[babaoriley]

I posted this in yesterday's parlay thread. Keep in mind, I've followed this team very closely (as an S.A. resident/fan/ticket holder) for many years. Anyway, let's get a good discussion kicked off regarding the Phoenix-S.A. game. I'll post my thoughts in this thread as the "Rodeo Road Trip" continues, as I feel there is going to be some value on either the side or total in almost every game. My main question is this: What do you think the line will open at against Phoenix (considering past performance and the Parker absence) and upon opening, where will the early money flow?

Originally Posted by babaoriley View Post
SEA +7.5 --- Plenty of red flags here:
-2nd half of a back-to-back (their second back-to-back in the last 5 days) and a b-2-b road trip as well (see 11/26 @Minn for similar situation)...
-Rodeo road trip with a game at PHO looming ahead should mean the Spurs rest up their starters if this one is out of hand early... -Everyone is on the Spurs to bounce back tonight with a win and ATS cover against arguably the worst team in the league...
-owned the Sonics in their previous meeting at Seattle, BUT, again their are red flags: The Spurs shot 51.3% to the Sonics 52.6%. The Spurs were a ridiculous 23-24 from the FT line (96%) and even more ridiculous 11-19 from downtown (58%) and won by 15. Anyone expecting them to match that shooting performance is loony.

-Spurs/SEA Under 194 (or whatever is posted)- Spurs last 10 games have all been 194 or Under, and 17 of their last 19 have been 194 or under. The Spurs have played back-to-back road games twice this season, losing both of the second games (at Sac and at GS). Also, see above for the ridiculous numbers the Spurs posted last game at SEA, then factor in that the Sonics shot 52.6% from the field, 40% from downtown, and 83% from the FT line. If this game goes over, it's going to squeak by the over, not soar over it as it did the last time these two teams met. Pop has to get these guys playing sound D and playing slower if he hopes to emerge with a .500 record on this road trip.

I normally hate boasting, but I have this Spurs team figured out at the moment. That's 4-0 in posted plays here, but if I go back and check my record, I'm 11-1 on my last 12 Spurs wagers dating back to last Wednesday:

Had both side and over tonight (2-0)
Had both side and over last night (4-0)
Had both side and over against N.O. (6-0)
Had N.O. ML (7-0) ^^^
Had right side in MIA (+9.5)-SA (8-0)
Had Under 197 against LAL last Wed, but missed side (9-1)
Kobe +38.5 P+R+A (ended up with 46) (10-1)
Duncan +11.5 Reb (ended up with 17) (11-1)

I would never recommend blindly tailing me, but right now, I feel like I have these guys figured out. Without Parker, the line change against PHO is going to be based more on Parker's absence than actual performance, which is a shame. I'm thinking the line may still be too conservative (Phoenix -6.5 or 7, maybe???). We'll see...

[Dark Horse]

The line that would make me think is PHX -6.5 or -7.

[The HG]

Thanks for this thread baba, there's nothing more valuable in capping than someone who follows their hometown team.

the spurs also have struck me in recent years as a team that tends to have a bit more lines than average that are exploitable in various ways, either on or against or with a total.

[Wrigley]

I lost playing the spurs last time skipping this game spurs could win outright

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by babaoriley

I posted this in yesterday's parlay thread. Keep in mind, I've followed this team very closely (as an S.A. resident/fan/ticket holder) for many years. Anyway, let's get a good discussion kicked off regarding the Phoenix-S.A. game. I'll post my thoughts in this thread as the "Rodeo Road Trip" continues, as I feel there is going to be some value on either the side or total in almost every game. My main question is this: What do you think the line will open at against Phoenix (considering past performance and the Parker absence) and upon opening, where will the early money flow?





I normally hate boasting, but I have this Spurs team figured out at the moment. That's 4-0 in posted plays here, but if I go back and check my record, I'm 11-1 on my last 12 Spurs wagers dating back to last Wednesday:

Had both side and over tonight (2-0)
Had both side and over last night (4-0)
Had both side and over against N.O. (6-0)
Had N.O. ML (7-0) ^^^
Had right side in MIA (+9.5)-SA (8-0)
Had Under 197 against LAL last Wed, but missed side (9-1)
Kobe +38.5 P+R+A (ended up with 46) (10-1)
Duncan +11.5 Reb (ended up with 17) (11-1)

I would never recommend blindly tailing me, but right now, I feel like I have these guys figured out. Without Parker, the line change against PHO is going to be based more on Parker's absence than actual performance, which is a shame. I'm thinking the line may still be too conservative (Phoenix -6.5 or 7, maybe???). We'll see...

