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Old 03-01-07, 03:21 AM   #1
LT Profits
 
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Default Basketball Parlay of the Day - Thursday, 3/1/07

SBR will give the winner of the March Basketball Parlay of the Day Contest a sparkling new 19-inch LCD DVI Monitor! Keep in mind guys that I WANT to win this thing myself, so you all better bring your "A" games to beat me!!

For those of you unfamiliar with the contest, here are the rules:


Post your 2 best basketball plays each day, NBA and CBB full-game Sides & Totals allowed only, no halves. Same game Side/Total parlays are ok. You have until five minutes before tip time of your first game to post the selections. Also note that all plays will now be graded against a uniform line! I will post the lines from Pinnacle at approximately 11 AM ET each day. Those of you wishing to make selections before then may do so without posting your lines, and they will be graded against my posted lines.

All parlays will be graded as 10.00 to win 26.00, and I will keep two sets of standings: the Official Standings will be based on parlay units won/lost, and the secondary standings will be on a game-by-game basis ranked by winning percentage.

The Catch: You must have SOME ANALYSIS for each play. Only needs to be one sentence, no big deal, although full paragraphs are ok too. Plays submitted with no analysis will NOT COUNT toward standings.

The player with the most units won after the games of March 31 will win the winner-take-all grand prize. Note that you must play at least 15 days (30 plays) during the month to qualify for the prize! In case of a tie in units, the tiebreaker will be the better winning percentage. If still tied, the contest will be extended with the tied players making one parlay selection per day at the start of April until the tie is broken. NO PASSES will be allowed during this extension period, and any of the tied players doing so will be eliminated regardless of the other player(s) results for that day.

Good Luck to All (but not too much...I need a new monitor!)

Quote:
Fine Print:

1 entry per household and IP address.

Must use lines posted in daily thread by LT Profits

Tie breakers:
Will be decided by win % of individual parlay legs. 2nd tiebreaker is based on additional daily parlays until one person breaks tie.

15 parlays must be made in the month.

All decisions made by SBR with regards to this contest are final.

SBR will pick a DVI LCD monitor that is features on this page when winner is decided.
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Old 03-01-07, 03:37 AM   #2
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These are the Official Grading Lines for today, with the starting times in PACIFIC Time. Please disregard the juice attached to each Side & Total as ALL parlays will be graded as 10.00 to win 26.00.

Code:
Time            Rot     Teams                   Spread          Total
Thu 3/1   	501	Cleveland Cavaliers	**+9.5*-105*	*OVER 188.5*-106*
*05:05 PM	502	Dallas Mavericks	**-9.5*-105*	*UNDER 188.5*-104*
*Thu 3/1	503	Charlotte Bobcats	**+6.5*-105*	*OVER 191*-110*
*07:05 PM	504	Portland Trail Blazers*	**-6.5*-105*	*UNDER 191*+100*
*Thu 3/1	505	Los Angeles Clippers	**+7.5*+103*	*OVER 196.5*-103*
*07:35 PM	506	Seattle Supersonics	**-7.5*-113*	*UNDER 196.5*-107*

