. In my opinion Boston is not nearly as good as perceived. They would not be at the top of the table in the West, and their excellent record is largely the result of playing in the weak East.

So the Suns giving up 7 pts is almost like free money. I'm trying to decide if the PHX ML is the way to go.

[ryanXL977]

oh , i surely think the celts are the best in the league, beat dallas 2x, rockets 2x, spurs 2x, lakers in la, detroit twice

they are the best
but that doesnt mean they cover tonte

[Dark Horse]

That's not how I would measure it. This is the NBA (regular season). Teams either get up for games or not. In the West teams have so many strong opponents that the frequency of having to get up for a game starts to wear on the intensity. For Boston this is not a problem. Didn't Boston have a pretty horrible extended road trip through the West? That indicates how they would have done in the West much more so than the few big games they did get up for.

The weaknesses for Boston are mental softness and lack of a strong point guard. This won't necessarily show up in the regular season, but it will be exposed in the playoffs. The question is: is tonight a playoff game? Or how close to a playoff game is this?

[Illusion]

Phoenix always plays Boston tough. I am taking the points tonight.

[Wyndham]

It's amazing to me that people are so fickle with spreads. Do you not watch the sport you bet on? Here's an example which shows why nothing is fool-proof or half as good as it ever looks: It's a close game for 44 minutes. Boston leads by two with four minutes to play. The teams swap buckets for a couple of minutes. With a couple to play, Ray Allen sinks a three-pointer, Steve Nash follows with a turnover and then Boston gets an easy layup. It's now 100-93, a seven-point difference. The teams more or less swap buckets for another 90 seconds and then Phoenix starts fouling. Ray Allen keeps making free throws and Phoenix's desperation is all for nothing. Final score: Phoenix 99 - Boston 111. Close game? Damn right, but the scoreline doesn't always reflect that. In fact, because of the nature of the NBA -- this doesn't happen in pro or college football -- the final scoreline is rarely indicative of exactly how the game went.

Phoenix +7 looks good. But you basically need them to win or be within three points with less than 60 seconds to play. Anything else and Boston should cover. And even if they're down two or three with 60 seconds to play, they STILL have to hit shots/hope Boston misses free throws to get a cover. Against the best team in the NBA on the road after a tough road game against Detroit, I don't love the Suns' chances.

[ryanXL977]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

That's not how I would measure it. This is the NBA (regular season). Teams either get up for games or not. In the West teams have so many strong opponents that the frequency of having to get up for a game starts to wear on the intensity. For Boston this is not a problem. Didn't Boston have a pretty horrible extended road trip through the West? That indicates how they would have done in the West much more so than the few big games they did get up for.

The weaknesses for Boston are mental softness and lack of a strong point guard. This won't necessarily show up in the regular season, but it will be exposed in the playoffs. The question is: is tonight a playoff game? Or how close to a playoff game is this?

boston just won all their road gamesin texas, not a tough road trip for them

[Wyndham]

Btw, the above is why betting totals is so much more profitable than taking sides (see LT Profits). You'll take the bad beat every now and then where the game was under all the way until some BS chucking in the fourth quarter, or where it was over all the way until a BS late drought of points. But for the most part it's easier to cap and far less dependent on circumstancial events.

[M.Chalmers15]

wyndham, what are your totals plays for tonight?

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by ryanXL977

boston just won all their road gamesin texas, not a tough road trip for them

Sure. And in February they went 2-3 SU on a road trip through the west with their only two wins coming against < .500 teams.
After that debacle, they were obviously determined to have a strong road trip this month.

The NBA has many games that are approached like training sessions. For Boston, in the East, that won't show up in their record nearly as much as for a top team in the West. So don't confuse their record with their true strength.

[ryanXL977]

i am not looking at their record, i am looking at the fact they have beaten evceryone in the league twice
excpt the suns
the celts are the best

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by ryanXL977

i am not looking at their record, i am looking at the fact they have beaten evceryone in the league twice
excpt the suns
the celts are the best

You should be looking at their record, because that's why the line is so high.

Anyway, since you have a mantra going, let's forget the Hornets. And also throw out any similarities between New Orleans and Phoenix.

[ryanXL977]

the suns always lose to the hornets

[greek]

boston at home ml

[mundane]

what Wyndham sed only suns cover by 1 pt!

[ryanXL977]

i have seen many teams down 3 with 1 minute to play lose by more than 7
happens every single day

[rake922]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Didn't Boston have a pretty horrible extended road trip through the West? That indicates how they would have done in the West much more so than the few big games they did get up for.

Boston is 23-5 Straight up vs the Western Conference. you consider that horrible?

[ChuteBoxe]

I'm on the suns ml (+258) for 2 units, and +6 for 3. Let's go Phoenix!

[pat venditto]

chutes gettin burried tonight

[ryanXL977]

jesus the celts are somehting else
how could anyone call them anything but the best in the nba
they are damned good