And it predictably opens at Pho -7. Ah boy... Got to take a closer look at this one tomorrow when I'm not still reeling from that Texas A&M whoopdown on my boys tonight. I'm going into a 12 hour period of mourning/drinking. I'll be back fresh tomorrow to take this one on. Right now, I'm leaning over 200 as Phoenix should really force tempo. Still need to run this through my mind a few times to try to figure out the side... I'll post tomorrow when I'm done stabbing my Aggie voodoo doll. G'night.

[Dark Horse]

Pretty funny. The team I follow closely is Phoenix. I had only read the first part of your post where you asked for a line (until the part where you quoted yourself), so didn't even know that we zeroed in on the exact same -6.5 or -7 line.

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Pretty funny. The team I follow closely is Phoenix. I had only read the first part of your post where you asked for a line (until the part where you quoted yourself), so didn't even know that we zeroed in on the exact same -6.5 or -7 line.

DH,
I figured that's what happened. I wish we would have been off a little (preferably in Phoenix's direction, maybe Pho -5.5 or so). Ah well. shaking off last night's damage and immersing myself for a little while. What are you leaning DH? Right now, I'm hesitant about a side.

[MOMONEY]

Taking PHO. No parker = PHO by 10. This line is too low.

[babaoriley]

Interesting... Line now at Phoenix -6.5 202.5 now. I even see a few 203's up there... Opened at Phoenix -7 199 but was bought up to 7.5 quickly (8 in some places) before being bought back down... The line movement seems conflicted to me, since all Parker brought was offense.

Really, I can't name a worse offensive Guard in the league right now than Vaughn. I was sitting next to the Utah bench last year and was chatting with Dee Brown during the Spurs-Jazz game and asked him "So, how much cushion do you give Jacque Vaughn when he's playing? Where does his range begin?" and Brown said something along the lines of "I give him the entire court". I also lost $20 to him (I believe I chronicled that on this site) on a little in-game prop bet, but that's a different story.

Point is, Jaque Vaughn is a horrible offensive player and I don't think that Stoudamire will be able to join the Spurs tonight (though apparently there's still a chance). Either way, you have a guy that can't score and can't really penetrate at all BUT plays excellent defense (Vaughn) or you have a guy who knows none of his teammates and all too frequently hoists ill-advised jumper after ill-advised jumper (Stoudamire) instead of a PG who can force tempo, penetrate, hit mid-range jumpers, get to the line (basically everything you need if you're playing the Over) BUT can't consistently guard the opposing team's Point. And now, the total has jumped 3.5 points UP and the spread has shifted 1 point in S.A.'s favor. Very Peculiar movement. I just got on Phoenix at -6.5 for 1 unit, but I don't feel as comfortable as I'd like. Also leaning towards the Under of 202.5, though I'm waiting to see if my book hits 203 also. I could potentially see the Spurs shelf Vaughn and start Manu at PG with Finley at SG, but the astounding lack of bench depth has me thinking that S.A. needs to slow this baby down as much as possible. Still going to do a little more research on this one, but on Phoenix -6.5 for now.

[buztah]

Suns will roll and run the Spurs silly. This game signals the end of an era/minny dynasty. Sad but true.

[WestsidePete]

I think Suns will be on their game tonite...knockout the champs at home as they are wounded...no Parker and not playing well...couldn't stop Seattle at the end ??...they won't stop Phoenix...

[babaoriley]

Sh!t. I meant to post more but hit send.

If Marion were to guard Manu (which he will if Manu gets hot) and Amare guards Duncan periodically, then S.A. has to rely on some offense from Jacque Vaughn (4.1ppg), Matt Bonner (5.2), Bruce Bowen (6.1), Francisco Elson (3.8), Fab Oberto (5.0), Robert Horry (1.4) and Ime Udoka (4.9). That's all the Spurs have outside of Duncan, Manu (both around 19.5) and Finley (9.9). So, you've got 2 of the Spurs top 5 scorers out (Parker and Barry) and a highly suspect bench left to compensate scoring-wise.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by babaoriley

DH,
I figured that's what happened. I wish we would have been off a little (preferably in Phoenix's direction, maybe Pho -5.5 or so). Ah well. shaking off last night's damage and immersing myself for a little while. What are you leaning DH? Right now, I'm hesitant about a side.

I'm playing a small parlay PHX -6.5 and the under. Parker is always giving the Suns trouble, so with him out the Spurs will have to turn to Manu for quickness. I don't think that's enough against the Suns. And I could see the Spurs play deep into the shot clock.

Suns have turned up the defense lately, and with Diaw starting have taken a big step towards improved team chemistry (messed up by Grant Hill). Much depends on Amare's foul situation. If he gets a couple of quick ones, that changes everything.

I love the under numbers for the Spurs against top five teams. That's definitely worth a play as well.

[babaoriley]

Yep, I'm on Suns -6.5 and Under 203 (Under 202.5 in one bet). We shall see.

[Dark Horse]

Took Amare less than three minutes to get two fouls.