Time            Rot     Teams                   Spread          Total
Thu 3/1    	507	Kent State           	**-5.5*-106*	*OVER 131.5*-105*
*04:00 PM	508	Bowling Green      	**+5.5*-104*	*UNDER 131.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	509	Akron                	**-7.5*-107*	*OVER 143.5*-105*
*04:00 PM	510	Buffalo               	**+7.5*-103*	*UNDER 143.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	511	George Washington	**+1*-102*	*OVER 142.5*-105*
*04:00 PM	512	NC Charlotte          	**-1*-108*	*UNDER 142.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	513	Eastern Michigan   	**+6*-103*	*OVER 131.5*-105*
*04:00 PM	514	Central Michigan   	**-6*-107*	*UNDER 131.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	515	Miami Ohio          	**+4*-101*	*OVER 129.5*-105*
*04:00 PM	516	Ohio                   	**-4*-109*	*UNDER 129.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	517	Virginia Tech       	**+2.5*-103*	*OVER 142*-105*
*04:00 PM	518	Virginia               	**-2.5*-107*	*UNDER 142*-105*
*Thu 3/1	519	Northern Illinois      	**+10*-105*	*OVER 144.5*-105*
*04:00 PM	520	Western Michigan 	**-10*-105*	*UNDER 144.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	521	Ball State            	**+11.5*-110*	*OVER 126.5*-105*
*04:00 PM	522	Toledo               	**-11.5*+100*	*UNDER 126.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	523	Louisiana Tech         	**+10.5*-105*	*OVER 144.5*-105*
*06:00 PM	524	New Mexico State   	**-10.5*-105*	*UNDER 144.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	525	North Carolina         	**-5.5*-105*	*OVER 153*-105*
*06:00 PM	526	Georgia Tech          	**+5.5*-105*	*UNDER 153*-105*
*Thu 3/1	527	Memphis U           	**-10.5*-112*	*OVER 148.5*-105*
*06:00 PM	528	UTEP                  	**+10.5*+102*	*UNDER 148.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	529	Nevada                 	**-2*-111*	*OVER 142*-105*
*06:00 PM	530	Utah State             	**+2*+101*	*UNDER 142*-105*
*Thu 3/1	531	Pacific              	**+5*+101*	*OVER 133.5*-105*
*07:00 PM	532	Cal Santa Barbara	**-5*-111*	*UNDER 133.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	533	Cal Irvine          	**+9.5*-101*	*OVER 151.5*-105*
*07:00 PM	534	Long Beach State	**-9.5*-109*	*UNDER 151.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	535	CS Northridge      	**+8*-107*	*OVER 153.5*-105*
*07:00 PM	536	Cal Poly S.L.O.     	**-8*-103*	*UNDER 153.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	537	Boise State      	**+5*-105*	*OVER 141*-105*
*07:00 PM	538	Fresno State     	**-5*-105*	*UNDER 141*-105*
Thu 3/1   	539	Arizona State      	**+10*-103*	*OVER 118.5*-105*
*07:00 PM	540	Stanford            	**-10*-107*	*UNDER 118.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	541	USC                   	**+3*-102*	*OVER 146*-105*
*07:00 PM	542	Washington U     	**-3*-108*	*UNDER 146*-105*
*Thu 3/1	543	UCLA                  	**-1*-107*	*OVER 116.5*-105*
*07:30 PM	544	Washington State  	**+1*-103*	*UNDER 116.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	545	Arizona                	**-3.5*-108*	*OVER 151.5*-105*
*07:30 PM	546	California             	**+3.5*-102*	*UNDER 151.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	547	Idaho                  	**+21.5*-105*	*OVER 133.5*-105*
*09:00 PM	548	Hawaii                 	**-21.5*-105*	*UNDER 133.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	549	Drake                  	**+1*-105*	*OVER 148.5*-105*
*04:05 PM	550	Evansville             	**-1*-105*	*UNDER 148.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	551	Indiana State         	**+5.5*-105*	*OVER 121.5*-105*
*06:30 PM	552	Illinois State        	**-5.5*-105*	*UNDER 121.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	553	Tennessee Chat    	**+12*+101*	*OVER 143*-105*
*11:00 AM	554	Davidson               	**-12*-111*	*UNDER 143*-105*
*Thu 3/1	555	Furman              	**+2.5*-103*	*OVER 129.5*-105*
*01:20 PM	556	NC Greensboro    	**-2.5*-107*	*UNDER 129.5*-105*
*Thu 3/1	557	Western Carolina  	**+12*-105*	*OVER 140*-114*
*04:00 PM	558	Appalachian St      	**-12*-105*	*UNDER 140*+104*
*Thu 3/1	559	Georgia Southern   	**+7*-102*	*OVER 127.5*-105*
*06:20 PM	560	Coll Charleston     	**-7*-108*	*UNDER 127.5*-105*

Last edited by LT Profits; 03-01-07 at 12:13 PM..
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Old 03-01-07, 09:43 AM   #3
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This is great. Nice.
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Old 03-01-07, 11:53 AM   #4
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UNC Greensboro(Have @ -2.5)
Greensboro has already beat Furman both times they have played them this year... Greensboro is 4-1 in their last 5 games SU... If they are to win this game they will definitely cover IMO... Furman is 1-4 in their last 5 games ATS... Think Greensboro definitely wins and covers the small spread this afternoon...

