[Jay Edgar]

EDGAR LINE vs THE FINAL NUMBER
(playing all teams whose estimated win % is 5% or more higher in the Edgar line than in the closing Pinny line)

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Monday, 1-0, +1.05u
(MIA)
YTD 113-185, +38.19u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Monday, 1-0, +1.00u
YTD 161-135 (.544), +19.25u

These YTD figures are now double checked and accurate -- see the other thread tonight recapping the first 3/10ths of the season.

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 WAS 66
2 DAL 65
3 PHX 64
4 SAN 61
5 DET 61
6 CHI 60
7 MIL 60
8 LAX 58
9 HOU 56
10 MIA 54
11 UTH 53
12 POR 53
13 DEN 52
14 GS 52
15 TOR 49
16 MIN 49
17 IND 48
18 NJ 48
19 SEA 46
20 SAC 46
21 BOS 45
22 PHI 44
23 CLE 44
24 NY 40
25 LAC 39
26 CHA 38
27 ORL 38
28 MEM 37
29 ATL 36
30 NOK 32

EDGAR LINES FOR 12.26.06
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)
WAS 7.2/278 over MEM

IND 2.7/131 over HOU

DET 5.8/205 OVER NJ

MIN 2.5/126 over CHI

SA 5.0/179 OVER MIL

DAL 7.0/266 over CHA

UTH 6.2/225 over LAC

PHX 5.0/178 over POR

DEN 5.5/190 over BOS

SEA 5.5/190 over NOK

GS 4.5/167 over PHI

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-OFF method)
MEM +349, WAS -226

HOU +156, IND -111

NJ +249, DET -170

CHI +150, MIN -107

MIL +216, SA -150

CHA +333, DAL -217

LAC +277, UTH -186

POR +215, PHX -149

BOS +231, DEN -154

NOK +230, SEA -158

PHI +201, GS -140

[bigboydan]

Jay, I hear that McGrady might return to the lineup tonight. Will that effect your numbers at all?

[Jay Edgar]

Won't effect the numbers. I don't factor personnel into the numbers -- can't find a reliable way to do it.

Wouldn't blame anyone if it changed their thinking, though.

But here's a highly-opinionated, unproven observation: the public (and thus the line) overreacts initially to injuries/suspensions/returns from injury. The value is almost always against the personnel-motivated line move.

The IND-HOU game is a stew. My opinions: Pacers are overvalued generally. HOU is much worse off without Yao (maybe as much as the public thinks) and marginally better off (not nearly as much as the public thinks) it TMac rushes back.

Weird day so far with popular dogs. MIL, LAC, NOK, BOS, PHI -- all coming down.

[bigboydan]

I think i'm going to play very cautiously tonight, because of these movers.

The thing i'm a bit worried about the road teams tonight is the travel time during the x-mas break.

[Jay Edgar]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

I think i'm going to play very cautiously tonight, because of these movers.

The thing i'm a bit worried about the road teams tonight is the travel time during the x-mas break.

God I love the internet. In <10 minutes, we can check it out via Don Best archives. (Note that this uses the CRIS ML -- no doubt there was better value on ML dogs with Pinny.)

ROAD DOGS of 3 or more on DEC 26:

2005
ATS 4-3, +.85u
ML 3-4, +1.50u

2004
ATS 2-5, -3.25u
ML 1-6, 0.00u (GS +700 @ SAC saves the day)

2003
ATS 6-2, +3.90u
ML 3-5, +1.00u

ALL 3 YEARS
ATS 12-10, +1.50u
ML 7-15, +2.50u

[Jay Edgar]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

Jay, I hear that McGrady might return to the lineup tonight.

Bottom just fell out of the line.

Um, I guess the shootaround went OK this morning.

[shrax4]

I'm slightly confused with your system. Do you only make picks based on who had the more favorable lines?

You have POR +215, PHX -149 while the lines are currently POR +650, PHX - 900. Would that mean you would play POR due to the favorable ML? Or would you just take them ATS?

Thanks.

[Jay Edgar]

Originally Posted by shrax4

I'm slightly confused with your system. Do you only make picks based on who had the more favorable lines?

Whenever the Pinny ML closes at a more favorable number than the strike price ML, the method would have you play one unit on that ML and one unit ATS at whatever the closing pointspread is.

That's how we measure the method's performance, anyway.
Obviously, anybody can use the info however they wish. Including playing ATS but not ML, or vice versa, or playing one for less (for example, playing the dog ML to win a unit rather than risk a unit). The results tell us that the ATS bets have a higher winning percentage but the ML bets have returned a larger overall profit if you risk about 1 unit on each.

But yeah, in the Portland example, if (if!) the Pinny ML closes at higher than +215 we'll count it as a play on POR both at the closing ML and the closing pointspread.

Also, as it happens, as a very general rule waiting until the last moment before betting will often (but not always) get you something close to the best dog ML price, particularly when the dog is a mutt in the public's opinion -- such as your Portland Trailblazers -- and the opponent is a (well deserved) public darling like the Suns.

Personally, I do play both ATS and ML. It's amazing how hard it is to commit to dropping real money on a big dog ML -- but once you get used to it and hit a couple, it's not so bad.

[shrax4]

Thanks for the reply, I'm sure you've explained that before but I appreciate you doing it once more.

Best of luck for the rest of the year, I look forward to your posts.

[bboots]

another question please....do you need to wait until the closing Pinny line...or if you see a better line elsewhere earlier in the day should you take that??

[Jay Edgar]

Originally Posted by bboots

another question please....do you need to wait until the closing Pinny line...or if you see a better line elsewhere earlier in the day should you take that??

Definitely advise the latter.

I use the closing line for tracking only because of the simplicity and the fighting chance at an objective standard -- but definitely grab the best number you can if you like a side. I'd never advise suspending that rule.

This crazy Houston line for example -- if you decided to take the plunge on the Rockets, better to have the +315 that was around earlier this PM than the +190 available now.
(Though we'll record it with the +190, or whatever the close).

[DarkProdigy]

Jesus, wheres the instructional for this...

[bigboydan]

Originally Posted by DarkProdigy

Jesus, wheres the instructional for this...

Heres Jay's FAQ's thread bud.