[Jay Edgar]

Jay Edgar has a birthday Tuesday.
So a better slate than Monday's might be nice . . .

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 0-3, -3.00u
(LAC, GS, ATL)
YTD 205-353, +69.61u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 0-3, -3.15u
YTD 302-248 (.549) +41.60u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 CLE 70
2 DET 68
3 DAL 66
4 UTH 62
5 TOR 61
6 HOU 60
7 MIA 59
8 NY 56
9 CHI 54
10 SAN 54
11 SAC 54
12 NOK 53
13 LAX 53
14 POR 51
15 MIN 51
16 DEN 48
17 NJ 47
18 ORL 47
19 MEM 46
20 PHX 46
21 LAC 44
22 ATL 43
23 PHI 42
24 SEA 42
25 GS 41
26 IND 40
27 CHA 37
28 MIL 37
29 BOS 30
30 WAS 30



EDGAR LINES FOR 02.13.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

MIA 5.7/200 over POR

NJ 2.8/132 over SAN

DAL 0.4/103 over MIL

MEM 1.8/117 over NOK

CHI 3.9/157 over TOR

HOU 4.9/174 over SAC

LAX 3.0/138 over NY


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

POR +244, MIA -167

SAN +157, NJ -112

DAL +115, MIL +122

NOK +139, MEM +101

TOR +188, CHI -132

SAC +210, HOU -146

NY +165, LAX -116


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

POR +589, MIA +109

SAN +312, NJ +162

DAL +214, MIL +228

NOK +267, MEM +184

TOR +398, CHI +136

SAC +466, HOU +124

NY +331, LAX +155

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Tuesday.

A cell on the spreadsheet was overwritten in error and the Rockets were getting shortchanged in the original top post this afternoon. That's been fixed.

GL

[trustbutverify]

Happy birthday

[hicetnunc11]

Happy Birthday Mr Edgar

[bigboydan]

Happy birthday Mr.Jay

[Halo]

Happy Birthday!

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks all.

Bill James had a piece in the Abstract many years ago about how certain elite hitters seemed to have great games on their birthdays --Dale Murphy (that's how long ago it was) hitting something like .750 sticks in my mind.

I have no real recollection of good or bad birthday betting ventures, as most birthdays after the 12th (bowling party) and the 18th (illegal substances) are a blur.

But we'll take a run at it, cheered by the fact that so far the 5% method has seen some real whipsaw results from one day to the next.

[trustbutverify]

ATS selections in the 5-16% range have been especially efficient g-man. I look foward to seeing how this subset ends up at seasons end.

[tnkwilli]

Happy Birthday Jay

Thanks!

[onlòóker]

Happy Birthday Jay.

Monday was a terrible one, but it will be made up plus some on Tuesday.

[bside]

Well Happy Birthday Sir! May the doggies bark loud today.

[AC1318]

Happy Birthday JAY
mine are usually lucky ones
sure yours will be the same
especially after a 3-0 favorite night

[wrongturn]

Happy Birthday Jay!

A quick question. SAN ranking is higher than NJ but NJ is favorite in your matchup. Is it home court advantage that causes this adjustment? It seems to me that too much advantage is put on NJ home court.

[Jay Edgar]

WT,

You're right about home court. It took me a while to get used to what a big factor it is in the ratings. Especially so with these two teams. Over the last five seasons, SAN had the third largest home/road differential in the league and NJ the 4th largest. Thus the raw ratings of 54-47 for SAN get turned into 57-43 for NJ on a 100% scale. NJ also gets a slight uptick for the extra day off, which has been worth about 1% extra wins historically.

[wrongturn]

I see. I thought you only use previous 10 games result for everything. Another interesting matchup is MEM -1.81 vs NOK, with NOK ranking higher and playing at home. Any other factors make this major shift?

[wrongturn]

Never mind. MEM plays at home. Sorry.

[Jay Edgar]

No problem.

It's the same thing -- the road punishes NOK about 8-9% and home court helps MEM about 10-11%. Blend it all together and it's 54-46 for MEM at MEM.

[bigboydan]

Lets get our units back today Jay.

[AC1318]

I like mem at home tonight
was on hornets other night against them

[babaoriley]

Happy B-day Jay. And by bringing up my favorite baseball player of all-time (the egregiously under-appreciated Dale Murphy), I am now betting your full slate of NBA 5% plays. Karma, baby.

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks.

I lived in Atlanta for a little while during the end of his era -- the Chuck Tanner years, with Omar (the Outmaker) Moreno "hitting" ahead of him (with that .285 OBP, not counting all the CSs), and Bob Horner breaking down behind him. He always deserved better.

[babaoriley]

Yep, with Rafeal Ramirez, Bob Horner, Terry Harper, Claudell Washington, Glenn Hubbard, Ken Oberkfell, a past-his-prime Chris Chambless, Gerald Perry, Bruce Benedict, and a host of other, even less palatable options hitting around him, the Murph didn't exactly have a stellar supporting cast, yet he won 2 MVP's in a row, won 5 consecutive gold gloves, had a 30-30 season, and was a great person and teammate who played the game right.

Quote by Joe Torre (then manager):
"If you're a coach, you want him as a player. If you're a father, you want him as a son. If you're a woman, you want him as a husband. If you're a kid, you want him as a father. What else can you say about the guy?"

OK, I'm done hijacking this thread.

[Dark Horse]

Happy birthday!

And thanks for all the hard work and sharing.

[tnkwilli]

Now just so I am clear, According to Jay's System you would not bet the New Jersey game tonight because it is farther than 20% off the Edgar line? I noticed he graded a loss the other night which was 22% off the line I believe.

[Illusion]

Happy Birthday Jay!!! Drink one for me bud.

[durito]

Originally Posted by tnkwilli

Now just so I am clear, According to Jay's System you would not bet the New Jersey game tonight because it is farther than 20% off the Edgar line? I noticed he graded a loss the other night which was 22% off the line I believe.

I believe all plays 5%+ off are counted in the results, but the ones over 20% have done poorly.

[DrSlamm]

nice 4th quarter portland/milwaukee

[onlòóker]

Originally Posted by DrSlamm

nice 4th quarter portland/milwaukee

You can add the Kings to that. They did their share of choking in the 4th as well.

[Jay Edgar]

Originally Posted by DrSlamm

nice 4th quarter portland/milwaukee

And nice 5th quarter Sacramento.

Now once more into the breach with the MFNYK.

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks to all for the birthday wishes. For the record, we had to get just past the stroke of midnight where I sit -- and out of my birthday -- to post a graded moneyline winner on this slate. (That Bucks collapse and the Sacto OT loss – in combination – really stung.)

I left the screen for a long while tonight and was shocked to see that Memphis closed below +101, according to Vegas Insider at least, and so doesn’t qualify for grading. (The final listing on the SBR archive is -114/+104, but I’m pretty sure that’s from earlier in the day.) So we don’t get to grade the Griz win, even though qualifying prices were available much of the day. Hope somebody besides me had it.

Also kudos to the linesetters for the low line on the Bulls. Seems to me that most previous nights of the season Toronto would have been +188 or better and thus a qualifying play (and win) in this spot.

GAP TEAM ATS ML
9 SAC WIN -100
15 POR LOSS -100
16 NY WIN 277
33 MIL WIN -100
37 NJ LOSS -100


MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 1-4, -1.23u
(POR, NJ, MIL, SAC, NY)
YTD 206-357, +68.38u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 3-2, +0.90u
YTD 305-250 (.550) +42.50u