Evansville(Have @ -1.5)
The Aces have been playin some pretty good ball as of late... Sure Drake has the better record, but Evansville is no push over(They already beat Drake by 21 this season)... Evansville 18-8 ATS this season! Drake is 2-6 in their last 8 games ATS including only a 3 pt win against the Aces @ home... Evansville 5-1 in their last 6 games ATS...

Best of luck today! Sure is nice of SBR to offer up a prize for this! LT thanks for putting on the contest man!

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Last edited by Peyton2MarvinN06; 03-01-07 at 12:00 PM..
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Old 03-01-07, 12:04 PM   #5
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Washington St +1 -103 - You get a team that is nearly equal with its opponent with revenge (39 times over) on its mind. You also get this team at home playing in what will be a phenomenal atmosphere. Wazzu should have beat this squad on the road and get the chance to redeem themselves tonight.

Virginia -2.5 -107 - Rivalry game. Revenge factor. One of the best backcourts in the country with one of the best homecourt advantages as well.
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Old 03-01-07, 12:10 PM   #6
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Virginia -2.5

I see Virginia winning this game here by double digits. Virginia Tech is a very streaky road team, and although both of these teams are still in the race for the ACC reg. season crown, I think Virginia, with the home court advantage will get it done here tonight.

UNC-G -2.5

Furman has been struggling down the stretch, losing their last 3 games, where as UNC-G has been pretty hot, winning 4 of their last 5. I like them to win here again today and cover the small number as well.

Good luck everyone!
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Old 03-01-07, 12:16 PM   #7
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Peyton2Marvin.

GOOD NEWS! Your Evansville play is at -1.

Oh and thanks for the props bud!
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Old 03-01-07, 12:19 PM   #8
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Sea -7.5: Seattle is a team that plays considerably better at home and has the "revenge factor" in their favour. The Clippers have been going through the motions the whole season, and their team chemistry has to be affected after the Livingston Nightmare. They have also been weak on the road this year.

Dal -9.5: C'mon, it's Dallas. They were running on all cylinders against the T-Wolves and have lost 3 games all year at home SU. Cleveland has been vulneralbe on the road and closing out games. They won't need to close out this one b/c Mavs will win by 20.

As you can tell from this analysis, I am far from an "expert"
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Old 03-01-07, 12:53 PM   #9
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NC Greensboro -2.5
This one should be a nice one. UNC has beaten Furman up alot and while I think high stakes will make the dogs come out and play, im just not convince that they can handle the favorites.

Akron -7½
This team is great...but has a horrible 0-5 ATS performance against buffalo but you must realize that this is based on a different teamset and past performance. Although i was actually going to go with an over129.5 for the Furman/Greensboro game which i like alot since there playing for something...i do believe this line is a bit too low.


Heh, I want a monitor!!
Bad luck everyone else!!
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Previous Day(Feb 9, 2007)
NBA 3-0 (1.000) +3.00 Units
NCAAB 1-2 (.333) -0.75 Units
NHL 1-0 (1.000) +5.00 Units
SOCCER 0-0 (.000) 0.00 Units
Overall 5-2 (.714) +0.90 Units

Total
NBA 18-14-1 (.545) +2.39 Units
NCAAB 22-10 (.688) +16.25 Units
NHL 13-17 (.464) -16.14 Units
SOCCER 17-9 (.654) +5.73 Units
Overall 70-50-1 (.579) +8.23 Units
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Old 03-01-07, 01:33 PM   #10
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Davidson -12 Davidson will win this game and their average win is by 17.5 points this season. They also beat up Chattanooga by 30 points earlier in the season.