If I hadn't mentioned it a few times before the game, I'd think it pure coincidence.

[babaoriley]

What in the hell is going on with this Phoenix team? Not playing worth a sh!t.

Shooting 35% and 18% from downtown despite having plenty of wide open looks. Just a weird game that Phoenix seems to be playing at half-speed.

Nash with 5-15, 1-6 from downtown with only 5 assists and 2 boards???

Amare 3-7
Barbosa 2-10
Diaw 2-6
Bell 0-3
Hill 3-9
Jeez...

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Took Amare less than three minutes to get two fouls.

If I hadn't mentioned it a few times before the game, I'd think it pure coincidence.

That was a good call.

WTF is going on with the Suns though?
Worst I've seen them play this year by far.

[Dark Horse]

They're playing like they don't care, but refs took Amare out of the game at the 9:21 mark of the 1Q.

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

They're playing like they don't care, but refs took Amare out of the game at the 9:21 mark of the 1Q.

Yeah, if you look at the stats alone, you'd be inclined to say that Phoenix got the officiating edge, but between Manu's flops and Amare's ticky-tack sh!t, it's been a Spurs' advantage.

[babaoriley]

i root for the Spurs, but Manu's a fukking girl.

[babaoriley]

If you were just watching his reactions, you'd think he had been whipped in the knee by a billy club (tripped over his feet), had his eye gouged out by an icepick (was grazed across his forehead), and was shot out of a cannon roughly 13 times.

[babaoriley]

OT is our friend here.

[babaoriley]

Amare is such a fag.

[EGGY6199]

I hate SA babaoriley just win when they should and lose when they should ...cry cry

[EGGY6199]

fix arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by EGGY6199

I hate SA babaoriley just win when they should and lose when they should ...cry cry

That was absolutely horrific. It's not like S.A. played well, it's just Phoenix played as poorly as any NBA team this year. Really, that was the most uninspired performance I've seen all year when you factor in all the variables (Parker and Barry OUT, playing in Phoenix, Spurs on rodeo road-trip, etc.). D'Antoni is a complete puss for not taking the ball directly at Duncan and putting him in foul trouble. When playing a short-handed, old team that gets burned out quickly, you fukking force the tempo. Phoenix didn't do that tonight. If I were a paying fan, I'd want a refund for that shizz.

[babaoriley]

And with that, I'm now 12-2 in my last 14 wagers that involve the Spurs...

Thanks for the missed FT with 9 seconds left, Amare.

[CashMoney]

I want a refund for watching it on TV last night.

[adriano]

I want my bet on Phoenix refunded, ****ing ***********.

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by adriano

I want my bet on Phoenix refunded, ****ing ***********.

If you followed me tonight, you got your bet refunded with spades (see Spurs 2nd Half -3.5).

Make that 14-2 in last 16 Spurs wagers.

That said, fade me tomorrow if you want, adriano.

[imgv94]

Never saw this thread until now.. Wow

Glad to know you on them tomorrow.

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by imgv94

Never saw this thread until now.. Wow

Glad to know you on them tomorrow.

Only wish I had pounced at -2.5. I got Spurs -4 (-110)... Now closing in on 7 and highly likely that it goes to 7.5, 8 IMO.

Great job hitting that at 2.5. I dropped the ball, but 4 is still value in this case. Let's cash this.

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by babaoriley

Only wish I had pounced at -2.5. I got Spurs -4 (-110)... Now closing in on 7 and highly likely that it goes to 7.5, 8 IMO.

Great job hitting that at 2.5. I dropped the ball, but 4 is still value in this case. Let's cash this.

OK, now 15-2 on last 17 SA plays.

I'm going Knicks +7 tonight. Actually strongly considered going Knicks ML, but I'm just playing the side. Already see there's a big thread on this game, so I'll go over there and check it out. Would love to be a contrarian, but not tonight... Also like the over at 182.5, but it's not a play for me at this point. I'll be waiting for the 2H lines.

[babaoriley]

Originally Posted by babaoriley

OK, now 15-2 on last 17 SA plays.

I'm going Knicks +7 tonight. Actually strongly considered going Knicks ML, but I'm just playing the side. Already see there's a big thread on this game, so I'll go over there and check it out. Would love to be a contrarian, but not tonight... Also like the over at 182.5, but it's not a play for me at this point. I'll be waiting for the 2H lines.

Well, now 16-2 on last 18 plays involving the Spurs (would have been 17-2 but over was a no play for me). That game was not for the faint of heart. Knicks blow an 18 point halftime lead and get taken to OT, almost blow the cover, and somehow hang on to only lose by 6. So, for all the cursing I was doing about not playing the Knicks ML tonight (EDIT: at HT), I can find solace in the fact that I was 1-0 tonight, instead of 2-1... 99-93 Spurs.

[adriano]

Cheers, Baba.