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| 4. BetJamaica | SBR Rating A+ | BetJamaica Review |
| 5. LegendZ Sports | SBR Rating A+ | LegendZ Review |
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| 2. The Greek Sports Book | 217 total points | The Greek Review |
| 3. 5Dimes | 181 total points | 5Dimes Review |
| 4. Matchbook | 159 total points | Matchbook Review |
| 5. Pinnacle Sports | 148 total points | Pinnacle Sports Review |
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For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.
Methodology:
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For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.
Methodology:
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#3 | ||||
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Great work as usual. Many thanks.
Is it a simple matter to report on margins of victory in those same games? I can imagine how it might not be -- but if it is, I for one would be happy to see it. |
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Quote:
Could you clarify?
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#5 | ||||
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I didn't phrase it very well. Should have asked about "margin of victory in all NBA games in that time period."
Meant to ask this: without regard to the spread, what % of all games "land on 1" (the winning team's straight-up margin of victory is 1 point). What % of games "land on" 2, and 3, etc? I'm routinely living in terror of a 1 point win by the team I chose to back at -2 rather than with the ML, etc. So it'd be nice to see a full MOV picture to get a sense of how many games that are in doubt in the last minute (say, MOV of 7 or less) actually land on 1 or land on 2. |
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All NBA regular season scores from the 1990/1 season through November 17th of the 2006/7 season (available from http://www.covers.com/) are included (18,368 games in total).
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#7 | ||||
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Jeez, Ganch, we could time you with a sundial. 38 minutes!!!
Seriously, many thanks. ![]() |
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#8 | |||||
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Quote:
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#9 | ||||
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Was there really an NBA game decided by 92 points in the last 15 years?
(I'm sure that if someone identifies it the rest of us will say, "Oh yeah, I remember that.") |
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#10 | |||||
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(The final score according to Database Basketball was DET 92 SEA 98. I've modified the chart to reflect the correction.)
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Quote:
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#13 | ||||
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Can someone explain what the difference is between the first chart with the push frequencies and then what looks like the same chart that says MOV on it?
N G |
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#14 | ||||
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The first chart lists push frequencies ATS. In other words, for a spread of, say, ±3, the first chart indicates that there is a roughly 3.91% frequency that bet pushing. This can be extrapolated upon, so that one might say that for a spread of about ±3, there is a roughly 3.91% frequency of the favorite winning by exactly 3 points.
The second chart is simply a margin of victory chart. It indicates the historical frequency of the winning team's margin of victory being as specificed.
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#15 | ||||
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Ganch- That's very good information on push frequency. If you include 1/2, that is 6.5 and 7.5, and look for value instead of just push info I think that you'll find that 6 and 7 will be the key numbers in the NBA and 2 in the NCAA tourney. I haven't personally run the numbers but looked at charts from others.
Some say that there is value to buying 1/2 pt off/on 7 in the NBA and there's definitely value buying off/on 2 during the NCAA tourney. |
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#16 | |||||
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I gotta admit I'm that I don't really understand what you mean about "include ½ ... and look for value instead of just push info". This is, after all a push probability chart from which one would have to derive the value of moving on to a given spread. I've certainly heard that about 6s and 7s and NCAA BB 2s as well, but I've not seen any evidence of this in the historical data.
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#17 | ||||
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Great work here. Thx
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#18 | ||||
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So, looking at the spreads 2-10, the push frequency varies between 3.5%(4 points) and 5.2% (9 points)
The actual MOV frequencies for 4 and 9 points are about the same though. Do any of you see any reason as to why a 9 point push ATS should be more common than a 4 point push ATS? If we don't, does it not make more sense to estimate all the push frequencies for spreads of 2-10 to the same percentage, maybe 4% or so? (Or rather 4.x%, where you can estimate x better than I can) Last edited by the_fredrik; 05-22-2007 at 07:54 AM.. |
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#19 | ||||
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thanks a lot for posting the push frequencies for all the sports ganch, we all appreciate it very much
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#20 | ||||
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Interesting stuff...thanks
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#21 | ||||
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I dont understand the importance of these numbers?
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#22 | ||||
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I dont understand than number.
hay i'm new member!!! thank you!!!!!! Last edited by Sean; 05-10-2008 at 05:51 PM.. Reason: link removed |
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#23 | ||||
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God Bless you and your plays
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#24 | ||||
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thanks
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#25 | ||||
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I am trying to write a simulation program for prediction of betting NBA, but I am lack with some info of the following. Please illustrate me step-by-step how to calcuate the following things:
1. How to calculate NBA Power Rating and Line spread, O/U ATS? If you could, please reply to me so I can finish my program. This is part of my research in statistic. |
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#26 | ||||
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mistake post
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#27 | |||||
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Quote:
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#28 | ||||
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If a game with a spread of 2.5 finished with a favorite margin of victory within 2 points of 2.5 (i.e., fave by 1, 2, 3, or 4) it would count as a (full) push for that M.o.V. (and only that M.o.V.)
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#29 | ||||
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bulls or celtics?
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