Dallas Mavs -9.5To quote Ira Wilton "C'mon, it's Dallas". The Cavs will either win or get blown 20 points. Dallas is 34-2 the last 36, won the last 20 in a row at home and will make 21 by at least 9.5 points.
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Old 03-01-07, 02:01 PM   #11
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Virginia -2.5 - It's Senior Night at the JPJ, and the building is sure to be rocking for a Cavs team that suddenly controls its own destiny in the ACC. The visitor is a Virginia Tech team that I consider the most overrated team in the nation. The only reason this team is even ranked is because of three glamorous wins over UNC and Duke. Well, guess what? Those teams aren't anywhere near as good as people used to think. This VT team is more likely to give performances like losing by 25 at NC State, losing by 11 at BC, losing by 9 at FSU, and losing to weak teams like NC State (again, at home), Marshall, GW, and Western Michigan. The Wahoos have the best backcourt in the nation, and they carry the team to an easy revenge win over a highly overrated team.

U Dub -3 - Similar formula here, except for the conference title aspect. The fact of the matter is that Washington is one of those teams, like Tennessee, that is almost an auto-play at home any time the line is anything near pk. The Huskies proved there were no matchup problems with the Trojans when they gave them a tough battle in LA. Now, at home, UW rolls against a USC team that has been mediocre on the road this year, including most recently a 10-point loss at previously winless Arizona State. USC's home record makes this line cheap enough to lay it.
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Old 03-01-07, 02:18 PM   #12
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POR -6.5
Fading Charlotte without rest and without purpose.

DAL -9.5.
Prefer the 1H angle here, because DAL allows backdoors. Other than that, these two teams aren't on the same page. DAL will be up by 20 pts at one point during the game so hoping that sticks.

Last edited by Dark Horse; 03-01-07 at 07:00 PM..
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Old 03-01-07, 02:20 PM   #13
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Memphis U -10.5
I have noted in the past that a 10.5 point line is always a signal (to me) to roll with the favorite. I'd love to see some evidence to back this up... Anyway, Memphis is in that position I love: needing to pull off style points to push towards the very high (1,2) seeds. The only way Memphis can garner more respect is by simply polishing off clearly inferior opponents. No letdowns. (Think Kansas -22 against Iowa St, then winning by 44). They'll roll tonight.

UVA -2.5
Man, this seems like the squarest of square picks. I'm not sure I'd call Va. Tech the most "overrated" team in the country, but definitely one of the most erratic. Razz pretty much summed it up with his analysis. First of all, I don't consider a win over Duke (MY pick for most overrated team in the nation and a team that will NOT, under any circumstances, win 2 games in the tourney) to be that impressive. I think Virginia is clearly the better team, here, and only laying 2.5 is a gift.
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Old 03-01-07, 02:45 PM   #14
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Western Carolina +12
Western Carolina-Appalachian St UNDER 140

i look for WC to keep it close and the game to go under for my parlay of the day

thanks
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Old 03-01-07, 02:49 PM   #15
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I obviously can't win, but would like to play along. Going with a pair of 10½-point favorites.


Memphis -10½ at UTEP
A lot of the same in babaoriley's angle as the Tigers really need to go out strong in order to impress a few more voters and selection committee members. Believe Memphis is a bit upset they aren't getting as much respect as they feel they deserve, chance for them to move up with a BIG win now that both A&M and Florida have lost this week.


New Mexico St -10½ vs La Tech
Aggies will want to get even for close loss at La Tech earlier, and are coming their only home loss of season. New Mexico State slaps Bulldogs around.
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Old 03-01-07, 02:54 PM   #16
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BOWLING GREEN +5.5: Kent State is looking for its 20th win here, but the Golden Flashes are hardly automatic in this road favorite role. After all they are under .500 on the road at 6-8 SU, getting outscored by an average of -1.8 points per game away from home. Now granted the Falcons are far from a powerhouse, but at least they have a winning 7-6 SU record at home compared to just 3-10 on the road, and they are 3-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings with Kent.

CAVALIERS/MAVERICKS OVER 188.5: The UNDER is 9-2-1 in the last 12 Cleveland games overall, but we feel that is actually giving us some nice value on the OVER here. After all Cavs road games are averaging 189.8 points per game this season, and you can probably tack on a few points to that here as the Cavaliers usually open things up more when they are underdogs, as evidenced by the fact that the OVER is 7-2-1 the last ten times they were in this role! Dallas will almost certainly hold up their end of this total, as the Mavericks are averaging an impressive 103.5 points per game here at home.
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Old 03-01-07, 02:57 PM   #17
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Virginia -2.5
fade Virginia Tech. Senior Night winner here.

Georgia Tech +5.5
I don't see UNC getting motivated for this road game.

GTLA
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Old 03-01-07, 03:00 PM   #18
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540 stanford - 10 - 107 Stanford still in need of a few wins to make the dance, they get one here

543 UCLA - 1 - 107 Bruins gearing up for tournament time, get big win on the road
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Old 03-01-07, 03:13 PM   #19
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Seattle -7.5 -113

Devestating injury to Livingston, team inconsistent all year, and even if Cassel plays, relying on a 37 yr old to play mega minutes is a recipe for disaster. More playing against LA, than playing the Sonics.

Dallas -9.5 -105

Cleveland too inconsistent on the road........and after all as others have said, it is Dallas.
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Old 03-01-07, 03:24 PM   #20
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Play #1: NBA: Cleveland Cavs and Dallas Mavs, OVER 188.5
Both of these team can play a high octane game, and I suspect this game will go over 200. Therefore at 188.5, there is a lot of room for error.

Play #2: NCAA: AKRON -7.5 over Buffalo
Akron is picking its play up to try to make it into the Top 25 and land itself a spot in the dance. More motivation to them.
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Old 03-01-07, 05:08 PM   #21
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So many good games to choose from, but these are my favorite 2:

Miami +4
Ohio is simply not that good, I know how bad this school is at attracting it's fans and tonight the fans will have one last boozefest before finals week begins in another week. Miami is OU's rival and very capable of beating the Bobcats at the Convo. OU can't even win by DDs, so I conside myself to have a great shot to win this bet tonight.

Georgia Tech +5.5
UNC is and has been overrated. Again they are getting respect not deserved, but that is fine because they better bring it against a hungry Jackets squad.

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Old 03-01-07, 05:11 PM   #22
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Hey, LT, were you waiting around until I posted just so I couldn't fade you?!
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Old 03-01-07, 05:40 PM   #23
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Hey Willie,

SCOREBOARD!

Code:
FEBRUARY STANDINGS 
Name            W       L       W/P     Units
LT Profits	8	18	0	28
Willie Bee 	2	8	1	-19
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Old 03-01-07, 06:16 PM   #24
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Appalachian St. -12: App St is the best team in the southern conference and they should get a blowout win here as they need to win the tourney.

Ohio -4: Ohio has been very good at home, and should look to win their last home game pretty easily.
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Old 03-01-07, 06:18 PM   #25
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Virginia -2.5
Virginia Tech: 0-10 ATS Away when the line is +3 to -3

UTEP +10.5
Memphis: 3-11 ATS off an Under
UTEP: 15-4 ATS off a SU loss
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Old 03-01-07, 06:45 PM   #26
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OHIO -4 They took Mia OH to OT at Mia OH. Tonight is senior night and 4 is a small enough number to cover

BUFF +7.5 They played horrible at Akron earlier in the year and only lost by 7, they are at least an average team at home (3-3 in conf), so I'll take the pts.
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Old 03-01-07, 06:47 PM   #27
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Bobcats +6 1/2 - Charlotte scored 120 last night, Portland scored 73 points in their last. Both teams got creamed! Look for Charlotte to score similarly tonight.

Cha/Port over 191 - Portland will be looking to improve off that 73 point fiasco at home, and have scored over 100 points in 5 of their last 6 home games
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Old 03-01-07, 06:48 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
LAC +7.5
Clips got the wake-up call they needed with Livingston injury. Kaman has returned and Clips are now in pre-playoff mode. Their intensity should show it.

DAL -9.5.
Prefer the 1H angle here, because DAL will allow backdoors. Other than that, these two teams aren't on the same page. DAL will be up by 20 pts at one point during the game so hoping that sticks.


Edit: Hope Gollum plays, otherwise LAC play is no good.
like both plays
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Old 03-01-07, 06:59 PM   #29
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Fresno St. Both teams are 8-6 in WAC Conference play, and tied for 3rd place, so this game is of critical importance in the standings. I look for Fresno to win this game handily, as this is their 'Last Home Game' of the season, and they're off momentum-building back-to-back underdog wins.

Akron Buffalo sucks now and Akron is rolling. Akron has lost 5 straight at Buffalo, but now they want to give Buffalo 7 points?? Yeah right...
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Old 03-01-07, 07:06 PM   #30
ShamsWoof10
 
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Miami OH -4.5 I like the home court in the MAC...

NC Charolette -1.5 I like NCC to shoot well from the field tonight and the line does not look right... if these lines are off change them because I did not scroll up to look

Thanks
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Old 03-01-07, 07:33 PM   #31
rjt721
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Utah St. +2: Nevada simply has no motivation to show up in this game. They have already locked up the conference title and the #1 seed in the conference tourney. Also, don't feel a loss here would drastically hurt their seeding in the big dance. Conversely, Utah St. is desperate for a win. They are also playing at home, where they are 13-0. I expect the Aggies to win this one going away.

Washington St. +1: I really like this UCLA team and think they will go very deep in the tourney again this year, but this is a tough spot for them. UCLA has a great shot at a #1 seed regardless of the outcome of this game. Wash St, meanwhile, is looking to avenge a loss to the Bruins in a game they controlled much of the way. Even though they are ranked just outside the top ten, this Cougar squad still feels they have a lot to prove to be considered an elite team nationally. A win here against the premier team in the conference would go a long way toward doing just that.
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Old 03-01-07, 08:24 PM   #32
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Memphis -6 1st half Memphis dominates in large spread games and no reason why they should here. Memphis wins by 20 plus and owns the first half.

Nevada -1 1st halfNevada has been playing great ball and is a top team. Utah State is home, but Nevada should show more talent on the court early. Utah State will keep it close in the 2nd half, but Nevada should have the first half.
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Old 03-01-07, 08:32 PM   #33
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Idaho +21.5 -105
IDAHO is 3-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3seasons

USC UNDER 146 -105
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997. Playing against the odds.
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Old 03-01-07, 08:44 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Filthyness View Post
Memphis -6 1st half Memphis dominates in large spread games and no reason why they should here. Memphis wins by 20 plus and owns the first half.

Nevada -1 1st halfNevada has been playing great ball and is a top team. Utah State is home, but Nevada should show more talent on the court early. Utah State will keep it close in the 2nd half, but Nevada should have the first half.
Filthyness, I think we're only doing full game totals/sides...
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Old 03-01-07, 09:43 PM   #35
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UCLA/WASH ST Over 116.5
Low total based on last meeting, both teams scoring over 65 in conf. & on the road & home respectfully. UCLA lights up the 3 pnt'ers in a knock down drag out brawl......I hope.

IDAHO+21.5
IDAHO 3-0 ATS as road dogs of +18.5-more this season, HAWAII 0-5 ATS as home favs of 18.5-more dating back to '97, hopefully that doesn't change......plus public on HAWAII & it's just a hell of a lot of points.
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